Posted on 02/10/2016 4:56:10 PM PST by Elderberry
The big story coming out of New Hampshire, arguably: Ted Cruz finishing third with a financial outlay of just $580,000, which easily was the best ROI for votes for any candidate in either primary.
Cruz, dismissed by the media after his Iowa victory, and his third-place finish in New Hampshire, is in the game for the duration. In a Wednesday conversation in Jacksonville with his campaign chairman, Chad Sweet, a wide range of topics came up. Among them: Cruz's strategy for Florida; how he intends to dislodge Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, the Sunshine State's favorite suns; campaign strategy more generally, including deep data analysis and the ground game essential to winning competitive primaries.
The first question that came to mind: why, with South Carolina promising to be a free for all as it was in 2000, Cruz's campaign chairman was in town.
Sweet said that the campaign "believes in going anywhere, anytime," and with Rubio failing in New Hampshire, the time was now to make the case to voters in Rubio's back yard that Cruz was a "consistent conservative" and "change agent," as opposed to Rubio, for whom "amnesty shows otherwise.
Jeb Bush, the choice of the money men in Northeast Florida, is equally problematic, and vulnerable on the issue of Common Core and other issues, to be sure.
Sweet said that Cruz will make the sale "handshake by handshake," helped along by members of his team like former Duval GOP Chair Rick Hartley, described by Sweet as one of the "Florida heavyweights" backing Cruz.
And Sweet believes others will follow. Cruz, according to the Real Clear Polling average, is well ahead of Rubio and Bush, with momentum from the New Hampshire win, where Cruz "beat both [Floridians] in a state where the media counted him out."
Part of the key: the ground game, augmented by Camp Cruz, in which unused dorms and old hotels are rented for temporary housing for the Cruz team, at a significant cost savings. And by Cruz Kits ("FEC approved," Sweet assured me), which contain yard signs and other paraphenalia. And by Strike Forces, comprised of "seasoned volunteers from the GOTV effort in other elections."
These elements, augmented by "cutting edge technology" and the "highest investment in deep data analysis," have helped Cruz to two strong showings while maintaining the highest cash on hand of any campaign.
Targeting high propensity voters, Sweet said, was "campaign 101."
The real key to Cruz's strategy, and the "harder part," is the use of data analytics to identify new voters, especially those who might have been "disenchanted in the past," and getting the message to them in a "tailored way."
"Identify[ing] the low propensity voters who other campaigns are ignoring," and "tailoring issues and how they think about those issues," has been key to Cruz's success thus far.
And clearly, will continue to be key.
The Cruz campaign outperformed expectations in Iowa, Sweet said, where the media presumed that a high turnout would lead to a Cruz loss; instead, with the turnout of Republicans up over 50 percent from 2008, Cruz got the highest number of votes of any Republican in Iowa history.
And those votes in that "astonishing victory, even in the face of standing up to ethanol," Sweet affirms, span a "high variety of demographics," including seemingly disparate camps like libertarians and evangelicals, as well as millennials and the non-college educated.
Sweet believes that Cruz is uniquely positioned as one of "only three campaigns with the resources and the infrastructure" for the long haul.
The other two: Bush and Trump. Not, he affirmed, Marco Rubio.
Rubio "spent an inordinate amount of resources in Iowa and New Hampshire," including $15 million on a fifth place finish in the Granite State.
"Rubio depleted his coffers," Sweet said, and "has a ground game in those two states," with some minor strength in Nevada, Sweet added.
Now? "Marco is dangerously close to being out of ammunition," even as the media "has a love affair with [Rubio] as the Golden Child."
Regarding Iowa, where Rubio was lauded for a strong third place finish, Sweet said it was a case of "bronze is the new gold."
Sweet was dismissive of the viability of John Kasich in the south, and likewise sees an opportunity to go toe to toe with Donald Trump.
"More and more voters are examining track records of the candidates in detail," Sweet said.
While Trump and Cruz share an "anti-establishment message with strong appeal," the "central question is who can change Washington" and who has a "track record of fighting for change with consistent conservative principles."
Sweet shares Jeb Bush's contention that Trump is vulnerable on issues like eminent domain, having "played the corrupt crony capitalist game to advance his business interests," giving to Democrats and Republicans alike... and giving more money to the Clinton Foundation than to veterans' groups historically.
Trump is also vulnerable on the abortion issue, where he is "pro choice in every respect, including late-term and partial-birth abortion" procedures.
And Trump's health care plan? "Obamacare on steroids," Sweet said.
On immigration, meanwhile, "Turnstile Trump" favors "touchback amnesty," allowing deportees back into the country after they are removed.
Judging from my conversation with Sweet, the Cruz strategy boils down to taking out Rubio, undermining Trump's newfound conservative stances, and a tactical detente with Bush, for now.
We'll see how that plays out. So far, though, Cruz has a gold and a bronze in two primaries, with the friendly territory of South Carolina and the SEC Primary ahead of him.
Sen. Cruz Files Additional Amendments to Immigration Legislation
Cruz 1324: Green Card (LPR) reform to modernize, streamline and expand legal immigration Provisions of his amendment include:
Doubling the overall worldwide green card caps from 675,000 visas per year to 1.35 million per year (not including refugees and asylees):
Employment-based green cards: Consolidates the 5 existing employment-based visas into a single high-skilled employment-based visa.
Family-based green cards: Creates a single family-based visa category that treats all immigrant families equally by redefining "immediate relatives" as "spouses, minor children, and parents of citizens or LPRs."
Treating immigrants from all countries equally by eliminating the diversity visa program and the per-country visa caps: Currently, immigrants of identical skill may experience drastically different wait times and burdens based merely on their country of origin. Not only is this inequitable, it hurts our ability to attract the best and brightest.
Reducing bureaucracy: Creates a user-friendly online portal where visa applicants can apply and obtain updates on their application.
Cruz 1325: Increase high-skilled temporary worker visas (H-1B visas) five-fold
This amendment would improve our nation’s legal immigration system by increasing the H-1B cap from 65,000 to 325,000. It would also help America retain the people it educates by authorizing dual-intent student visas and address the need for high-skilled labor by creating a block grant to promote domestic high-skilled workers.
Cruz 1326: Combines Cruz 1324 and Cruz 1325. Implements Green Card reform to streamline and expand legal immigration and increases high-skilled temporary worker visas five fold.
I’m near Orlando and there’s a TON of Cruz supporters here!
Cruz 1320: Create border security triggers that can be measured objectively by Congress and provide the resources and capabilities necessary to secure the border
Cruz 1321: Prohibit federal, state, or local entitlement benefits for those here illegally
Cruz 1322: Ensure that illegal immigrants who are given legal status under this bill are not given a path to citizenship
Cruz 1323: Combines Cruz 1322 and Cruz 1321. Provides that those who are granted legal status under the bill are ineligible for welfare and for citizenship
Cruz 1324: Green Card (LPR) reform to modernize, streamline and expand legal immigration
Cruz 1325: Increase high-skilled temporary worker visas (H-1B visas) five-fold
Cruz 1326: Combines Cruz 1324 and Cruz 1325. Implements Green Card reform to streamline and expand legal immigration and increases high-skilled temporary worker visas five fold.
"You say we are against all immigrants - okay here you go, we can improve and increase legal immigration. All you have to do in return is agree that the illegals cannot become citizens, and that the security measures (enforcement, border wall, increase border patrol) have to be in effect and proven to be effective before anything else happens."
They knew that they would never agree to the amendments, and they knew that the House would never agree to the bill without something like that in there once it had been proposed.
But you don't have to believe me or Cruz - both Lee and Sessions have publicly stated that Cruz was working with them hand in glove on killing that bill. So many Trump supporters praise Sessions on immigration issues - so you think he is going to lie about that to help Cruz?
Of course, now the accusation about being against ALL immigration is true, at least for the Trump supporters.
Great! Nice to know you neighbor! I myself, live in Jax! CRUZ 2016!!!
Thought Trump was ahead in both Florida and Texas?
Supposedly Trump is going to win Florida because he has a 2nd home there and Trump LOVES the state of Florida, he has for years, and he will win Texas because he has a lot of support in Texas since he announced he was running.
Cruz is once again mimicking Trump, spent less, yada yada. This guy can’t do anything on his own, steals every idea and oh yeah, votes.
________________________________________________________
Half of Trumps website are the 3rd grade versions of policies articulated when Trump was pro amnesty and pro abortion sonny.
Cruz only ran one ad in NH. He only spent 27 days in NH, less than any other candidate. NH was never going to be a win for him, they like NE liberals like Trump and Kasich. The numbers have been verified by outside sources... And yes, he spent less than Trump.
He may be ahead in Central/South FL but he is not in NE and NW FL. Lots of Cruz supporters here and that is why Gov. Scott beat Crist the last time around. But if Cruz doesnt win the nom, I will vote for the Don - (hesitantly). :)
Cruz is leading in Texas, and has the home field advantage - he already knows the electorate and has all his records and contacts from his Senate run. His ground game there will be unmatched. He will also have Perry out campaigning for him as well as lots of state and local representatives.
Sweet shares Jeb Bush's contention that Trump is vulnerable on issues like eminent domain, having "played the corrupt crony capitalist game to advance his business interests," giving to Democrats and Republicans alike... and giving more money to the Clinton Foundation than to veterans' groups historically. Trump is also vulnerable on the abortion issue, where he is "pro choice in every respect, including late-term and partial-birth abortion" procedures.And Trump's health care plan? "Obamacare on steroids," Sweet said.
On immigration, meanwhile, "Turnstile Trump" favors "touchback amnesty," allowing deportees back into the country after they are removed.
Louisiana early voting for the primaries is on the 20th of this month. That is 10 days away.
Texas early voting starts 2/16
This Floridian will be voting for Cruz.
Can you point me to anyone here on FR who actually “crowed” that Cruz would win New Hampshire. I remember declaring repeatedly that Cruz would clobber Trump in IOWA despite the last 13 polls at RCP all saying Trump would win Iowa. But even I knew New Hampshire was one of the most liberal states in the country.
I question your sanity.
I don’t see any sums of money in your post. How much does it cost to drive a bus from one town to another?
As do most reasonable people...probably an accounting trick of some kind.
Cruz will outperform the polls in Texas. And Texas has more delegates than any of the other early states.
That 757 and “YUUUUGE” crowds worked a treat in Iowa didn’t they?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.