“So far they HAVE been trending towards Cruz, at least in national polling. If some go over to Santorum or Huckabee, and those two eventually drop out, the delegates will more likely go to Cruz than Trump at this point, I believe. Fiorina delegates can go anywhere, and Kasich and Christie votes might wind up with Rubio. The John Ellis Bush votes will cry, as the John Ellis Bushies resent the hades out of Rubio. “
I think you are *probably* correct.
It’s just that many things can happen in the remaining time that could color how people order their priorities.
Economic crisis? Who is best?
War? Who would be the best guy to run it?
Domestic terrorism? Who is best?
ETC
Not to mention anything that comes out about any candidate - from an error or a report - that colors perception.
It isn’t a static game.
It is a moving target and rotation is probably normal.