For Trump to win in Iowa, his support will have to come overwhelmingly from voters who are already registered as Republicans. The tens of thousands of newly registered caucus-goers just haven’t materialized. Personal connections still mean more than ephemeral ‘enthusiasm’.
Being a conservative is one thing. Getting the job done is another. Ted's Senate history is not so great.
For Trump to win in Iowa, his support will have to come overwhelmingly from voters who are already registered as Republicans. The tens of thousands of newly registered caucus-goers just haven’t materialized. Personal connections still mean more than ephemeral ‘enthusiasm’.
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Unfortunately they can register to caucus on Monday. I can see the “formerly lib democrat” Trump bussing in “new voters” from IL or MN. After all, if you can’t get there on merit buy or cheat your way in.
Note: I am not accusing Trump of cheating, just wouldn’t put it past him.
Agree, there’s several thousands of registered voters that don’t attend caucuses but
vote on election day. So Trump’s objective is to motivate them to caucus for him.
Will it work? We won’t know until about 9pm Monday night.
We will soon see if this “ground game” theory is true, or just another traditional axiom that has gone out the window in the Age of Trump.
But the real point is, Trump doesn’t need to WIN Iowa, just be in the top two spots, based on analysis of Iowan winners who have gone on to become the nominee.
Trump will no doubt do that. Cruz desperately needs to win Iowa or his campaign is essentially over as Trump will win NH and SC. For Trump, a win in Iowa just shortens the process.
Iowa allows caucus goers to register at the caucus. The newbies just might show up.