[Impy]

Oldham West and Royton by election. Manchester area.

UKIP came in 2nd in a bunch of Labour seats, as I recall, eurospectic Labour voters unwilling to vote Tory gave them some support. The UKIP narrowly beat the Tories for 2nd place at the general election for this one, Labour was over 50% but was under 50% in the previous election. Outside chance of victory but hard with the Tories spitting the vote.

[SunkenCiv]

Nigel Farage and UKIP has bubbled back up to the top of the news after a catastrophically poor showing in the election early this year. The only parties which did well were the Tories and the SNP. My wild guess is, David Cameron will announce a specific date for the UK's EU referendum, and that date will be roughly a year from now. The result of that move will be to tip help tip Labour out of the seat (see the graphic showing one of UKIP's campaign posters), regardless of whether it winds up UKIP or Conservative. That avoids the head-on collision the Tories would suffer if he announced new restrictions on immigration.

• Watch: UKIP Leader Says Obama Wants To Kill Britain Through Islamic Immigration
• 'German UKIP' Climbs to Third Place In Wake Of Migrant Crisis, Paris Attacks [Greens now 4th]
• Nigel Farage Confronts Angela Merkel about Failure of EU, Currency and "Refugees"
• Nigel Farage why are rich Arab states not taking immigrants?
• Immigration Will Be The Defining Issue Of This EU Referendum Campaign

and from outside FR:

• Ukip accused of 'trying to divide Oldham' with by-election leaflet following Paris terror attacks

  The row was sparked after a by-election leaflet claimed Labour want uncontrolled immigration and to abolish the army

• Tim Farron MP writes…Come and help Jane Brophy in Oldham West and Royton [Liberal Democrat Voice, 'Not paid for by trade unions or millionaires.']
• How Ukip intends to fight (and maybe win) the Oldham West & Royton by-election

[SunkenCiv]

Jeremy Corbyn is ‘not happy’ about order to ‘shoot to kill’ terrorists on UK’s streets
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3320764/Corbyn-not-happy-special-forces-given-orders-shoot-kill-terrorists-Britain-s-streets.html

‘F***ing disgrace!’: Labour in open revolt as Corbyn is isolated over refusal to let police shoot to kill terrorists as even his own frontbench backs ‘lethal force’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3320764/Corbyn-not-happy-special-forces-given-orders-shoot-kill-terrorists-Britain-s-streets.html

Jeremy Corbyn accepts shoot-to-kill policy after Labour MPs savage his opposition
Labour leader’s spectacular U-turn after earlier saying he is ‘not happy’ with shoot-to-kill policy if terrorists were loose in the UK
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12000003/Jeremy-Corbyn-savaged-by-Labour-MPs-over-shoot-to-kill-opposition.html

Labour in a spot of bother in Oldham West by-election
Isabel Hardman
17 November 2015
http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/11/labour-in-a-spot-of-bother-in-oldham-west-by-election/

A number of Labourites are very worried about the impact that Jeremy Corbyn’s shoot-to-kill comments will have on the party’s chances in the Oldham West and Royton by-election. They think it is the latest in a line of incidents that will suggest to voters in that seat that the Labour leader isn’t really thinking about things that they worry about, and is more focused on the things that London types worry about.

I understand that those involved in the campaign are worried the party is already in trouble, anyway. They believe that Corbyn is going down very badly with the large numbers of white working class voters in the seat, and that even though the South Asian population are largely turning to Labour, this will not create enough of a lead for the party to be able to sustain big white working class losses to Ukip. The Tory vote in the seat is also turning to Nigel Farage’s party, which has led sources to conclude that if Ukip does campaign hard and well, it could win.

Now, given figures in the party are acknowledging this early, when the by-election is on 3 December, Labour still has a chance of redoubling its efforts and forcing the central party to take note of the problems that poorly-thought-through comments from the leader could cause. Better than realising at the very last minute that things are getting messy, as happened in the Heywood and Middleton by-election, where Ukip came very close indeed. But Ukip could have had an even better chance of winning in Heywood and Middleton had the party’s top brass acknowledged what those on the ground were saying about the potential that this seat had, and diverted resources from Clacton. This time around, Ukip is already raring to go, and certainly is campaigning hard.