Posted on 02/01/2016 5:17:25 AM PST by expat_panama
Economic growth decelerated sharply in the second half of 2015 due to the usual suspects: global headwinds, destockpiling and a slumping energy sector.
Gross domestic product expanded at a glacial 0.7% annual rate in the fourth quarter, down from gains of 2% in Q3 and 3.9% in Q2, the Commerce Department said Friday. But a recession is highly unlikely, according to most economists, saying consumers will keep the economy plodding along at the so-so pace the country has seen since the Great Recession ended in 2009. Despite some big swings over the past several quarter, GDP grew 2.4% for all of 2015, the same gain as in 2014.
In Q4, nonresidential fixed investment fell 1.8%, its first decline since Q3 2012. The energy sector continues to slash capital spending due to falling oil prices, and other businesses aren't picking up the slack. Inventories subtracted...
[snip]
Exports slumped, as a strong dollar and weaker overseas economic sap demand for U.S. goods. Several regional manufacturing reports have signaled contraction, including those from the New York, Dallas, Kansas City and Philadelphia Federal Reserve districts. But a Chicago purchasers' index released Friday rebounded to a growth reading.
"Putting it all together, growth was disappointing, but we clearly shouldn't fear a recession is imminent, or even in the cards," wrote Joel Naroff, of Naroff Economic Advisors, in a client note.
[snip]
The odds of the Fed raising rates in March are "zero,"Â Blitz said, adding the Q4 GDP report "really tees up"Â the Labor Department's January job report on Feb. 5.
[snip]
"Standard monetary policy strategy says a little less inflation, maybe a little less growth -- argue for just a smidgen slower process of normalizing rates,"Â Williams said.
(Excerpt) Read more at investors.com ...
It's not all bad and it's no all good. Sure, life in a comic book would be easier w/ clearly labeled good-guys and bad but real life is mixed. It means we got serious mistakes in government and at the same time a hard-working powerful American people. Reality: what we know right now is that we're not in a recession. Yeah, the econ's slowing but slower growth is still well, growth.
The word "contraction" means "get smaller". The econ's not contracting.
Yet.
And what is that which consumers have to spend? I, for one, am almost completely tapped out, and the only hope I have is to have my heirs collect on the various insurance policies I had the foresight to enroll in years ago.
Unless all those assets get seized too.
Happy Monday morning all! So last week ended the contraction in stock prices but where are we going now? These futures traders say up and these others say down. Humph. Donno 'bout y'all but I'm setting up for 'measured steps' back in...
In the meantime gold'n'silver remain stable/up while metals futures are said to be going +0.58% atm.
No doubt about it, things will be interesting today, just look at what our bean-counter coworkers have got:
8:30 AM PCE Prices
8:30 AM Personal Income
8:30 AM Personal Spending
8:30 AM Personal Spending
8:30 AM Core PCE Prices
10:00 AM Construction Spending
10:00 AM ISM Index
All this and Iowa too --what's not to like?
People will only spend when they are confident that there is more where that came from. Scanning the economic disaster that the central planners have wrought world-wide, no one outside the recipients of central banks’ helicopter money can imagine themselves with comfortable cash flow. We are in for another down leg in the Pelosi-Reid-Bush-Obama Greater Depression. It is going to get much worse - to the point of bloodshed in some places - before it gets better.
Hillary just said in an interview that Obama never gets credit for saving the economy. Why could that be?
No one on the campaign trail is talking about it. There was no Social Security COLA, interest on savings is down near zero for years now, and utilities, inexpensive options for food, all expenses, keep increasing.
Hang in there. I've found that if you look hard enough, there still are ways to stretch the budget!
Question.Spend What?With the fantastic Obama economy and the pressures of food and healthcare prices.What else is left.Especially if your on the Virg of retirement.
The stock markets crash so often nothing is dependable anymore.Placing money in a savings account is a joke since you earn NO interest on. Your money.Your better off leaving your money out of the bank.
Buying durable goods made and imported from foreign countries helps out economy how?
For the nation as a whole there's a lot of wealth being created --average real wealth is just about at an all-time high tho it may be peaking when we should be continuing a climb. Wealth is always concentrated but these days it's more so than ever. Measuring just how much is foggy because of all the politics and controversy.
Will consumers spend in 2016? Only if they can transfer their credit card balances to a new card and then max it out.
A nations wealth is created in only three ways: by mining it, making it or growing it. Importing and retailing are not wealth creating enterprises.
--not to mention all that global warming too. Seriously, we know now for sure that Al Gore was wrong but he still got away w/ a decade of spouting doom'n'gloom nonsense. So like w/ the economy us grownups don't know that things are "going to get much worse".
What we know is that things are slow.
Yeah, and some say that the only true wealth is the sun in the morning and the moon at nite, or how about spiritual wealth --don't you believe? I like philosophy and religion as much as the next guy but if we can get back on topic and keep this an econ thread then we can talk about assets, debts, and net worth. That's where we're at and you're more than welcome to join us.
If not, anyone's free to begin a separate "my work in better than your work" thread elsewhere any time they want.
That's the mantra around here but real life is that U.S. consumer credit defaults/delinquencies are way down.
Spend? Nope!
Living expenses exclusively - food, utilities, taxes.
These are my only “bills”.
I’ll be starting my spring garden seedlings in a couple of weeks. A vegetable garden takes a real bite out of food costs.
You are the reason why Trump is doing well. The people know that there is something wrong with a retailing service economy. A strong powerful country has an industrialized economy. Effeminate people like you see no difference.
Usually, once you are empty nested, life insurance is a waste of money, especially if the mortgage is paid off.
Is our rising debt, and our ability to service it, a drag on economic growth?
But their debt loads are going up dramatically. Both short and long term.
The prospect of a republican president means the populace
will spend a bit more thinking they have hopes for future
growth. Put in Sanders or Herself! and higher taxation and
it will all come to a screeching halt.
Even now I’m seeing more retail construction than I’ve seen
in the last two terms.
God help this country if a prog is selected.
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