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Why Ted Cruz Probably Won’t Win
National Review ^ | 11/25/2015 | HENRY OLSEN

Posted on 11/25/2015 12:15:34 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel

Ted Cruz is now the flavor of the week. He has risen dramatically in polls, both nationally and in key states like Iowa, and now many pundits are saying he's the man to watch. Maybe so, but that vastly underestimates the challenge the very conservative senator from Texas still faces.

Cruz's rise is almost entirely due to his finally getting strong levels of support among the most angry and the most conservative elements of the party. If they were the party, it would be looking pretty good for Ted. But they are not, and therein lies Cruz's challenge. Call it the Cruz Ted bears.

The data are clear that Cruz is consolidating the party's Tea Party and very conservative factions. Three national polls in November break Republicans into three ideological categories, dividing conservatives into "very" and "somewhat" conservatives. They all show Cruz's support comes primarily from that first group. Quinnipiac has him with 27 percent among very conservatives, 7 percent among somewhat conservatives, and 6 percent among moderates. McClatchy/Marist has him at 21-8-5 among those three groups, and Public Policy Polling (PPP) has him at 29-10-1. The ideological right likes him a lot, while the center and the left of the Party are at best lukewarm towards him.

The same trends are evident if you break voters into Tea Party supporters and non-supporters. Quinnipiac has Cruz getting 30 percent of Tea Partiers compared with only 13 percent overall. PPP has him getting 26 percent of Tea Partiers but only 10 percent of those who say they are not.

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Texas
KEYWORDS:
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Interesting.
1 posted on 11/25/2015 12:15:34 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain
"HENRY OLSEN "?

Is he some kind of looser?

2 posted on 11/25/2015 12:17:13 PM PST by Paladin2 (my non-desktop devices are no longer allowed to try to fix speling and punctuation, nor my gran-mah.)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

Since anyone besides Cruz or Trump are more palatable to NR, I take any argument they make with a grain of salt.


3 posted on 11/25/2015 12:17:26 PM PST by dp0622 (..)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

Cruz will win from the other side of the ticket.


4 posted on 11/25/2015 12:17:47 PM PST by stephenjohnbanker (My Batting Average( 1,000) since Nov 2014 (GOPe is that easy to read)
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To: dp0622

You are too kind. I pee on NR.


5 posted on 11/25/2015 12:18:42 PM PST by stephenjohnbanker (My Batting Average( 1,000) since Nov 2014 (GOPe is that easy to read)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

In other words, he gets little support form RINOs. Not surprising.


6 posted on 11/25/2015 12:19:07 PM PST by Blood of Tyrants (There's a right to gay marriage in the Constitution but there is no right of an unborn baby to life.)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain
I don't see Trump in there. Realistically, all those running should be included.

/johnny

7 posted on 11/25/2015 12:19:24 PM PST by JRandomFreeper (gone Galt)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain
Not really. I consider these polls mostly BS.

In addition to that the NR is the party rag of the GOPe, this is exactly what they would want a poll to say hence....

A poll that says only the TeaParty loves Cruz and we all know what crazy bast@rds they are.

8 posted on 11/25/2015 12:19:36 PM PST by Pietro
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

“Most Angry”..

What an idiot. This pundit needs to crawl back into his hole.


9 posted on 11/25/2015 12:20:01 PM PST by JSDude1
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To: dp0622

The GOPe doesn’t have to try to get my vote or those of my family. I will either vote for Cruz, Trump or not at all.
The rest of them are not an option...


10 posted on 11/25/2015 12:20:50 PM PST by Russ (Repeal the '17th amendment.)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZbKHDPPrrc


11 posted on 11/25/2015 12:21:07 PM PST by Paladin2 (my non-desktop devices are no longer allowed to try to fix speling and punctuation, nor my gran-mah.)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

GOP needs to play to the center....only way to win....yadda yadda....


12 posted on 11/25/2015 12:21:28 PM PST by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Pietro

The same wingnuts were absolutely convinced Reagan could not possibly win.


13 posted on 11/25/2015 12:21:32 PM PST by Louis Foxwell (Stop Islam and save the world.)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

“Cruz’s rise is almost entirely due to his finally getting strong levels of support among the most angry and the most conservative elements of the party.”

It would be more accurate to say Senator Cruz is getting support from the more intelligent and more aware members of the populace. The media uses the insult angry to describe informed citizens.

The people who blindly and ignorantly believe whatever the media says do not support Senator Cruz. His supporters are those who can think for themselves and make intelligent decisions.


14 posted on 11/25/2015 12:22:16 PM PST by detective
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To: detective

Incoming, incoming. This is not a drill!!!


15 posted on 11/25/2015 12:23:45 PM PST by gov_bean_ counter (Tony Schwartz and Meredith McIver, a couple of dam* fine authors...)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

The center and the Left of the party will follow who ever the party nominates. They are the ultimate sheep. What is interesting to note is that Cruz is beating Hillary head to head for the 1st time.


16 posted on 11/25/2015 12:23:49 PM PST by MNJohnnie ( Tyranny, like Hell, is not easily conquered)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

Why Ben Carson Can Win
By Henry Olsen
http://www.nationalreview.com/2016-gops-four-faces/426028/why-ben-carson-can-win


17 posted on 11/25/2015 12:24:02 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (TED CRUZ. You can help: https://donate.tedcruz.org/c/FBTX0095/)
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To: Paladin2

His father Jimmy was a much better reporter.


18 posted on 11/25/2015 12:24:20 PM PST by PlateOfShrimp
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To: PlateOfShrimp

LOL!


19 posted on 11/25/2015 12:25:03 PM PST by gov_bean_ counter (Tony Schwartz and Meredith McIver, a couple of dam* fine authors...)
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To: dp0622

salt? try sand.


20 posted on 11/25/2015 12:25:17 PM PST by SandRat (Duty - Honor - Country! What else needs said?)
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