I’m a Cruz supporter and I’ve spent a lot of time in New Hampshire. Don’t think he finishes higher than third; Trump still has a big lead, plus Rubio and even someone like Kasich could finish in the Top three. Ted isn’t the only candidate with a ground game in the Granite State.
South Carolina is setting up as the next real showdown. Far more evangelicals in that part of the country, and Cruz has more time to cut into Trump’s lead. Meanwhile, the GOP-E is trying to pump up Rubio with Tim Scott’s endorsement and he’ll get more of those in the weeks ahead.
One group that is very important in South Carolina is the active duty military and retired military population. Those groups can be a deciding factor in the low country around Charleston (home of NWS Goose Creek, Charleston AFB, Parris Island and Beaufort MCAS) and the Midlands, which has Fort Jackson, Shaw AFB and McEntire ANGB. There are almost 60,000 active duty personnel in South Carolina (and many registered to vote there), while one in five residents of the state identify themselves as veterans.
In 2012, 126,000 “veterans” (including active duty) voted in the SC GOP primary. Newt Gingrich received 39% of their votes and it put him over the top; the Palmetto State was one of only two primary victories for the former Speaker of the House.
It will be interesting to see how the military vote in South Carolina breaks this time.