Posted on 10/26/2015 11:21:08 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The last five polls of Iowa, if you include that one conducted last week for Bobby Jindal’s Super PAC: Carson by eight; Carson by nine; Carson by eight; Carson tied with Trump; and now, from Monmouth, Carson by 14.
Which, do you suppose, is the outlier?
Compared to two months ago, Carson is up by 9 points and Rubio is up by 6 points. Trump has dropped by 5 points and Fiorina’s share of the vote has also decreased by 5 points. Carson’s support has gone up among all ideological groups. He now leads Trump by 9 points (31%-22%) among very conservative voters compared to a single point two months ago and by 21 points (39%-18%) among somewhat conservative voters compared to 2 points in August. He also has a 17 point (29%-12%) lead among moderate to liberal voters, which is a reversal since the prior poll when he trailed Trump by 9 points (17%-26%) among this group.
Carson maintains a 36% to 18% lead over Trump among evangelical Christian voters, which is somewhat larger than the 29% to 23% advantage he held two months ago. However, Carson also holds a 28% to 19% edge among non-evangelicals, reversing an 18% to 24% deficit in August. Carson’s 34% to 17% lead over Trump among women is similar to his 30% to 19% advantage two months ago. He now leads among men as well, 31% to 20%, which wipes out the 17% to 27% deficit he had to Trump in the prior poll.
Not only is Carson the first choice of a plurality of Republicans, he’s their second choice too at 19 percent. Trump is the second choice of just 12 percent of voters, trailing both Cruz and Rubio (who are tied at 14 percent). Not only has he slipped in the polls, in other words, but other candidates’ voters aren’t primed to stampede towards him as a fallback if Carson falters.
What’s knocked Trump down in Iowa? The Club for Growth is taking credit, claiming the $1 million it dropped on ads in the state attacking Trump as a phony conservative did the trick. Okay, but … why would those ads be working on moderate Republicans and non-evangelicals? Also, neither Trump nor Carson have seen wild changes in their favorable ratings. Carson’s still sky high at 84/7 while Trump is at 53/38 (versus 52/33 a month ago, a bit of deterioration) yet Carson’s gone from a 10-point deficit among men to an 11-point lead. Maybe his refusal to back down under media pressure on opposing a Muslim candidate for president and championing gun rights as an obstacle to tyranny convinced some Iowa Republicans that he, not Trump, is the real “anti-PC” candidate in the race. Or maybe Trump insulting Carson as “low energy” and sniffing around his religion alienated some voters — although you’d expect to see a steeper drop in Trump’s favorables if that were true. There’s no obvious reason from these numbers why some meaningful number of GOP voters in Iowa would suddenly decide they prefer Carson’s brand of outsiderism to Trump’s, but there’s also really no doubting after five polls that that’s happening. Could be it’s as simple as Iowans reverting to form. Carson is the sort of pious underdog whom Republican caucusgoers have preferred in the last two cycles. No one would be surprised if they went that way again, Trump’s best efforts to the contrary.
Speaking of which, a good point from MSNBC’s Benjy Sarlin:
@EsotericCD Carson looks too similar to past Iowa winners, much less fear in establishment he can spread to NH and beyond compared to Trump
— Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) October 26, 2015
Right, and that’s only half the equation. Carson’s not only potentially a Trump-killer in New Hampshire, he’s a Cruz-killer too. I’d be surprised if some establishmentarians in the donor class haven’t already quietly cut checks to his Super PACs to make sure he’ll have the money he needs to win that state. Cruz will be more dangerous in South Carolina if he’s coming off a win in Iowa, and South Carolina is where donor-class favorite Marco Rubio is supposed to shine. Trump doesn’t need Iowa as badly as Cruz does, although a humiliating loss there would hurt his image simply per the logic that Donald Trump is never supposed to lose at anything, particularly in humiliating fashion.
Which brings us to one of the mysteries of the campaign to date: Why isn’t the billionaire spending more of his own money on ads to take down the competition? Trump’s answer to that thus far has been that he’s worried about overexposure — how much more Trump can voters take when he’s on cable news 24/7? — and, it seems, a certain pride that he’s managed to build his lead without having to drop the sort of exorbitant sums that Jeb Bush’s PAC is prepared to spend to promote him. On some level, I suspect, he thinks he’s so charismatic and so practiced at the art of the insult that a paid ad couldn’t possibly be more effective in taking down one of his rivals than he himself is during a cable news hit. But that’s goofy. An ad that attacks Carson as dangerously inexperienced could obviously damage him more than Trump babbling about how sleepy he looks. And though it might surprise Trump to hear this, not every voter watches all of his interviews and televised rallies on cable news. (Believe it or not, some voters don’t watch much cable news at all.) That’s why candidates need ads: The frequent rotation across different networks reaches viewers who don’t watch “Hannity,” say. Trump may have begun to believe his own BS about changing the rules of politics, that he’s so singular a talent that he can build a winning movement without running ads or, er, even obtaining a voter file. If New Hampshire starts to get tight, I bet he’ll rethink that.
I dont believe this for a second
No sale.
You know, I saw polls that predicted a landslide for President Romney and before him, President Juan McLame.
/sarc
“Iowa is not a vote! It’s some sort of corn porn system where gas0h0lic addicts/whores stand in a tent or some such to ‘vote’ for the Pimp/candidate promising to continue to support their Gas0h0l $ addiction by keeping or increasing the gas0h0lic federally mandated % per gallon.”
How Pandering To Iowa’s Ethanol Lobby Hurts America (Ben Carson = Ethanol Pimp)
The Federalist ^ | 10/21/15 |
Posted on 10/24/2015, 6:57:28 AM by jimbo123
While a small group of corn farmers may benefit from the Renewable Fuel Standard, higher gas prices and less fuel-efficient gasoline hurt everyone.
Ten years ago this month, President George W. Bush signed the Renewable Fuel Standard into law, implementing regulations that require companies to blend specific amounts of renewable fuels into gasoline. No state benefits more from the RFS than Iowa, and with the Iowa caucuses six months away, presidential candidates are already pandering, flip flopping, or avoiding the issue altogether as they attempt to woo voters.
While Iowa farmers who grow corn specifically for biofuels have greatly benefited from the RFS, ethanol and other biofuels are overwhelmingly hurting the planet and people’s pocketbooks. This crop of presidential candidates needs to keep that in mind as they continue to canvass the Hawkeye State.
It’s easy to see why politicians pander to Iowans. The last two Republicans to win the Iowa caucus, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, both supported the RFS.
http://thefederalist.com/2015/10/21/how-pandering-to-iowas-ethanol-lobby-hurts-america/
I figure the polling in IA is legit.
But ultimately, we should ask Presidents Santorum and Huckabee how much IA really matters in the overall nomination process.
Reminds me of Running Man, when Arnold was really starting to win, they simply changed the graphics to show him being killed.
They sound desperate, with desperately growing lies.
Who are these people?
You kick the tires and it all crumbles like a house of cards.
What B.S.
I won’t say I don’t believe it, but I genuinely wonder why? What has Carson said that is so incredibly impressive? What has Trump said that is so awful?
Carson was in my city last week (Topeka, KS). I thought about going to see him...but discovered it was a book signing.
What the heck?
The MSM is straight trippin Boo...
“How Pandering To Iowa’s Ethanol Lobby Hurts America (Ben Carson = Ethanol Pimp)”
100%.
The lying lib RAT msm will print anything to bump Trump.
I tend to think that Carson's campaign is mostly about laying the groundwork for future book sales. And I've thought that for a year now, too.
I saw polls that showed Obama would win, yet there were numerous freepers who would post every day showing how all the polls were rigged and McCain and Romney would easily win.
Thankfully those Freepers turned out to be right
Oh wait..............
Besides sounding like he's just fixed with heroin?
This is NO WAY Carson is trumping trump in ANY of these polls, just like there is NO WAY America loves Hillary.
LOL!
I think Iowa has become a maverick voting state. Avoid the mainstream and obvious, go with the maverick.
Huckabee and Santorum last two opportunities? Come on.
They also went with zero in 2008. He was the maverick compared to Hillary, who won New Hampshire.
The polls were rigged to match the rigged election. Yes, I believe that.
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