Posted on 09/28/2015 11:51:21 AM PDT by usafa92
While real estate mogul Donald Trump continues to lead the Republican field, several rivals are beginning to find footholds, the new poll shows. Trump leads with 30 percent of the vote, ahead of 15 percent for retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and 10 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.
(Excerpt) Read more at morningconsult.com ...
My point is that because they polled only in July and then last week, the difference between the two polls doesn't tell you anything about the trend now. Yes, he is up 3 points over where he was in July, but there is no way to tell what has happened in between. Maybe he was up 10 points in August, then lost 7 points of that gain. Maybe he was flat until last week, then spiked up 3 points last week. The point is, with no comparable polls between July and last week, it's hard to tell what the current trend is.
That is one of the reasons that early polling--especially early state-by-state polling--does not tell you all that much. Much of the value of polling comes in the aggregation of polls, to tell trends, etc., and early polling (and, again, especially early state polling) is relatively sparse.
Yeah, no kidding. Besides Karl Rove, W and his parents, who else supports Jeb.
Oh, Cheap Labor Express profiteers.
And when it gets closer to early state primaries the state polls have much more meaning than the manipulated national polls that the silly talking heads go gaga over. Trump leads in all early state caucuses and primaries; FL, SC, IA, and NH. I don't see that changing much.
I saw this tweet report for you edification. Chucky T. may have swallowed his tongue.
"Chuck Todd looked like you ran over his dog when they showed the poll of 71% of the MSNBC viewers approving of Trump's tax plan. @NolteNC"
Even Liberals love getting more money in there pockets.
There's also a small contingent of Republicans who still think that W. was the greatest thing since sliced bread, for whom the Bush brand name is an asset rather than a liability. If "immigration reform," TARP, and No Child Left Behind couldn't change these people's minds, nothing will.
See ya at the bill signing!!
That sure was a classic.
Jebito now trying to finish the job, and the rest of those pesky American workers.
Yep I think Trump’s tax plan is going to translate to higher poll numbers in the next week or two. Maybe a lot higher.
It will for sure.
That's where Trump's ceiling is coming from. I thought he had turned around his favorable ratings as of a month ago, but I wonder if they've dipped back down again. I want to find a poll that's tracking that.
The polling industry is in a state of flux. Pollsters who conduct surveys for partisan clients and for media organizations are struggling to figure out how to understand the American electorate, especially at a moment when more of us are eschewing landline phones in favor of cell phones.
At Morning Consult, we’re embracing a new way of contacting voters, one that we think gives us the ability to survey voters and model the electorate in a timely, accurate manner. And we want to be transparent about that process. To that end, we offer answers to these frequently asked questions about how we conduct our polls:
Morning Consult regularly runs surveys containing both Morning Consult and client content. When we have room for additional questions (which happens in almost every poll we run), our editorial and polling teams independently write questions. Those questions are never vetted or approved by any clients. The data produced from questions that the Morning Consult editorial and polling teams write is proprietary to Morning Consult.
In many polls, especially statewide surveys, we use both live telephone interviews conducted using random digit dialing (RDD) and online interviews using several well-known, well-respected national vendors to provide a broad cross-section of registered voters across the country. For our weekly 2,000 person national polls, we use several national online vendors to recruit a broad cross-section of Americans.
In every story based on Morning Consult polling, we will disclose how the poll was conducted, whether by phone, online or a mix of both.
Nope, our telephone interviews use live callers and are conducted using random digit dialing (RDD).
No, but we make up for those we miss on the phone with our online surveys. Here’s how it works: The landline telephone interviews are used to target landline only, landline mostly and mixed landline/cell individuals, while the online interviews are used to target cell only, cell mostly and mixed landline/cell individuals. We use the distribution of landline and online interviews to approximate the true proportion of cell-phone only, mixed cell and landline, and landline-only individuals based on estimates from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).
The internet component of our polls are based on opt-in panels compiled by several large national firms. That gives us access to millions of potential respondents about whom we know a lot — where they live, their gender, their educational attainment and ethnicity, things like that. That means we can refine our panels to make them representative of the country at large, which helps us build more accurate samples.
For our large, weekly national polls, we include a few additional variables for weighting such as educational attainment and region. These population figures also come from the 2012 Current Population Survey. For our mixed methodology landline and online poll, we weight survey results based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity to population parameters from the 2012 Current Population Survey.
Yes. Online polling is increasingly common among political professionals. In just the last few years, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the National Republican Congressional Committee, the National Republican Senatorial Committee and other prominent groups have used online polling to supplement their data from elsewhere. And other respected media outlets like The Economist, The New York Times and CBS have partnered with YouGov to conduct their own online polls.
We’re hardly the first, or the only, group conducting these types of polls.
“I think they have lists of pre-screened poll participants in their databases and are able to pull a scientific sample online from known participants. In these days, they might be more able to obtain a sufficient number of responses from a balanced demographic than firms still relying on telephone contact.”
For two presidential campaigns, Bush II’s, I was on two pre-screened polling companies’s lists.
I knew that I would be called and what the questions were before the polling calls. They called ahead re the date and time and the questions.
We have a couple of younger relatives without landlines, and they are contacted via their cell phones by legit pollsters.
“As I was telling another poster, it looks like the D.U. sleepers are now going to try to earn their money.
This anti-Trump nonsense is getting tedious.
Lies, misinformation, ignoring the truth of what Trump has been proposing, it’s just disinformation and seeking to destroy Trump’s chances.
Those folks should go over the D.U. and roll in the horse stuff with them.”
Then, they wouldn’t get paid when they posted what their buddies do on DU!
Evidently. It does make you wonder.
I like to give folks the benefit of the doubt, but it’s getting to the point there is not doubt.
Thanks Grandpa Dave.
And also with the information in post #90, it sounds like firms are adapting to the internet and cell phones and using a mix of ways to poll their respondents.
I was once called by Pew Research and answered pre-screening questions, but I guess I didn't fit the needed demographic because I wasn't called to participate in any polls.
As far as Trump’s “face” comment, I doubt very much that what he meant to imply was that she was “ugly”. She’s not particularly ugly. But that’s the righteous spin both she and the Trump-haters wanted to put on it, for obvious reasons. What I believe he meant was that her demeanor was humorless, stern, not ready for prime time. He’s right about that,and I think she and/or her advisors have already sought to correct that by having her appear with Jimmy Fallon, singing a silly nonsense song. Even if Trump had meant it the other way, he wouldn’t have lost any appreciable support because of it.
As far as Trump’s “face” comment, I doubt very much that what he meant to imply was that she was “ugly”. She’s not particularly ugly. But that’s the righteous spin both she and the Trump-haters wanted to put on it, for obvious reasons. What I believe he meant was that her demeanor was humorless, stern, not ready for prime time. He’s right about that,and I think she and/or her advisors have already sought to correct that by having her appear with Jimmy Fallon, singing a silly nonsense song. Even if Trump had meant it the other way, he wouldn’t have lost any appreciable support because of it.
We won’t see this poll in the MSM. It doesn’t fit their agenda. They want to spread the word that Trump is losing support.
“I was once called by Pew Research and answered pre-screening questions, but I guess I didn’t fit the needed demographic because I wasn’t called to participate in any polls.”
BOL, I took an early retirement in the mid 1990’s, and I didn’t work for a year.
Between 1-4 pm, I would get calls from pollsters looking for liberals who were at home instead of working.
I learned quickly to go to the chase when one of them called. I told them up front that I was a Republican and voted Republican. Most of them said goodbye including the Pew research clowns.
My open approach got me on the list as a republican with two polling firms.
The rest stopped calling.
THAT's funny! Took my 5 seconds to figure out which one is which.
Only thing is that I'd add "The Socialized Medicine" guy to that list.
Hank
Carly plays the game with the big boys very well, she is always in control of her emotions, always looking at the angles and always ready with the proper fact or sound byte to meet the need at the moment. She is precise and succinct.
I'm not counting Carson out, nor Cruz. I hope Marco and Jeb fold their tents and slip away into the night. They're cut from the same cloth. The others who're polling way down and take the other stage for the debates need to go soon, too. Perry and Walker had the right idea.
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