You don’t know the voters in NC/SC like I do.
I’m telling you it’s very possible for Cruz to beat Trump in SC by 5-7% points.
Trump isn’t 1) A social Conservative/Evangelical Christian, that works against him
2) He’s not polite, and while that might carry him in some places with many voters, not in the South. I know many NC Republicans of different types and they don’t take to “crudity” and impolite demagoguery.
3) He’s not that conservative, and Cruz is and has a record
4) Though Democrats and Independents in theory ~could~ vote in the Republican Primary in SC, they’d have to have registered already as such as the deadline is Jan 20th.
5) I believe absentee balloting has already started which would favor candidates with the strongest ground game the most..that is reportedly Cruz.
4) The political dynamic with all the candidates still in I believe favors Cruz.
Disprove this if you want, I’d love to hear your arguments if you have any facts.
My friend I grew up in North Carolina, most of my family still lives in North Carolina, my very first political event was a Jessie Helms rally in the town I lived in grade school, I am there quite frequently and I am telling you you are deluding yourself if you think in 9 days Cruz is going to double his poll numbers and Trumps are going to fall in half or more.
None of what you have put forth is anything new, do you think voters who are supporting Trump don’t know Trump? Trump is more known than anyone in the running, he’s been broadcast weekly into their homes for over a decade etc etc etc. Do you think any of what you have put forth isn’t something the majority of folks in SC supporting Trump don’t already know??? He isn’t some no name congressman that no one knows, you aren’t going to see him fall because folks have projected on him traits because they don’t know him.. This is part of why the many attempts by the press to Gotcha Trump have failed.
The arguments you are making don’t hold water, Cruz won’t get anywhere near Trumps poll numbers let along beat him by 7 or more points.
You are arguing on emotion not logic. Cruz has zero chance of suddenly doubling his polling, let along believe he’s going to do it at the expense of Trump.
Cruz will do better in SC than he did in NH, no doubt about it. But if you thing Cruz is going to double his numbers in 9 days while at the same time Trumps collapse you don’t know SC voters nearly as well as you think you do.
Time will tell, in 9 days we can revisit this thread and see who has to eat crow.