Posted on 01/28/2016 11:30:24 AM PST by Kaslin
Because of Donald Trump's decision to skip the last GOP debate before the Iowa Caucus, logic clearly leads to the inevitable conclusion that neither Iowa nor New Hampshire can possibly give us a true read on the race for the GOP presidential nomination.
Think about it. If Trump wins Iowa after skipping the debate, there will remain a lingering doubt of whether he could have pulled off the win had he been forced to answer tough questions. If he loses, there will be the issue of whether his decision to ditch the debate killed off the obvious momentum he was building there.
As for New Hampshire, Trump appears to be a prohibitive favorite to win. That likely victory still won't tell us much about the inevitability of a Trump nomination.
For all of the pundits and consultants and GOP "royalty" out there who want Trump out and by any possible means, South Carolina will be their one chance to possibly upend him. But it will be a very difficult task.
I've helped poll South Carolina for news organizations many times over the past few months, and Trump has consistently enjoyed a double digit lead over the other candidates in the state. And some polls -- such as the recent CBS/YouGov survey -- have Trump leading by nearly 20 points there.
Understand that while some of the recent attacks on Trump by pundits and self-declared "defenders of true conservativism" are sincere, others are motivated by money and power. This same circle of people who promote one another and earn their way in life by being "in the know" will be cut totally out of the loop should Trump be the nominee. The same goes for most of the GOP "guns for hire" that produce ads, emails, or raise money. They too will be out.
South Carolina, with its more multifaceted GOP primary voter base, will be the last stand for the establishment. But can they do it? Can they stop Donald Trump before he follows a potential South Carolina win with what appears to be a string of southern states where his lead is growing by the day?
Perhaps.
Those who don't really know the state will assume that the South Carolina GOP is dominated by evangelical voters. That's not really true. The upper crescent of the state tends to vote for so-called "Christian right" candidates, but their numbers do not dominate. Others will assume that the GOP's old guard can control the primary vote there. Not really. The party is no longer a powerful force unto itself in the state,
What about Governor Nikki Haley, won't she hurt Trump by endorsing an establishment candidate? Again, Haley's popularity, like that of Senator Lindsey Graham, who until recently was a candidate for president himself, does not transfer to others. In fact, Graham was pulling a lowly 4 percent in the polls in his own state, despite being well liked there. Remember, it was Newt Gingrich, not the establishment darling Romney that carried South Carolina four years ago.
In order for the multitude of candidates and others who want to stop Trump to succeed, several things must happen.
First, there must emerge one and only one establishment candidate. That will likely be either Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush. Rubio will likely place better than Bush in Iowa, but Bush is out polling Rubio in the latest New Hampshire poll and led Rubio in our most recent South Carolina survey.
But something will have to give because a race that still has Ted Cruz, Rubio, and Bush all vying to knock out Trump will end up with a Trump win.
Secondly, one of the anti-Trump gang needs to find a way to fire up the huge military and retired military vote in the state. Right now it appears that many of those voters are going for Trump. And while Trump's skipping a debate might hurt him in Iowa, his raising funds that same night for wounded veterans has South Carolina strategy written all over it.
Trump's decision to skip the Des Moines debate might or might not be a smart move. But it guarantees us that he won't "seal the deal" until he can prove himself in South Carolina. But if he does, the nomination will be his.
They'd better wear out their knees praying to St. Jude!
Trump hasn't been part of the eGOP "scene" in DC and those that have spent their entire lives climbing the social ladder in the eGOP are scared they won't retain their positions if Trump wins. Period. THAT is why they oppose Trump.
"Don't look now, but while our best conservative is running a political campaign, Trump is leading a rebellion. Not as a liberal or a conservative politician, but as a successful red-blooded, can-do American capitalist.", Jim Robinson
Do you really think the Cruz Carson Huckabee Christians will vote for a man who has nude pictures of his wife out there, whose been married 3 times, multiple affairs he bragged about, strip clubs he opened and God knows what else. Why vote for Bill Clinton trump when he’s what we already had. These voters will go third party or stay home. I won’t vote for a man like this.
Florida will the final nail in the GOPe coffin.
I don’t let myself get influenced by negative ads, especially Jeb Bush’s anti Rubio ads
He opened Strip clubs? That is the first time I heard of it?
Florida is Trump country!
Unless Rubio quits and throws his support to Cruz neither candidate has a prayer in Florida. Even then it’s doubtful.
That’s exactly what I was thinking and I’m more of a Cruz supporter.
I have the feeling it’ll be over by 3/1, Super Tuesday. Would be surprised to see it go to 3/15 when Ohio votes.
How many of the candidates will have a dime left by then? SuperPACs notwithstanding. The billionaires who fund those are typically very smart people who know when to cut their losses.
I absolutely will sleep well. The republican brand (which has been tainted for decades) is directly tied to the RINOs after Reagan who have been elected in. Every year you hear the same old tired argument “you’d rather this or that democrat get in? Damn right I would if it means not compromising on my principles. Every 4 years we are asked to hold our noses then I hear the folks hem and haw over how non conservative he is over the next 4 years. It’s like a child killing his parents then crying because he’s an orphan.
It may take another century for the republican brand to be repaired. Voting a non conservative like Trump (because he is winning) is and has been EXACTLY what is wrong with the Republican Party.
I think it’ll take the winner-take-all primaries for the leading candidate to pull away.
A big winner in Ga, Tx and some other states would change that. But proportional primaries make it hard for someone to get a strong lead.
Oh, are they trying to stop him?
He’s one of them.
Thank you for your post. I absolutely agree with this statement: “Voting a non conservative like Trump (because he is winning) is and has been EXACTLY what is wrong with the Republican Party.” Give us Dole, McCain, Romney and NOW Trump because they’ve waited their turn or can win. How in the hell do I win with someone who has been a Democrat most of his life, donated money to the Clintons, supported the Kelo decision and will probably appoint liberal SC justices. Who the heck knows who he will appoint? Unlike Trump, Cruz has an established track record. Four years of Trump may be another four years of political hell because NO ONE knows what we’ll get, but I’m certain Trump would be a massive disappointment. From Obama to a serial adulterer and strip club owner. Great!
Vote for Mr Single Payor 2000? Not only no! Why do you think every lib in the universe is supporting him? To protect obamacare. He was Mr Single Payor during his 2000 run for prez! Whichever way the nomination blows, you will find trump, Reid, pelosi.
He supports health savings plans and individual insurance sold across state lines. The government insurance is for the poor. Or is having them show up at emergency rooms and hiding the costs in our hospital bills and government subsidies better,? Trump is just being honest about who is paying forthe poor..
>> Think about it
Which means to yield to another’s opinion.
Ummm... Not sure about that “logic” used by the author since there are debates before both the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries.
If Trump wins Iowa and New Hampshire, his lead will more than hold up in South Carolina. He should win the Nevada caucus, do very well on Super Tuesday (with maybe Cruz winning his home state of Texas) and roll through through the rest of the primary schedule.
The GOP-e’s only real chance is to coalesce around a RINO candidate like Rubio. But that would mean Bush and the rest of the pack would have to pack up and go home.
I agree. Even Ted Cruz himself has said that if Trump wins both Iowa and NH that he will be virtually unstoppable.
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