Adjusted Polling Averages
Posted on 11/17/2015 5:35:06 PM PST by BigEdLB
Adjusted Polling Averages
(Excerpt) Read more at freerepublic.com ...
Wow, Bush as 12.5% in TN. Two polls and one must be of only east TN Rino’s that love Lamar and Corker and Haslam.
Carson+Hucksterbee is 22%. Weird.
Rubio at 2.4% and I can see why. The 12.5 for Bush will go to him next though.
Great work.
Carson’s trending down.
Glad to see Cruz doing well and Trump mentioning him as a VP. Would be ideal that Cruz would follow Trump’s administration. Trump might be one-term as well given his age.
Cruz could be an active VP and crack heads in Congress. Would love to see him on the Supreme Court one day as well.
We’ve got a great bunch of candidates.
The Democrats have nothing. Obama has wiped out the next generation of Democrats as well. They lost tons of offices down the line because everyone figured out what Democrats actually do when in office.
Obama was elected by a super-active minority voter turnout (blacks) which skewed the election results. Hillary won’t get that.
Morning Consult, Reuters, and Yougov. Allwere fairly consistent with each other. 1. Trump over30. 2 Carson. 3 Cruz 4 Rubio. Trump and Carson a gap over the others.
My hope is once/ week
NICE spreadsheet! Thanks for your tie and effort on this.
All I can say is, Tennessee-what are you thinking? 12% for Bush?
time, not tie. I doubt you’d be wearing one, if at home.
And I was rhetorically asking ‘Tennessee’, not you!
“Wow, Bush as 12.5% in TN. Two polls and one must be of only east TN Rino’s that love Lamar and Corker and Haslam.”
Hey, it’s WEST Tennessee that is infiltrated with liberals, namely Memphis and Nashville.
WE are hardcore conservatives here! (spoken as one that just moved here to escape liberalism, so don’t break my heart telling me I moved to the wrong place!)
Thanks for the input. I’m somewhat familiar with Reuters but not the others. Personally I wouldn’t put much weight on Reuters due the volatility of their poll. It’s just all over the map.
One other critique: if you are averaging the State Polls to get a national average you are, in some cases, averaging very old polls. If you are averaging old national polls you are doing the same.
You should post details of your averaging methodology. The major virtue of RCP is that they toss out any polls over 2 or 3 weeks old. I think you need to do something like that as well and you may be doing so already.
Let us know. This is a really important task you have undertaken and a big job. I really want to encourage you to keep it up.
Old polls go away if there are newer ones. I am still working on an algorhythm based on age.
We sure have some talented people at FR!!!!
Thank-you!....Kudos!!!!
YOU are top of the line! Thank you very much for your work.
“We sure have some talented people at FR!!!!”
Ain’t that the truth.
RCP has not added the head to head TrumpClinton PPP poll for S Carolina even though the others are there. Bias? I sent them an Email
Great Job. As the internals continue to show the GOPe cratering, more they will suppress them.
Check RCP polling on Vitter/Edwards race in LA and then read this.
I don't mean to be obtuse, but is your poll and aggregate of various polls? PPP? What are you raw source(s) of info?
When I do the next one, I will explain the methodology. I am still working out bugs. But what I have is already better than RCP and The Huffy.
Thanks Ed!!!!
There was a poll with either Rubio or Kasich up in OH, but that was a month ago. I thought I saw one with Trump up since. Ditto IA-—didn’t PPP have an IA poll with him up?
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