DEAREST Jane Long!!!!
I often wonder about the very same!
Have NO WAY of knowing ... *sigh* ...
Posted on 02/04/2016 10:23:44 AM PST by LS
On the night of the Iowa caucus events, I was getting pinged from all sides about what was happening. Unfortunately, some of us still work for a living (joke). I was on the road for an assignment and did not have access to a reliable computer or wireless. I was not "hiding" form critics, and I wasn't ignoring those of a like mind.
Finally I can address what has happened, and I don't think anyone will be happy.
The obvious:
*The polls were horribly wrong. Only the Emerson Poll got it right, but I think that was a total accident. The "gold standard" Des Moines Register is discredited; Nate Silver (thank God) is discredited. So, for myself, until proven otherwise through SEVERAL accurate polls, I'm paying no heed to these. That means we don't know if Trump is ahead in NH or nationally. Likewise, Cruzers, it blows out of the water the notion that "Cruz does better than Trump against Hillary." We don't know now, good or bad.
*While initially Trump had a classy statement of congratulations to Cruz, then he accepted full blame for not "taking Iowa seriously enough," he quickly fell into the "Cruz cheated" mantra.
Politics is vicious and I have no problem with any tricks you can get away with. Period. Moreover, it's over. You absolutely cannot fight the last battle. Every second that Trump spends on this is not only wasted time, but shows he isn't properly focused on NH and beyond. (I'll discuss the "Carson tweet/voter shaming in a minute, but not as some of my fellow Trumpers think).
Whatever happened with Carson/Cruz, the biggest takeaway of this caucus and the biggest negative for Trump is that his strength---his business acumen and organization---took a severe hit. I understand Iowa's unique religious and grass-roots character. But for someone whose reputation is based on organizing, cutting costs and getting things done, it doesn't look good. The story today from the always questionable National Journal that he still has not taken the advice of his campaign team to expand his ground operation in NH is distressing. Trump has been claiming this entire campaign (with experience to support it) that he will "put the right people" in the right positions. Iowa is an inauspicious start. Word is that Cruz has built a powerful similar grassroots network in Tennessee---another Bible Belt state where he'll do well. How The Donald responds to this challenge to his business acumen, not his political instincts, will be critical.
*Carsongate. As I said before, this is politics. I don't know who did what, and as Rush said, we can't prove that any number of voters had their votes changed. The notion that "just four votes per precinct" would give Trump the win is undeniable and just like saying that just one more touchdown a quarter would have given the Patriots the victory over the Broncos. But Cruzers, don't think this doesn't hurt Cruz and his image. He has built an image early on, well, being "St. Ted." He is the "pure" candidate, the one with God on his side. These kinds of shenanigans, combined with the "voter shaming" letter, are minor things ... but they do add up. Cruz can afford one or two of these, but if it ever gets the point that he is viewed as a hypocrite---as opposed to just "a conservative" (or even a "radical right winger"), that charge will have legs.
*The biggest winner---and yet, from another perspective, biggest loser---is Rubio. THE GOPe'S GOAL IS TO BAIT AND SWITCH RUBIO FOR CRUZ AFTER STOPPING TRUMP. Now, Cruzers, I do not think Ted intends that to happen (nor does Trump), and it's not a "conspiracy" between the two men. This is totally "strategerized" by the GOPe, knowing that one on one, Rubio cannot beat either Cruz or Trump. (I would say that to date, Trump's biggest mistake was not in skipping the Iowa debate, but in July and August, when he had Rubio in the grave, not burying him then).
But how is Rubio a loser? He exceeded expectations in Iowa and seems to have (ugh) "momentum." Except ... of ALL the candidates, Rubio not only had money and had the most campaign experience at this level, but had the entire GOPe, National Review, ALL the bloggers and the entire GOP establishment shilling for him (even attacking Jeb for wanting to stay in the race). If Rubio, with all those advantages, couldn't win, that does not speak well for his future chances. Trump may have lacked a "ground game" in Iowa, but Rubio had no excuse.
In short, we are right where the Cruzers hoped we would be: and IA win preventing a Trump landslide. But we're also where the GOPe hoped we'd be, because remember, now matter how unlikely you think it to be, THEY think they will take Cruz out easily---more easily than Trump. Even if Trump wins NH, now, nothing will be proved until a real one-on-one Trump/Cruz match occurs in the neutral battlefield of South Carolina.
Trump is only one running for the Republican ticket who’s for single payer universal healthcare.
Trump is only one running for the Republican ticket who’s for single payer universal healthcare.
Keep posting that PACpaid meme....it won’t make it true and only exposes the sheer desperation of the Cheap Labor cabal.
What we would get with Trump is a megalomaniac who tweets like a 14 year old girl and would push single payer universal healthcare. That’s what we know we’d get. We have no idea what else we’d get.
I don’t want to hear anything else about amnesty until Trumpbots explain how single payer universal healthcare is conservative.
So it doesn’t matter to you that Trump says it himself? Of course it doesn’t. You don’t have to do this. Even if you’re getting paid by Trump, you can get another job. You’re embarrassing yourself.
Totally agree with you, I’m a Cruz girl myself.
We know who the paid ones are, around here....and the ones who have embarrassed themselves, as well.
BTW, have you made your donation to FR, this month? It’s a new month, and FR is always looking for monthly donors...or one time donations are great, too!
https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/
;-)
Don’t know either one... have to wait for the scoops.
I absolutely agree. I didn’t mean to say that “Trump lost Iowa.” No, Cruz won it. I was only pointing out that Trump cannot make Iowa mistakes in NH or anywhere else.
I couldn’t give two flips what a candidate’s relative says about them. A vote for Ronald Reagan isn’t a vote for Ron Reagan Jr.
Outstanding article
So, Must Win for Trump.
Must 2nd for Rubio, he must finish ahead of Kasich,Bush and Christie.
Since Kacish, Bush and Christi are ‘all in’ in NH, I believe Cruz survives a forth or even a close fifth place finish. .
New Hampshire is quirkey. Look at Green Papers, there are 30 candidates on the ballot. http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NH-R
I am thinking Trump 30ish
Rubio 18 high teens
Kacich 14
Cruz 12
Bush 10
Cristie 10
Yes, I think if Trump majorly underperforms in NH he’s in trouble.
if Cruz isn’t in top 3, he’s in trouble.
Rubio comes in behind any of the other establishment candidates, he’s in trouble.
Cruz will probably do better in strong red states, so a bad performance in NH doesn’t kill him, but it doesn’t help. He comes in a low number in NH, and then misses the top 3 in SC... I think its going to be hard for him to come back.
If Trump doesn’t score a solid undeniable win, not a squeaker, but a strong strong win by SC at the latest, Super Tuesday gets a log more interesting as well.
If it is a close 4th, don’t think too much trouble. I’m going to S. Carolina to join Cruz’s ground game next week. I will let you know.
Exactly: Just as in The Emperor's New Clothes, what you say is so obvious that most folks apparently will divert their attention and refuse to notice.
Anyway, the facts as you outline them are precisely why I think all this "self-funding" talk is a crock of record-breaking dimensions.
Still, let's not bother trying to persuade the dedicated Trumpsters. It's a waste of time and bandwidth, because they are basically impervious to both facts and logic.
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