Polling wise Trump was supposed to win big in Iowa. That is why a 4 point Cruz win was considered a big deal. Anything other than a big win in NH will be a loss for Trump. It’s about the story not reality. We’re talking the media here after all.
If you take out cheating, trump won and every voter knows it now.
Trump was never up big in Iowa, 4 or 5% tops.
In fact, they were doubtful he’d win saying had to have big turnout.
You couldn’t be more wrong, because you fail to understand the difference between a caucus and a regular primary.
Especially in wintery Iowa, by the time you leave house and return could easily exceed 3 hours. Many places we saw on TV news, there were no chairs to sit. Wait in lines to get inside. Then listen to boring propaganda from supporters of other candidates. Finally get to vote and fight the snow storm driving home. Only the most dedicated evangelists endure this punishment. Most Iowa caucuses attract less than 6% of eligible voters.
The turn out in NH will be FOUR TIMES bigger in percentage of population terms. Results will be Much closer to poll predictions.