Cruz will outperform NH, but he’s not going to double his poll numbers in 10 days, and Trump isn’t Mark Rubio, he’s not going to shoot himself in the head and lose 17 or 18 points in 10 days.
If anything Trump is likely to gain a few points in his polling numbers in SC from his victory in NH, he sure isn’t likely to lose 18 or 19 points in 10 days.
Cruz will do better in SC than he did in NH, but doubling his numbers in 10 days, while at the same time halfing Trumps? Not with ads with kids playing with dolls.. that’s for sure.
You don’t know the voters in NC/SC like I do.
I’m telling you it’s very possible for Cruz to beat Trump in SC by 5-7% points.
Trump isn’t 1) A social Conservative/Evangelical Christian, that works against him
2) He’s not polite, and while that might carry him in some places with many voters, not in the South. I know many NC Republicans of different types and they don’t take to “crudity” and impolite demagoguery.
3) He’s not that conservative, and Cruz is and has a record
4) Though Democrats and Independents in theory ~could~ vote in the Republican Primary in SC, they’d have to have registered already as such as the deadline is Jan 20th.
5) I believe absentee balloting has already started which would favor candidates with the strongest ground game the most..that is reportedly Cruz.
4) The political dynamic with all the candidates still in I believe favors Cruz.
Disprove this if you want, I’d love to hear your arguments if you have any facts.