Trump will change this model big time. In fact on the news this morning, they said Democratic Party would only get 45-48 percent and the formula has only been wrong 3 times since 1960.
“Those results are heavily dependent on how swing states vote.”
i.e., we don’t know.
Say “Hello” (or is it “Heil”) to President Bernie Sanders! Give it up now - no more arguing about DJT vs Cruz, Establishment vs outsider.
The election is all but wrapped up, we can go on with other things now. Or until Bernie gets into office and shuts down places like FR.
ANY analysis this far out is utterly meaningless.
The proper title for the results of Moody’s analytics should have been “Too Close to Call.” So, to say the Dems win it is politicizing the results of the analytics.
While the dems own a structural advantage (guaranteed 240 EVs), their margin of victory won’t be that high. It’ll be closer than 2008 and 2012.
Strength of the economy? Really?
I thought the sucky economy was the #1 issue for Democrats.
I agree with the author but for different reasons. The Democrats have a built in advantage because the population centers are all or mostly all heavily Democrat. That in itself gives them about 230-240 electoral votes going in. Then given the Republicans propensity to eat their own, I see many many voters simply not bothering to vote this year.
Early in 2015, the frontrunners were telling us what they wanted to do if elected. Since Thanksgiving, it seems all we have heard is how awful their opponents are. Cruzers hate anything and everything Trump. Trumpsters hate anything and every thing Cruz. Change the names to Rubio, Bush and Kasich and it is just as bad or worse.
I am starting to think this country could even elect a Bernie Sanders at this point.
Well we might as well just cancel the general election and only hold the vote in the swing states. It would save a lot of time and money in our 40 or so red flyover states and the east and left coast that is guaranteed to be blue.
Silly people think old rules apply. Which Democrat a Communist or a Felon will beat Trump?
Moody’s...the same folks who rated subprimes as AAA. Hoo-kay!
“Florida, Ohio, Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia”
There is some truth here.
Cruz would loose every one of these states except for maybe CO.
Trump easily could pickup every one except for maybe Virginia plus pickup NV, IA and MI
If so, the greatest ammo shortage in US history will start in November.