Because of this: 
Shows the huge crowds and what the MDSM does not show.
Trump: ..."Pan the d@mn cameras" See...they don't do it
Crowd boos the camera operators.
Posted on 10/27/2015 4:59:47 AM PDT by jimbo123
Good post, Laz....thanks for the ping.
Carson will fold like a cheap suit. More to come.....
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3353374/posts
Sorry for that silly post. I was filling out my eHarmony application.
We have never elected a POTUS with those attributes and how foolish of me to believe we could, or would.
The bottom line is that polls can't predict voter turnout. It doesn't matter if 60% say that they would prefer a Republican over a Democrat if half of those aren't inspired enough by the Republican to bother to vote while Democrats get 80-90% turnout. Running candidates like McCain, Romney, or Jeb guarantees that a big block of Republican-leaning (but independent) voters just stay home on election day. These people aren't going to turn up at the polls for a Jeb Bush or a Marco Rubio. They would show up for Trump or some other populist candidate who has something to offer besides GOP establishment boilerplate, which is becoming increasingly like Democrat boilerplate.
The CBS/NYT poll shows Cruz/Huckabee/Paul/Kasich all tied at 4%. That’s some serious dope they are smoking.
see my post #222
I do not like this averaging different polling methodologies and different categories of subjects.
(ie adults vs registered voters vs registered republicans vs previous voters vs likely voters vs evangelical vs non-evangelical vs so on and so on)
We forget the media polls are for the public, all these candidates have PRIVATE INTERNAL poling which tells the truth and that is never public.
(ie McCain, Romney, GHWBush all knew they were going to lose long before election day)
Hate to tell you this, but I think Ben Carson is already married.
Remember the FNC poll the sunday before election day that had Kerry five points ahead of Bush.
But true
Long hair? Are you living in the 1970s? How about bald polished heads? How about women?
The barbershop scenario is made only to point out that polls cannot possibly be objective using landlines and phones.
When you work in a polling organization, you need to have a list of people to contact. To be considered ‘scientific’, the list must be representative of the population. To make it representative, you must include numbers in different age groups, different ethnicities, different economic strata, different education levels and so on and so on. This is called the sample plan.
The problem is if you the pollster use landlines or cell phones to contact your targeted sample, you lose the scientific validity of the sample because most people today hangup or never answer.
So polls today are no better than rallies and are actually worse than rallies.
The barbershop/beauty salon scenario avoids the above flaws but is uneconomic. Most everyone gets their hair cut or styled by another. Long-haired and bald men are a small segment that is not statistically represented to make a difference. If this was the 1970s, that might not be the case.
FNC and FBC interchangeable info babes were giddy when reporting this poll. They were exposing their bias.
Because of this:
Shows the huge crowds and what the MDSM does not show.
Trump: ..."Pan the d@mn cameras" See...they don't do it
Crowd boos the camera operators.
I like Trump but prefer Cruz ideologically
Carson is problematic and a pure race pick yet again
Though yes he is soft spoken and smart
People need to listen to what he says and has written
Hello, Establishment Paid Hack. You will be zotted quickly. Please let me know what your new screen name is, when you return.
Do you see anything wrong with a poll that shows Cruz/Huckabee/Paul/Kasich all tied at 4%?? That’s some serious dope they are smoking.
Many posters here believe that what the people want this year is a bulldog, like trump. Someone who will fight, fight, for us, and be a leader with a bacbone.
Two things:
People want someone who will fight for the PEOPLR, for the LITTLE guy. So when trump was about yelling about criminal illegals, and a wall, and making Mexico pay for it, and fighting for Kate’s Law to I mm prison Mexican murderers, people felt that way about him.
When he attacked mccain, well, folks were like, McCain is the enemy, anyway. But even then, there were warning signs, these warning signs increased with attacks on Walker, Carly, etc. There were warning voices here on FR. But they went unheeded, dismissed.
Second, even at his highest, trump was favored by a minority of Republican voters. True, it was an outsized share of a 17 candidate field, but trump seemed to assume, not necessarily correctly, that as the field narrowed, his plurality would grow into a majority, ignoring his relatively high negetives.
In the meanwhile, the people, the ordinary voter, noticed a change in trump’s words. trump largely abandoned fighting for people, and increasingly spent time fighting for himself, against Jeb, against Rubio m against Carson.
The folks predisposed to trump could easily let attacks slide on Jeb. He was, afterall, the enemy. Rubio. A little less so. But Carson? And now, against his religion??? The man who has been married three times, and says he’s never asked God’s forgiveness, because he never needed it???
And things started to crystallize for some voters. trump, in some ways, is just another one of THEM: politicians. Just another yelled and screamer, another partisan, looking out mostly for himself.
But why the turn toward Carson?
Because he is a conciliator. People are tired of t h e divisiveness of the last presifency. Everywhere they look, they see divide. By party, by race. By class. So, when trump heaps scorn on Carson, Carson says, I’m not going to be drawn into the mud. When asked about Sharpton, he draws a distinction betwend himself and Sharpton but is conciliatory. Whether true or not (and I don’t know whether it is true), right now, people see Carson, as a concilator, as a healer a unifier. And I think a percentage of folks want that right now. They want someone who is nice. Decent. Honest. Successful without stepping on others. It doesn’t hurt that he has such a marvelous story. From rags to tiches. From the ghetto to a premier neurosurgeon. Stupid trump’s attacks on his abilities as a doctor didn’t help. Rather, they rankled. People know! They have prior knowledge! Carson’s life is the subject of a best-selling autobiography. Long before this campaign, many people already knew about Carson and his life’s work dedicated to saving babies, his heroic deeds, his tireless work. And trump attacks him as an “OK doc???” As “low energy???” A man who would stand and perform for 20 hours at a time, performing the most delicate operations on babies??? Managing teams for A SINGLE OPERATION that numbered in the dozens??? Choreographing the movements and actions of EVERY MEMBER for 20 hours or more??? trump criticizes this man for lack of management experience, saying oh maybe he’s managed “a nurse or two???”
So, what does Carson do? He goes on a BOOK TOUR, encouraging people to read more of his books! Retelling his story. Indirectly showing trump to be a grand, self-serving liar, without ever saying a single negative word.
That is the appeal of Carson. That is why the candidacy of trump is losing its shine. I don’t k now if it will last. I’m a Cruz guy, myself. But I understand Carson’s current appeal. My wife said it in one word this morning. “Nice.”
Yeah
All them stupid and ignorant members of FreeRepubic.
What do they know?
I do. Again that is an example of people that showed up who were not sampled or who refused or were not available to answer a poll.
If one looks at a historical time chart of polls and their accuracy, the results look dismal. Similar to economists predicting 9 of the last 4 recessions. It’s very much a form of astrology.
Trump’s rallies, the composition of those rallies, the varied regions and settings of those rallies are the stronger indicator. They could fade, but Trump’s media people seem to be major leaguers and know how to refresh the message.
Ron Paul’s rallies, Howard Dean’s rallies, Bernie Sanders’ rallies and others all faded and were composed of cultish elements. Whereas Trump’s rallies are composed of people from all walks of life and they are far larger and enduring than those of others.
But they could fade and Trump has said so himself.
He touts the polls favoring himself because like any good saleman he gathers any positive to himself.
It will be interesting to see how his people react to the WAPO/NYT/etc. media that now know where the anti-Trump residents are. The first season’s results were pure data gathering. Now the demographics that put Trump 2nd or 3rd are known and the oversampling begins.
Just turned on FOX and they are ready for a party over this headline. What they do not report is that this is just over 500 people for a nation wide poll and a margin of 7 done by the open border NY Times and CBS.
you are joking right?
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