Posted on 11/23/2015 12:48:57 PM PST by VinL
The CBS poll over the weekend had Cruz nosing into second in Iowa. Trump still leads at 30 percent, with Cruz at 21 and Carson at 19.
At this point, I think you have to say Cruz is the favorite to win Iowa .. in fact if this is where the race stood in a poll the weekend before the caucuses, I'd still bet on Cruz because I assume his voters are very motivated and very reliable caucus voters.
It's hard to exaggerate how much things have broken Cruz's way. Potential threats to him in Iowa have faded away, with Scott Walker out of the race and Rand Paul a non factor.
Meanwhile, Carson has been losing some altitude on his own. This is exactly what Cruz expected and hoped for, because he couldn't go out and attack Carson.
The numbers on who Iowa Republicans consider ready to be commander.in .chief are off the charts for Cruz. He’s at 67 percent ready and 15 percent not ready, solidly ahead of anyone else and particularly Ben Carson, at 43 to 38.
Of course, it's still early and Trump is still ahead. If Trump were calculating his interests cold bloodedly, instead of getting charmed by Cruz’s nice treatment of him..he'd realize the threat from Cruz and begin to go after him.
This seems almost inevitable at some point, which will be awkward for Cruz but you can see the Texan responding more in sorrow than in anger: "I admire Donald Trump, but I hate to say, he's just not a conservative."
Regardless of whether you'd personally vote for them, which of these candidates do you feel is ready to be Commander in Chief, if elected?
Cruz 67 Rubio 51 Trump 49 Carson 43 Bush 38
>> At this point, I think you have to say Cruz is the favorite to win Iowa
Huh?
I’m all in for Ted Cruz and I hope he *does* win Iowa. But *WHY* do you “have to say Cruz is the favorite” when Trump has NINE POINTS on him? Makes no sense, even if I’d like to believe it.
Rick Santorum won from 4th place in all the polling.
What type of goofy question is this anyway?
Instant C-in-C isnt a thing you bring as part of a package. You either nail it or you dont.
You are right. It makes no sense at all.
Exactly what I was thinking-— Trump would be crazy to criticize Cruz— They agree on most things... But to read the poll numbers and then claim that Cruz has to be seen as the favorite immediately loses all of the author’s credibility and turns him into a laughingstock..
Keep breathing hard Richie and click your heels together if you think it will help but it aint happening.
VinL, that’s a nice bit of information for you guys.
The only problem is, the same people ignored that thought, and supported Trump over Cruz by 7-9 points, whatever the exact figure was.
Ground game, baby.
Cruz gots it.
Not anything against Trump, who I would take as a second choice.
But Cruz is organized, has grass roots, and is strong on all major components of policy and character.
Grind it out, Ted. Go get ‘em!
(By which I do not mean attack Trump. Attack 0bama / Clinton, and may the best man win!)
Don’t forget that Lowry has made National Review a RINO mouthpiece.
A favorite in a football game or in politics means little. To be fair, it is really an unknown whether Iowa Trump supporters will actually show up and spend some time or whether they just relish his celebrity. Cruz supporters are much more likely to be previous caucus attendees and know how to follow through.
Someone like Lowry (who wants business as usual), and even others more thoughtful, could legitimately see Cruz as a slight Iowa favorite from this far away.
>> Rick Santorum won from 4th place in all the polling.
Yeah, third or fourth depending on what poll(s), and when. Here is a decent compilation: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-iowa-gop-primary
...but at the time he was polling fourth, was there a brave pundit like Rich Lowry writing articles assuring us that he was the “favorite” to win?
The author is trump-hater Rich Lowry...the little weasel.
Re: “Here Comes Cruz”
Great news, except for one problem...
I don’t believe Cruz’s sudden, “Road To The White House,” conversion on immigration.
Twelve months ago Cruz supported more H-1B visas, more Green Cards, more LEGAL immigration from China and Mexico, and “temporary” work permits for all illegal immigrants who have obeyed all other USA laws.
Lowry is talking about an idea similar to the Bradley or Shy Tory effect. Basically, certain people tell pollsters what is socially acceptable, but then vote differently when they have to make the final decision.
In the case of Trump, however, the idea is that a lot of people want to upset the status quo by giving Trump a lot of support in public, but when they get into the voting booth they will realize that he may not be everything they want and will pull the lever for someone else.
Part of that might be wishful thinking, but part of it is seen in the polling that shows that a sizable number of Trump supporters say they could still change their mind.
Cruz has a very effective and well motivated ground team in Iowa. He may draw a lot more caucus goers than anticipated if Trump is viewed as unacceptable to many supporters of other candidates and there is a last minute move to consolidate behind a single candidate to stop Trump.
If Trump has hit a solid cap of 30 to 35% of likely voters, Cruz still has room to swing by. If Trump’s numbers start solidifying in the uppers 30s to 40s by the end of December, there will be little chance of anyone stopping him.
Thanks for the insight.
More power to Ted Cruz! I’m praying for him. Certainly he can pull it off, with GOD’s help.
So, Trump knocks Carson for a tailspin, maintains his lead, but the media proclaims Cruz the winner?
I like Cruz, but this is nonsense.
NRO couldn’t prop up Carson, so they’re hoping Cruz will knock out Trump next. It will not go as they plan.
Neither you nor I know "how it's going to go". Crystal balls are a myth.
Yea, I caught it was Rich Lowry after I commented on here— he was the guy who said Trump was emasculated by Fiorina and was all done 3 months ago.. haha.. His logic seems so sound I can not understand why he keeps being wrong.. lol..
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