Posted on 12/21/2015 9:10:29 AM PST by GonzoII
So far in the 2016 presidential campaign season, a vocal crowd of political pundits have said Donald Trump's seemingly insurmountable lead in the Republican primary is based on exaggerated, inflated numbers.
There is at least one man who thinks just the opposite: Kyle Dropp,
Dropp, a political science professor at Dartmouth University, says Trump's real polling numbers may actually be even higher - because some survey respondents are shy about declaring their support for the reality TV star during phone interviews with pollsters.
Dropp told The Washington Post in a story published Monday that Trump's performance in online or automated polls exceeds his ratings from live phone interviews - 'a slight but statistically significant gulf (that) has stubbornly persisted over the six months' of Trump's campaign.
A Dartmouth University political scientist believes 'social desirability bias' may be at work in Trump's polling numbers - a theory that suggests Republican voters are less likely to express their support for him because they are shy or embarrassed to do so
Dropp points to a theory called 'social desirability bias,' in which someone is afraid to express support for a particular candidate out of a fear of being judged.
Precedents include two gubernatorial races in California where well-known actors - Ronald Reagan in 1966 and Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2003 - were elected governor despite apparent low-performing polls possibly because of the same reason.
Dropp even conducted a study last week to test the theory of different responses to polling inquiries by automated call, online or a live interview with an actual pollster on the phone.
Trump received 38 percent online but only 32 percent in live calls. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, however, received the same percentage from both methods
(Excerpt) Read more at nyooztrend.com ...
Likely so.
‘The Silent Majority’: We are not saying we are voting for Trump, but we are....sshhhh
With all the identity theft going on some will not give any answers that might compromise their data.
I’m not necessarily “for” Trump, but sure as heck am against the GOPee and their fellow traveller ‘rats.
Interesting graph there. Reagan being behind light years until the beginning of June.
Juxtapose Trump’s numbers 6 month behind Reagan’s. Trump is doing very well.
Good post. And a lot of truth there, I think.
By the way, the same goes for those polls that show relatively low gun ownership. Someone gets a call at home. “Do you own any guns?” the pollster asks. “Well, no,” the homeowner replies. Then the homeowner hangs up and goes back to cleaning his deer rifle.
Of course this is true. Same might apply to a lesser degree to Cruz.
I believe this is indeed the case. They love him here in southwest Florida.
But they will be politically incorrect in the voting booth when they cast their ballot for Trump.
So Trump now has the Doug Wilder Syndrome in White Face! LoL - I agree but this is amazing that he is so thoroughly re-writing the rules! Go Trump Go!
So Trump now has the Doug Wilder Syndrome in White Face! LoL - I agree but this is amazing that he is so thoroughly re-writing the rules! Go Trump Go!
So Trump now has the Doug Wilder Syndrome in White Face! LoL - I agree but this is amazing that he is so thoroughly re-writing the rules! Go Trump Go!
Not sure. I don’t believe in the Wilder effect. We learned in 08 and 2012 that this didn’t exist. I hope I’m wrong, but even without this, Trump dominates the polls.
I think we’re going to see the biggest landslide in modern American history for Trump. Big league history in the making.
It’s about time someone called out this effect.
Many times I have been asked what I thought about Trump by liberals and have hedged my enthusiasm with tepid responses, like “he could get the nomination” or “he’s a real showman” etc.
In reality, he and Cruz are the only remotely viable choices this cycle. But I don’t proclaim that to liberals.
However, I would proclaim this to a pollster, so why are people hesitating there?
The dirty secret of the polling industry is that it is getting increasingly more difficult to get people to talk to pollsters http://www.people-press.org/2012/05/15/assessing-the-representativeness-of-public-opinion-surveys/
“Could Trump’s massive numbers be under-selling him? []people ashamed to tell pollsters they love him”
Yes.
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