Rubio now the clear favorite according to prediction markets

February 2, 2016

[reaganaut1]

According to PredictWise, which aggregates the results of betting markets, the candididates' chances of winning the nomination are now 54% Rubio, 26% Trump, 13% Cruz, 4% Bush. A day ago, before the Iowa cacuses, the chances were 51% Trump, 33% Rubio, 10% Cruz. So the biggest winner in Iowa was Rubio.

I think Rubio is the most electable candidate, because Cruz (who I like) is too conservative for the country. If Rubio is elected president, I hope the congressional GOP can stop a bad immigration bill, as it did under George W. Bush.

[1Old Pro]

Cruz is the “safe” candidate, just like McCain and Romney.

If you want Bold colors, it’s Trump or Cruz.

[Pollster1]

54% Rubio, 26% Trump, 13% Cruz, 4% Bush. A day ago, before the Iowa cacuses, the chances were 51% Trump, 33% Rubio, 10% Cruz

Cruz won in Iowa, so his chances of winning the nomination are up 3%. Trump came in second, so his chances are down 25%. Rubio came in third, so his chances are up 21%. It almost makes me wish either Trump or Cruz had come in third, since that is the place to be.

[jjsheridan5]

These prediction markets, which are generally fairly accurate, have spotted the obvious: Rubio (and, by implication, the Republican establishment) was the big winner last night. Iowa did what Iowa usually does, at least politically — it made a very poor political decision. Just as 2014 was a victory for the establishment, which conservatives mistakenly celebrated, last night was a victory for the establishment, and short-sighted conservatives celebrate their own self-inflicted wound.

[traderrob6]

I disagree. Iowa voted their conscience and chose the one bonafide conservative in the race.

If that carries with it unintended consequences, so be it.

They did the right thing.

[ohioman]

If the amnesty and establishment-loving Rubio is nominated, then I am staying home on election day.

[AuntB]

The market is betting on the status quo!

The real Rubio...a K St. Trojan Horse.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3391812/posts

[AuntB]

You like Amnesty, TPP ..... more muslim imports??

If not you don’t know Rubio!

The real Rubio...a K St. Trojan Horse.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3391812/posts

[AuntB]

“He’s a huge Middle East hawk in the McCain mold; called repeatedly for intervention in Syria.”

It’s worse than that. Rubio helped the Libyans destroy that country when he and McCain and Graham went over there and sided with the terrorists! Wish I could post photos! (yeah, one day I might bother to learn again)

[jjsheridan5]

... and chose the one bonafide conservative in the race.

There are plenty of bonafide conservatives who would disagree with that contention. I believe that Cruz' detractors are wrong, and Cruz does qualify as the other conservative in this race, but certainly not as the only one.

If that carries with it unintended consequences, so be it ... They did the right thing.

When "unintended consequences" are clearly visible in advance, they aren't really unintended consequences anymore. Predictable "unintended consequences" are a contradiction in terms. What you are really referring to are "avoidable mistakes". In which case, Iowa did not do "the right thing".

[traderrob6]

And who would be the other bonafide conservative(s) pray tell?

[jjsheridan5]

And who would be the other bonafide conservative(s) pray tell?

You know perfectly well. But I won't be baited. Just remember that there were conservatives who were very disappointed, as opposed to celebrating, in 2014, and their fears proved to be well-founded. Similarly, last night was just as concerning (perhaps moreso, simply because of the lost opportunity to deal a devastating blow to the entire DC establishment). I hope we don't prove to be as prophetic this time around, and I hope that your "side" has actually gotten one right this time.

But I doubt it.

[traderrob6]

“You know perfectly well.”

Actually, I don’t. There’s not a person running who even comes close to Cruz when it comes to conservativitism in both words AND actions.

Rand Paul would probably be the closest but he’s at 4.5%.

[Sooth2222]

"According to PredictWise, which aggregates the results of betting markets, the candididates' chances of winning the nomination are now 54% Rubio, 26% Trump, 13% Cruz, 4% Bush. A day ago, before the Iowa cacuses, the chances were 51% Trump, 33% Rubio, 10% Cruz. So the biggest winner in Iowa was Rubio."

Says more about "PredictWise" if they could make a wild jump like that on the basis of just the Iowa Caucuses.

(I have no idea who the nominee of either party is going to be -- or of who is going to be inaugurated in January 2017, or who is going to be incarcerated in January 2017.)

[Georgia Girl 2]

And after NH and SC it will swing back to Trump. :-)

[LS]

Cruzers should see the jubilation among the GOPe bloggers on Twitter. They are convinced Cruz just paved the way for Rubio.

[CPT Clay]

Just as you predicted. There should be a truce between Trump and Cruz until all GOPe are defeated. (FL)?

[CrimsonTidegirl]

“All these freepers who mourn the fact that Cruz is “too conservative”, lol. It’s no wonder the GOP gets stuck with cowards all the time. The democrats have no issues at all running a socialist and a criminal, and here we have people scared to support an intelligent, Hispanic, constitutional lawyer because he is “too conservative”. Absolutely pathetic. It’s the left that should be scared that their candidates are too extreme, not us. The media sure has done a number on y’all. This must’ve been what it was like to have been alive in ‘75 & ‘79 when Reagan was sitting up trouble. “Let’s stick with Ford! Reagan will never get elected!” “Bush is the safe choice!” “We shouldn’t be too conservative!”

God, sometimes I think this nation deserves Hillary. How far us Americans have fallen from our ancestors.”

Thank you for your post. That desperately needed to be said. The number of people who are fooled by Rubio is terrifying.

I do not understand why so many people like Rubio. He supports amnesty and wants to go to war with Russia in Syria. Complete insanity.

I also don’t understand why people refer to Rubio’s so-called “charm”. IMO, he’s not charming but creepy. His entire persona just screams “liar”. I just don’t understand the attraction.

Also, Hillary would DEMOLISH him in a debate. Absolutely destroy him. He is much too weak to fight against her, or even Bernie.

Depressing. This nation is in big trouble.