Posted on 02/04/2016 8:56:07 AM PST by SeekAndFind
The big winner in Iowa’s Republican caucuses on Monday night might not have been Ted Cruz. It may have been a nominating process that fails to yield a clear winner. A clear winner being a candidate who goes to Cleveland this summer with the presidential nomination in hand.
At the end of Monday night, which count really mattered? Delegates acquired. As of this writing, Cruz has bagged eight delegates, Trump and Rubio, seven each, with four other delegates going to also-rans.
Raw vote totals are what most folk tend to watch and weigh. But in 2016, it pays to more closely follow the candidates’ delegate totals. Thanks to the Republican National Committee (RNC), caucuses and primaries held prior to mid-March mandate proportional distribution of delegates based on candidates’ vote totals in given contests. Most early caucuses and primaries impose threshold minimums to win delegates (say, Alabama, with a 20% threshold).
Prior to Mid-March, 25 States, along with DC, Guam, and Puerto Rico, will hold proportional contests. That accounts for 1,022 bound delegates (“bound” being delegates committed to a candidate for the first vote). 45% of the bound delegates will be picked proportionally or in “hybrid” formats, which include triggering provisions for larger delegate yields for candidates who meet higher vote percentage thresholds. There are WTA (winner-take-all) thresholds, but those will be quite difficult to achieve.
Starting with Super Tuesday, March 15, most of the remaining states have opted to hold winner-take-all contests, though a handful will continue to make proportional distributions. From mid-March forward, 1,238 bound delegates will be chosen (Colorado’s delegates declare at convention).
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Thank you Donald Trump
/s
(Disgusted sarcasm at that)
This stuff has been discussed about every four years for a long time.......
A deadlocked convention is what the GOPe mouthpieces at Salem Radio have been hoping for now that Jeb! appears to be cooked. Although they still are holding out hope for Rubio.
We know how THAT ends.
The beltway elites cram Yeb down our throats, and most of us stay home. Her Thighness is coronated and the Dems complete the fundamental transformation of the country.
What’s the gist of all this non informative excerpt?
Why should I go read the whole thing?
Cruz runs the table. Picks Kasich as V.P.
RE: What’s the gist of all this non informative excerpt?
The number of delegates needed to secure the GOP nomination is 1,237. There are a number of unbound (3 per state) and unpledged delegates. The unpledged delegates are mostly establishment picks who would factor in at a deadlocked convention.
Short of a breakout by one the major contenders (Trump, Cruz, and Rubio), it’s not hard to imagine a scenario where the proportional phase of the nominating process yields tightly packed delegate counts among the three. Complicating matters is if new life is breathed into the Carson, Kasich, or Christe campaigns (as improbable as that appears).
But, say you, won’t the nomination fight be resolved with Super Tuesday and the subsequent contests?
That could happen, but consider this prospect. Cruz, Rubio, and Trump take roughly a third each of the delegates in the proportional phase. For illustration, say, 340 delegates per man. That means in the winner-take-all phase, one of the principals would need to capture 897 of the available 1,238 bound delegates to win. That’s about 73% of the total or three out of every four delegates. Possible, but how likely? This assumes, too, that the principals are competitive with one another, affording each the chance to pick off states.
If no candidate is able to secure enough delegates, that means that we would end up with a ‘brokered convention’. The mechanics of a brokered convention can get quite complicated, but on a practical level what that would essentially mean is that the party establishment would get to hand select the nominee. And in case you are wondering, that would not be Donald Trump or Ted Cruz.
Like I say, nothing good ever comes out of Cleveland.
Okay, maybe Lincoln Arc Welders.
You hypothesize about the potentials of a three way race (Cruz, Trump and for some reason, Rubio).
My point is effing Rubio from the gitgo is an amnesty snake and we should let our two remaining candidates duke it out. We do not need a so-called conservative wannabe Ross Perot in the mix. There is no person on this God’s green earth that can convince me this snake has anything substantive to add to the life of my grand daughters... NOT ONE.
I think that the powers that be in the Republican Party will do almost anything to deny Trump and/or Cruz the nomination.
Not a single elected official has endorsed Trump. Republican insiders constantly tell the MSM how unpopular and unacceptable Cruz is to the Party establishment.
The plan is to have a brokered convention. Jeb or Rubio will be the most likely nominee. Kasich will be a likely choice for VP.
Insert CW2 somewhere in that chain of events.
Ditto! Kasich the competent governor who can deliver Ohio. I’m all for it!
Wow! It might be something other than a boring infomercial / coronation.
btt
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.