RCP Averages are useless. So I did my own.

BigEdLB - Vanity ^ | 11/17/15 | BigEdLB

[BigEdLB]

Adjusted Polling Averages

[BigEdLB]

I am sick of RCP's GOPe attitude in regard to polling. The last straw was today, when none of the three National polls were posted. Then they left out the Trump v Hillary in S Carolina from PPP though the others were posted. Then they put up a poll in Virginia from some obscure college that showed Carson ahead. I am tired of the nonsense. I will adjust and tweak as time goes along. Hopefully this will be a better resource. Carson still up a smidge in Iowa, so I will look at that.

[PA Engineer]

Excellent work. Thanks for the post. BTTT.

[changeitback440]

your efforts are appreciated

[WENDLE]

GREAT work. Thank you == I studied it. CARSON IS TOAST!! He got Kookified real bad and Reuters has him plummeting in 1 week from 21% to 14.6%% He is absolutely finished!! Don’t mess wit THE Donald!!

[kaehurowing]

No figures for Hawaii because it is illegal to be a Republican there.

[hoosiermama]

Fyi

[Verginius Rufus]

Who is the “other” polling at 10.3% in Missouri? Darren Wilson?

[867V309]

Awesome, biged! Thanks!

[LS]

Thanks-—but GEORGIA? Trump was at 30 and up double digits last I looked.

[FenwickBabbitt]

Thanks! This is great. I can’t believe how obvious RCP is in their bias. Two weeks with no update to the national poll average! Must be a clear sign that Trump and his perpetually “imploding” campaign are really pulling away from Carson and the rest. RCP is giving the press the excuse to claim that Trump and Carson are still neck-to-neck because of this. How ridiculous.

[tinyowl]

Thanks Ed! Please continue!!!

If you want, let’s get a domain name an pop these up on the internet ... would be easy.

Comment: look at MA for Trump -> my former home state for a long time - they are nuts (in this case, in a good way.) Because MA is so corrupt and liberal and crazy and intellectually arrogant, the Democrats get all the attention, but here you have the Republicans (if you can call them that, then again, you can’t many Republicans ‘Republicans’ these days, I unregistered) going for Trump double the national average.

I realize this will catalyze C. Edmond Wright to say ‘See! He’s a liberal you idiot!’.

[PGalt]

Terrific work BigEdLB (and comment). Citizen journalist BUMP!

[SamAdams76]

[Albion Wilde]

Ping!

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* * *

Trump articles on FR with links, from 3:00 to 10:30 PM, 11/17/15

FReeper Polling: "RealClearPolitics Averages are useless. So I did my own."
Trump Rides a Blue-Collar Wave: Fifty-five percent of his supporters are white working-class.
GOP leaders: National security will end Carson and Trump campaigns
WATCH Donald Trump and Melania interview with Barbara Walters on ABC's 2020 this Friday!
Donald Trump slams Obama on Syrian refugees: 'Is he insane?'
DONALD TRUMP AGAIN VOWS TO "BOMB THE S*** OUT OF ISIS'; RIDICULES WEAKNESS OF OBAMA AND CLINTON
What Trump isn't Saying (vanity)
Would President Trump Fix the "Broken" Immigration?
Urgent Message from Trump!
Trump names Cruz when asked about VP spot
Trump: Obama sending refugees to Republican states
Trump: I Will Build 'a Big Beautiful Safe Zone' in Syria for Refugees
Trump takes 9-point lead over Carson
These presidential candidates depend on Wall Street the most
President Obama: I would've loved to run against Trump -- 'that would've been fun'
Morning Consult - Trump 38-19
Trump Rises among Republicans, especially with likely Republican Voters

[BigEdLB]

Most recent GA poll is problematic. Logically you are correct. The Morning consult shows Trump way up in every region except Midwest. I will tweak this project. It is a work in progress.

[Jane Long]

Thanks for your time and effort.

I agree about the RCP polls. Very selective.

[InterceptPoint]

Very nice job and a lot of work. The results, however, pretty much track those at RCP.

Could you tell us which 3 national polls that RCP is ignoring.

Personally I really doubt that there is a political bias at RCP. They have rules they apply related to sample size and methodology and the age of the poll. That can result in the exclusion of certain polls that we like and give the appearance of bias where it doesn’t actually exist.

But it could be bias as well. I just doubt it. Proof, if there is any, would be nice.

[BigEdLB]

I could have fatfingered something in MO.

[SunLakesJeff]

I am tired of the nonsense.

The more legitmate, methodological polls are not free, particularly with regard to sampling. You will need a massive database and questionnaires should you conduct your own. In short, Garbage In, Garbage Out. Best of luck.

[ELS]

Thank you for the effort you put into this analysis! The chart is quite informative.