Posted on 10/04/2015 4:53:41 AM PDT by sukhoi-30mki
In 2017, immediately defeating a surge of Chinese warplanes attacking Taiwan will require around 2,200 combat-ready U.S. fighter jets — a full two-thirds of all fighters in the American inventory. That’s the main conclusion of a new briefing paper from RAND, a California think tank.
RAND points out that the Pentagon has more and better fighters than China — and superior pilots, too. But over Taiwan, geography favors the People’s Liberation Army. “China does not need to catch up fully to the United States to challenge the U.S. ability to conduct effective military operations near the Chinese mainland.”
Historically, PLA air forces have not posed much threat to neighboring countries. In the past two decades, however, China has rapidly modernized its air power. Whereas in 1996 China had just taken delivery of its first batch of 24 fourth-generation fighters, it now operates more than 700. The United States, in the meantime, has added fifth-generation fighters to its inventory, and its fleet remains both more advanced and larger than China’s.
Balanced against the aggregate U.S. advantage, however, are geographic and situational factors: China would enjoy the advantages of proximity in most Asian conflict scenarios. It would be able to operate from far more bases, allowing it to bring more aircraft to bear in a conflict, and its vital assets would be both dispersed over much greater areas and hardened against attack. Moreover, the few U.S. air bases within close proximity would likely face Chinese missile attack, degrading their ability to support operations. RAND crunched the numbers are decided that, by 2017, the United States would need to deploy 30 wings of 75 fighters each to the western Pacific in order to defeat outright a Chinese aerial assault on Taiwan. That’s “unsustainable,” according to the think tank.
“The United States would have better prospects of prevailing in an attrition campaign designed to defeat a Chinese air offensive over time,” RAND asserts. Seven wings could shoot down half of China’s warplanes in a week. To achieve the same thing in three weeks would require just four wings.
But three weeks is a long time in an invasion scenario. By then the Chinese army would likely have overrun Taiwan, RAND notes.
If the battle were to take place in and around the Chinese/Taiwan mainlands...I believe it.
Taiwan only remains Taiwan as it is today because they refrain from speaking in ways that would piss off China.
My corp has a lab over in Taiwan. We do business in mainland China. I typically don’t pass up the chance to ask visiting Taiwanese employees during casual conversation at lunch or drinks about their views on Taiwanese independence.
Almost every single time the question elicits pretty strange responses. I’ve had almost all say, “We do not speak of such things”.
Why you ask? The Taiwanese are heavily infiltrated by communist Chinese officers. Even some of the workers that come to our campus here in America are likely Chinese...not Taiwanese. They may work for our company in Taiwan as Taiwanese workers, but be sure that from time to time there are communist Chinese looking to acquire technology.
Anyhow..drifted a bit, but to dovetail back in to the notion, Taiwan is still in one piece because they refrain from taking on China by remaining somewhat subservient to the mainland.
If war ever broke out between China/Taiwan...Taiwan would be a smoldering heap in a very short period of time.
IIRC, it took 100% of our air power to defeat Germany and Japan.
And then how long would it take us to rebuild the aircraft that we lost? And train new pilots, of course.
Taiwan needs nuclear weapons. Every nation who thinks they’re covered by America’s “nuclear umbrella” needs their own nuclear weapons. Obama has put the lie to America’s nuclear umbrella. We now live in a world of everybody for themselves.
It is not the current military balance which is worrying.
What is the (huge) problem is that China continues to be a very closed society, allowing no immigration except Chinese race, and yet we continue to ship more and more of America’s formerly massive manufacturing base there.
That is very very concerning. And nobody, in either party is saying America needs to be for America once again.
I will however. America needs to be for America once again.
Come to think of it, one guy is saying that, and that is exactly why I am supporting his candidacy:
Donald Trump is saying we need to return the focus to rebuilding our very own country.
He is 100% right.
America first.
I’ve long thought that mainland China will take Taiwan before 0bama is gone.
The reasons that now is the time to move is obvious, given who commands our armed forces and foreign policy.
The paper tigers in DC have shown the world they can and will renege on promises (as in Ukraine), so the long standing promise to defend Taiwan from an invasion now rings hollow.
And it doesn’t help that we depend on them to buy and hold our debt.
Not sure how they get them into Taiwan though. The Chinese government has infiltrated Taiwanese society to include the government.
Love the Gen. Blather thang. lol I like to think of myseff as Col. Igmo.
For instance. I cannot mention the name of my company for obvious reasons, but we had to set up a company inside China to relabel/assemble American tech hardware because the Chinese gubbamint doesn't allow American hardware into their country.....so, hence the front company.
Who in sam hell negotiated these trade deals? Their wonderful, their great...but really really stooopid to quote the Donald.
Seriously, Chinese export billions and billions to America and these commie b@st@rds put a kibosh on what we can sell in their country. Come on.
Barring a massive refit from the birds at Davis-Monthan AFB that would be dangerously low. Thanks Barack!
CC
Dang, we should ramp up. Hopefully the Chi-Coms will sell us the necessary electronics.
MacArthur was right.
And of course, the stupidity that is called free trade is funding the Chinese military, at the expense of ours.
The thing that allowed us to defeat both Japan and Germany was our manufacturing capacity. Where does that strength lie now? :(
bmp4L8R
If the chinks lose a thousand pilots, no big deal; they’ll just pump in a thousand more.
Even more than that would be the time required to train & qualify replacement pilots.
Sooner or later, this will be the rationale for building hordes of cheap, autonomous drones. Sure they’ll be destroyed by the score, but they will take an enemy ace with them.
It would take 2/3’s of our air force or one MIRV’d Trident missile.
Rather than take Taiwan militarily I think they’d rather just buy it from Clinton with a few bribes.
Bflr
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