Posted on 02/09/2016 12:53:16 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
They might not make national headlines, but local endorsements in presidential primaries matter. According to the influential book "The Party Decides," such endorsements reveal party elites trying to come to a decision about which candidate they should mutually support. They are leading indicators of vote - and delegate - outcomes. In many ways, they are better at predicting how the race will turn out than opinion polls.
As we'll explain below, in New Hampshire, Ted Cruz has built up a commanding lead of these endorsements - especially compared with Marco Rubio and Donald Trump, which indicates a reservoir of strength that current polling might be missing.
This echoes our post from a week ago (before the caucus), in which we argued that Ted Cruz's underappreciated strength in Iowa endorsements - he led the field with more than a quarter of the sitting legislators' endorsements - could help him outperform the polling average. And indeed, he did.
On the other hand, there are many endorsements for candidates like Carly Fiorina and Chris Christie. The message is that of a Republican party in New Hampshire deeply divided between a more moderate wing supporting Fiorina and Christie, and a more libertarian wing that now is owned by Cruz (and was for Paul, when he was running).
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Why don’t you drop out now???
“...without stealing votes from other candidates”
A truly inane statement....but thanks for the chuckle nonetheless.
LOL!
I thought Rubio said he was going to win? He needs to top that.
LOL!
NICE!
Rubio said 3-2-1 or 2nd in NH and first in S.C.
The Establishment pundits (read whores) this morning were saying Trump must win by 10-12% or he loses.
New concept......”loss-by-landslide “
Of course he is.
I meant that I hope the endorsements there translate into votes for TC in NH.
Because the guy who was convinced that Scott Walker was the only one who could win wants us now to believe he has always been for Trump and Trump is now the only one who can win.
Re:” he went from 1st down to 2nd? Not good.”
What?
When was Cruz EVER in 1st in New Hampshire?
Trump has been up nearly 30 points there for a long time.
If Trump doesn’t win by 20 that should give his campaign pause. Super Tuesday is around the corner.
And we don’t have New York values.
It is the expectations game. Politics are about perception as much or more than about reality. And Trump may be a victim of his own bragging. He has been talking about all the poll having him up 20+ points, etc., so the expectation is that he will win by YUUUGE margins. So if he wins but wins by less than 10 points, for example, then the perception is that he lost a lot of support in a short period of time, and that will be the story heading into SC.
That is one of the reasons Rubio got such a bounce out of Iowa - no one was predicting him to do so well. And Cruz could be set to get a bounce out of NH - no one expects him to do well, so if he manages to come in 2nd or 3rd, he could use that as an indicator of momentum.
S.C. is all that matters for Cruz. A top-3 finish in NH would help boost his momentum for that contest, but it is not required. My friends tell me Cruz has a remarkable ground force in the Palmetto State, and I sincerely doubt Trump does.
Hope this is true, but I do think it’s Trumps night tonight. Hopefully Ted can topple Trump in SC.
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