Neither one is a threat to Trump.
Posted on 01/05/2016 4:30:47 AM PST by usafa92
Donald Trump is looking strong in Michigan, with a 15 point lead over Marco Rubio.
Not far behind Rubio is Ted Cruz with 17% of the vote. The Cruz/Rubio dynamic is going to be interesting over the next couple of months, and I suspect it will come to a head on March 1st. Unless something wild happens, either Cruz, or Rubio, will probably drop out of the race in mid-March. While Rubio may be shut out of receiving any delegates due to not reaching Texas' proportionality threshold of 20%, there is a decent chance he would win Florida outright on March 15th, which is a winner take all state. Trump and Cruz split the Texas delegates, Rubio takes all of Florida's, and everything would come down to who has been doing better outside of their home state.
(Excerpt) Read more at overtimepolitics.com ...
Trump ping.
GO TRUMP!!!!!!
JMHO
what planet is he on. No way Rubio wins Florida. It is a closed primary.
Neither one is a threat to Trump.
Wow! “Surging Ted” can ALMOST see Trump from where he sits in this poll. He’s even behind Senior Amnesty.
Note Trump up big among blacks (as in all previous GOP polls), 37-11 over Cruz.
Rubio beats all among Hispanics, but look how badly Cruz does with Hispanics---worse than Trump, 7%.
Trump wins huge among men, wins with women 28-23 over Rubio, huge among women (28-15) over Cruz.
Finally, look at incomes of over $45,000 (which I would generally put at "college degree" although certainly not in all cases): Trump 28-20 over Rubio, 28-8 over Cruz for "over $65,000" and 29-16 Trump over Rubio among $45-65,000 and 29-24 over Cruz in this category. (BTW, note how well Carson does in "over $65,000" category.
In short, with the exception of Rubio and MI hispanics, it's an across-the-board sweep.
See my analysis of details in #10, below.
The Hill has an NBC/ Survey Monkey poll story that corroborates this but Trump is 2 points higher & Cruz bests Rubio by 1 point.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/264742-poll-trump-holds-17-point-lead
Libbylu: probably one of the few times I’m going to agree with u this primary season. This pollster had to go and add his long term analysis which is useless and most likely flawed. Rubio does not win Florida and Ted does not drop out by March 15th. I’m obviously a Trump guy but this analysis is way off base.
I actually don’t think this pollster is too accurate but for reasons you will disagree with me about. Trump polls 32-33-34 in every poll from this pollster (except Mass where he’s at 41). You might argue that is Trump’s ceiling and that’s why he’s at those numbers. I’d argue that statistically, Trump can’t be the same everywhere. There has to be some variation in these numbers good bad or indifferent. You will notice that Ted is all over the map with this pollster, from mid teens to mid 20’s. That’s probably expected. Either Trump is totally locked in to his numbers or Trump is actually polling higher in line with his national numbers with a few lower numbers sprinkled in.
quote “there is a decent chance he would win Florida outright on March 15th, which is a winner take all state.”
lol
here is the most recent poll of Florida
Trump 30%
Cruz 20%
Rubio 15%
How does Rubio “have a decent chance” of winning Florida?
I have never seen such a disconnect between reality and the reporting of it!
Trump derangement syndrome in full effect!
I’m curious if Trump might see if Cruz would be the VP candidate. If Cruz would agree to do that, it would basically lock up the nomination before the first primary. The Establishment would be beside themselves.
You are a brave one posting that on this board....The Cruz supporters don’t like such suggestions! lol...I think that is a definite scenario down the road but not before deep into the primary season. The goal of Trump and Cruz should be to lock up as many delegates as possible between the two so that they can minimize GOPe interference later in the game. Besides, Cruz thinks he has a path to victory. I don’t see it, but he will not fold up early. I am not a big Cruz fan, but it behooves these two to work in tandem for as long as possible.
18% of my former Michigan neighbors are falling for the Marco Scam?
Seriously??
Rubio has NO CHANCE of winning Florida
When Trump bought his estate in Florida the clubs in Palm Beach were not open to Jews (40% of population ) or AA. He refused to join. When he opened his club it was opened to all. The local establishment were abhorred. They tried everything they could to make his life uncomfortable including outlawing his large flag. He stood by his open door policy Expect both the PB area in FL and NYC Jewish community to vote en masse for their friend.
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