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Donald Trump's wild claim: Unemployment is 42%
CNN Money ^ | September 28, 2015 | Heather Long

Posted on 09/28/2015 5:47:46 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

The official U.S. unemployment rate is 5.1% -- the lowest in seven years -- but Donald Trump calls that a "joke."

On Monday, he claimed he'd seen numbers that show America's real unemployment rate is as high as 42%.

How does he arrive at such a wild figure?

Trump appears to be looking at the number of American adults not working. Period.

Out of about 251 million American adults, roughly 102 million -- or 40.6% -- aren't working.

But, of course, there are a lot of reasons people don't work. They could be disabled, in college, at home raising kids or retired.

And you wouldn't include those groups in the unemployment rate, which tries to capture how many people are actively looking for work and can't find it....

(Excerpt) Read more at money.cnn.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Government; Politics/Elections; US: New York
KEYWORDS: 2016election; davidstockman; economy; election2016; employment; employmentrate; newyork; obamarecession; obamataxhikes; taxcuts; taxreform; trump; unemployment; unemploymentrate; unenjoyment
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To: C. Edmund Wright
the 42% is based on a misunderstanding of what labor participation rate means.
You being the expert on labor participation rates and all.
61 posted on 09/28/2015 10:36:34 PM PDT by lewislynn (Meghan Kelley...#sand--Rosie, the Don was right-- Hillary, lipstick on a pig)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Heather Long, Rhodes Scholar - CNN Money

62 posted on 09/28/2015 10:41:48 PM PDT by kcvl
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To: lewislynn

Doesn’t take an expert actually.

The base figure for the population includes all intentionally retired people, a massive population. The labor participation rate is never more than 70% or so. By design. Now it’s abysmal now - and it means the real unemployment figure is something like 12-15% - but not 42.


63 posted on 09/29/2015 3:50:55 AM PDT by C. Edmund Wright (WTF? How Karl Rove and the Establishment Lost...Again)
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To: 4rcane
If labor participation rate is 60%. Why isn’t unemployment rate 40%

Because that would mean children in high school, full time students in college, anyone who is retired, people who don't work by choice like stay-at-home moms, and people who are medically incapable of working are all unemployed. Would you agree with that?

64 posted on 09/29/2015 3:54:54 AM PDT by DoodleDawg
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To: entropy12
It matters little WHY some one is not working at a job. What does matter is that he/she must be supported by tax dollars from those who do bother to drag their azz to work every day. -

Lots of retired people are paying their own way.

65 posted on 09/29/2015 4:11:32 AM PDT by semimojo
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To: C. Edmund Wright
...the real unemployment figure is something like 12-15% - but not 42...

Sounds like CNN is sort of quoting Trump remembering something about payrolls as a percentage of the total civilian non-institutional population--

--which shows a % about where Trump's quoted by the always truthful CNN.  In other words, things are as bad now as they were when Reagan was president.  imho the number says more about today's economy than the headline unemployment, but we'll need to lose the "real-unemployment" name and perhaps call it the "not-employment rate".

66 posted on 09/29/2015 4:27:09 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

Great minds think alike! I’ve said for years that the over cooked U3 and U6 numbers are just a playground for deception. It should be simple....say there are 95 million adults NOT working....that’s 40%.....and for example 27% are retired - so that’s 13% who are not working who SHOULD be working.


67 posted on 09/29/2015 4:58:40 AM PDT by C. Edmund Wright (WTF? How Karl Rove and the Establishment Lost...Again)
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bkmk


68 posted on 09/29/2015 5:54:36 AM PDT by Faith65 (Isaiah 40:31)
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To: C. Edmund Wright

When you add in the illegals, can we see your super math skills then?


69 posted on 09/29/2015 6:13:55 AM PDT by Boardwalk
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To: McGruff

I think his point is that the unemployment numbers don’t include those who ......Graduated college, high school, the Armed Forces and tech school in the last seven years and couldn’t find a job. My take has been the UE rate is 30-35% for sure, in the last seven years, and possibly 40-43% now.


70 posted on 09/29/2015 6:16:11 AM PDT by Safetgiver ( Islam makes barbarism look genteel.)
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To: ForYourChildren

This might get people to start thinking about how the official unemployment number is calculated...Using the formula that WAS used during the Bush years (4.1%) it is possible today’s figure is over 40%.


71 posted on 09/29/2015 6:19:32 AM PDT by Safetgiver ( Islam makes barbarism look genteel.)
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To: Boardwalk
When you add in the illegals, can we see your super math skills then?

It's pretty pathetic that my very basic mathematical extrapolations are considered "super" - because I certainly never said they were anything other than basic common sense and an understanding of the the LFPR is. Labor Participation is a very basic simply formula, unlike the U3 and U6. Sorry if it's over your head. And confidence envy is not attractive.

72 posted on 09/29/2015 6:25:24 AM PDT by C. Edmund Wright (WTF? How Karl Rove and the Establishment Lost...Again)
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To: Safetgiver

40 percent unemployment, 40 million illegals, and printing money like there is no tomorrow!


73 posted on 09/29/2015 6:25:34 AM PDT by Boardwalk
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To: Boardwalk; Servant of the Cross; Lakeshark; xzins; CatherineofAragon
....can we see your super math skills then?

Double standard - someone else ALWAYS starts the snark PING.

74 posted on 09/29/2015 6:38:03 AM PDT by C. Edmund Wright (WTF? How Karl Rove and the Establishment Lost...Again)
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To: Boardwalk

somewhere between 25 and 30 per cent are unemployed by design...retirees, students, etc. Should we count those?


75 posted on 09/29/2015 6:39:01 AM PDT by C. Edmund Wright (WTF? How Karl Rove and the Establishment Lost...Again)
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To: C. Edmund Wright

I have a personal snark against c Edmund as he started it with me first many Trump threads ago. Get your facts at least half straight.


76 posted on 09/29/2015 6:44:05 AM PDT by Boardwalk
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To: C. Edmund Wright

If the labor force participation rate is 62%, then there is a reasonable argument that can be made for a 38% unemployment rate. If one considers that the ‘labor force’ has arbitrary age limits placed on it by the government (something like 16-65), then it’s fair easy to add another 4% to that 38%.

And just because someone doesn’t want to work, and loves sucking off the public teat, that doesn’t make that person NOT unemployed. He is terribly, deceitfully unemployed.


77 posted on 09/29/2015 6:47:36 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True Supporters of our Troops PRAY for their Victory!)
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To: Boardwalk

who are you? I’ve no memory of your banal screen name.


78 posted on 09/29/2015 6:48:02 AM PDT by C. Edmund Wright (WTF? How Karl Rove and the Establishment Lost...Again)
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To: C. Edmund Wright

OK c stands for chicken Wright. I was the first one on your secret trumpbot list. You don’t retain much, obviously. When will you release the full list?


79 posted on 09/29/2015 6:51:40 AM PDT by Boardwalk
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To: xzins

Let me repeat....there are something like 25% who DO NOT WANT to work NOR NEED to work. The labor participation rate even in boom times is about 70%, not 100%.

There is no case to make that its 38-42%. Are there a few points here and there for the over 65 crowd? Perhaps, but again, 70% is full labor participation, not 100%. Having said that, at 62-63, that means there’s another legit 7-8% that should be added to the BS 5% mark....putting legit UE (U3) at 12-13%. God knows what the U6 would be...certainly over 20.


80 posted on 09/29/2015 6:51:54 AM PDT by C. Edmund Wright (WTF? How Karl Rove and the Establishment Lost...Again)
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