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Posted on 02/04/2016 7:05:26 AM PST by Kaslin
Hillary Clinton's asterisk-heavy victory in Iowa might have been the narrowest of wins for her, but it was arguably the worst of all possible outcomes for the Democratic Party.
As of this writing, the result was a statistical tie, 49.9 percent for Clinton and 49.6 percent for Bernie Sanders. The margin of victory in the delegate count was decided by six coin tosses that "flip truthers" will forever remember as mysteriously biased toward Clinton.
Clinton raced to the podium to declare victory, but the news media will continue to describe it as a tie, probably forever. Sanders' supporters won't even make that concession, bitterly complaining about irregularities and, again, coins that seemed to be in Clinton's pocket, figuratively speaking.
A crushing defeat would have been worse for Clinton, of course. But this wasn't much better. In fact, the nature of this victory will probably bring out the worst in Clinton. If she lost decisively, as she did in Iowa in 2008, she'd have the option of playing the victim. Maybe she'd even cry again, like she did in Portsmouth, N.H., in '08, earning the sympathy vote. Instead, she won Iowa this time. But saying so requires lawyerly qualifications and caveats.
Everyone knows this "win" was nothing to brag about. According to The New York Times, her "advisers said they did not know if a significant staff shakeup was at hand, but they said that the Clintons were disappointed with Monday night's result and wanted to ensure that her organization, political messaging and communications strategy were in better shape for the contests to come." That's not exactly William Wallace in "Braveheart" shouting of victory.
Clinton simply can't go around talking about her "win" in Iowa without seeming ungracious and grasping. Every time she tries, it will, by the very nature of that victory, seem like spin. Already, her supporters are fanning out across cable news overselling the win and reinforcing the sense that Team Clinton is disconnected from reality. Also, any bragging from the Clinton camp will further antagonize Sanders' supporters, many of whom are already quite hostile to Clinton.
But the real loser in all this is the Democratic Party.
The ghost of Eugene McCarthy has hovered over the Democratic race for a year. In 1968, the left-wing senator from Minnesota challenged President Johnson in the New Hampshire primary. McCarthy actually lost by a significant margin. But the mere fact that he got 42 percent of the vote against the sitting president was enough to ultimately knock Johnson out of the race and entice Robert F. Kennedy into it.
These are different times, and Clinton isn't an incumbent president. Even so, numerous observers raised the possibility that if Clinton suffered a devastating loss in both Iowa and New Hampshire, it might be enough to entice Vice President Biden, Al Gore, Michael Bloomberg or someone else into the race to save the party from the prospect of a socialist nominee or a fatally flawed Clinton candidacy.
There was never any question in my mind that Clinton will never drop out. Like Richard Gere in "An Officer and a Gentleman," she's got nowhere else to go. But there was some slim possibility that someone else would get in and beat her and Sanders. That won't happen now. She will almost surely go on to lose in New Hampshire. After that, her best hope is to grind out a victory over many months, antagonizing Sanders' supporters, who are disproportionately made up of exactly the kind of young activists Clinton desperately needs to win in November.
The window for a Democratic savior -- if one ever existed -- slammed shut Monday night. The Democrats are stuck with what they've got.
Did Cankles bring her two-headed quarter?
Interesting seeing the different treatment of Hillary possible shenanigans and Cruz possible shenanigans.
In the first it casts doubt on the outcome. In the latter it means Carson and Trump are bad sports.
They are stuck until she gets indicted, then Joe will come swooping in for the rescue...
Bernie has no appeal in the south and the more rural states out west, but what worries the Dems is how he will do in battleground states like Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania where pissed off blue collar workers might gravitate to Sanders. Any way you slice it her candidacy is in deep trouble, and I’m sure backup options are already in place for the next Democratic candidate because you can make a pretty good bet that neither Hillary nor Bernie will get the nomination in the summer.
And the trip still took her 40 minutes!
the nature of this victory will probably bring out the worst in Clinton.
Sorry but is there a 'best' in Clinton? Is there even a 'not worst?'
They can help her campaign by making sure she has an open bar that Sinatra would have envied. Her alcoholism will finish her campaign and she will probably have another stroke.
They talk of Biden or someone else possibly getting in. But filing deadlines have passed. They’d have to bresk many rules to add a new candidate. [Shrug] I guess that’s no big deal.
So, Socialist Sanders is complaining about the dem fix machinery?
When I was a kid, I saw a Jefferson nickel for sale at a coin store that had Jefferson’s head on both sides.
It was a mint error coin.
Hillary must have a bunch of those coins!
Schadenfun!!!
I continue to describe it as a lie.
“Bernie has no appeal in the south”
I come from Alabama, and all my liberal friends from high school are constantly posting pro-Bernie stuff on FB.
I’ve come to the conclusion that democrat voters prefer ANY OTHER LIBERAL over HRC. She is not likeable, and is actually a pretty lousy politician. This is why they voted for Barry in droves.
I don’t know how this will play out, but the absurdity of the repeated failed attempts at a coronation is fascinating to me. Why would a rat voter put up with it?
When Bobby Kennedy was assassinated by a muslim the night of the California primary in June, 1968, the dems put Hubert Humphrey on the ballot.
I don’t know what the rules were back then, but those were extraordinary circumstances.
I may register just to vote for Bernie. I don’t think a socialist can win the general but he could win the Dem nomination.
The unwritten story, or should I say the unreported story the Democrat media won’t comment on is the populist uprising in their own party. They can talk all they want of the Donald/Ted food fight, but they don’t want the world to know the bitter fight between Bernie and Hillary, and the widespread bitterness in the lefty ranks towards the former Secretary of State.
The Democrats have a major problem if they want someone else to jump in the race. The filing deadline has already been passed for:
Alabama
Arkansas
Illinois
Kentucky
Maryland
Mississippi
New Mexico
North Carolina
Ohio
Texas
West Virginia
In the next 12 days they will miss:
Indiana
Pennsylvania
This means that someone who enters now is already going to miss any chance at 962 delegates and if they wait 12 days, they will be up to missing 1,234 delegates.
There is only 4,340 delegates up for grabs, so someone jumping in now will only have a shot at 3,378 and the number goes down to 3,106 in less than two weeks. They would need to win in excess of 65% of all delegates, in proportional races no-less, in order to win the nomination at this point.
Sorry Democrats, you are stuck with either Clinton or Sanders.
Yes filing deadlines have passed.
I think what people are talking about is that delegates at the convention would vote for someone who hasn’t been Running in the primaries. There is a big bloc of so called super delegates at the convention who are not pledged to any candidate. Its possible that the super delegates could deny Hillary the nomination on the 1st ballot. After the 1st ballot at a convention, pledged delegates are no longer bound to that candidate. That’s when back room deals can happen.
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