Posted on 02/10/2016 10:23:20 AM PST by justlittleoleme
Cruz's win in the Iowa caucuses last week was, as it has been for every recent GOP Iowa winner, heavily reliant on evangelical Christians. He over-performed among this group, beating Trump 34-22 among them.
Two points here. The first is that, yes, Iowa is a very evangelical state, and not every state -- read: New Hampshire -- has the same makeup. In fact, New Hampshire is the least religious state in the country, according to Gallup, and PRRI reports only about 1 in 10 residents is an evangelical.
In this regard, though, the next few weeks of the GOP race look a whole lot more like Iowa than New Hampshire. And that is fantastic for Cruz.
-snip-
It may not shock you to see the most heavily-white-evangelical states clustered in the South. Many of them are significantly more evangelical than Iowa, where 64 percent of the GOP electorate last week was evangelical.
And here is the second point: The most evangelical states are pretty heavily front-loaded in this process -- thanks in large part to the "SEC Primary" on March 1.
South Carolina on Feb. 20 and a whopping six of the 11 states holding contests on Super Tuesday/"SEC Primary" Day on the first of March have more evangelicals than Iowa does.
And here's where it gets even better for Cruz: Heavily Christian Kansas and Louisiana and heavily evangelical Kentucky vote just four days later on March 5, followed by heavily evangelical Mississippi on March 8 and heavily evangelical Missouri and North Carolina on March 15. In fact, if you exclude Maryland and West Virginia from the definition of "Southern," the Southern states will all have voted five weeks from now.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Very good analysis. Pretty much what I have been saying.
I attacked Cruz badly yesterday. I regret that, but it was frustration at misrepresentations of Trump. I can’t believe I let posters get to me, but they did.
I think I’ll ask for them all to be deleted. He is now and will be throughout my 2nd choice. I hurt myself by attacking him.
As always he needs to be at least 2nd.
I may go to church 2-3 times a month, but it isn’t Cruz’s “evangelicism” that makes me like him. Matter of fact, it makes me a little uncomfortable when he brings “God” into a political conversation too much. It’s his constitutialism and limited Government stance that makes him support him.
Now Trump is NOT about limited Government. How can you be a “conservative” and support a big government guy like Trump?
Lie.
I won’t as my wife would get very PO’ed:-)
Not too difficult for that to happen.
Ofttimes there is way too much heat here.
I’ve been there too many times myself.
No Republican candidate, including Trump, can win without a decent turnout from socially conservative voters. Those are the Cruz supporters. Cruz is conservative across the board. If Trump gets the nomination he must pick a very conservative running mate (like Cruz) AND stick to a conservative message (not shift left like many candidates do in the general).
Even in the lowest percentage state, who wouldn’t want 4% more votes? So many races are lost with less than that.
Kasich will do well in Ohio, but I don’t think he carries over to Michigan. Definitely not Indiana, Pennsylvania, or Kentucky.
But CNN and Huffington Post are now the trusted news sources of Trump supporters.
McConnell hated Bevin. Now he's governor.
“No Republican candidate, including Trump, can win without a decent turnout from socially conservative voters”
Same old socon song and dance.
Yes. You can beat any Republican by withholding your votes. Good.
But you also can’t elect anybody by yourselves. And your open support for a candidate has become poison.
So. Where does that leave you? The suicide bombers of the right.
I guess you didn’t see that it was Trump not Cruz who won the Christian vote. Evangelicals don’t like baring false witness like Cruz used against Nice Doc Carson.
Also, voter intimidation and mind games of the now under investigation intimidation summons mailings.
Cruz vote didn’t show any bump from Iowa his polls and performance is flat. No momentum
Tied for 3rd with Jeb and Marco.
Florida is a closed primary and winner takes all. That will be huge. Who is expected to win there?
Dreamin’
I can’t imagine West aligning himself with Trump.
Yes how did that work for president Romney and McCain?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.