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Trump: Unemployment Rate As High As 40%
Real Clear Politics ^

Posted on 09/28/2015 11:05:48 AM PDT by TigerClaws

At Trump Tower, only a few blocks away from the meeting of world leaders at the United Nations, GOP presidential frontrunner Donald Trump announced his new plan to reform the U.S. tax code. After the main announcement, he took questions from the press.

On how his plan would address income inequality:

TRUMP: In terms of income inequality, we're going to create a lot of jobs. You know, right now we have a false [unemployment rate] 5.4%, 5.3%, 5.6%, every month it is different. It is such a phony number. Because when people look and look and look and then they give up looking for a job, they're taken off the rolls so the number isn't reflective.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: New York
KEYWORDS: 2016election; election2016; employmentrate; newyork; obamarecession; obamataxhikes; taxcuts; taxreform; trump; unemployment; unemploymentrate; unenjoyment
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To: TigerClaws

Too many of the companies I know now have their jobs filled by contractor and freelancer gigs—almost all people who would prefer to be classified as employees.


61 posted on 09/28/2015 1:01:44 PM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: DoodleDawg
"Until you factor those in then how can Trump or you or anyone say the unemployment rate is 40%? "

Is he speaking for the nation as a whole, or a certain demographic in a specific state/county/city ? I've read headlines here at FR which allude to similar numbers.

That's one of the problems with Trump speak and the "hurricane of words" referenced in the 60 minutes interview. He'll toss out a perfectly legitimate factoid but it may not be in correct context.

62 posted on 09/28/2015 1:09:52 PM PDT by moehoward
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To: Safetgiver

According to the feds we are actually approaching full employment. If that’s true, why do my acquaintences and I all know the only people that don’t have jobs?


63 posted on 09/28/2015 1:10:36 PM PDT by pfflier
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To: zek157
Therefore, the calculation of unemployment by this measure is 42.9 percent.

So by that measure 10 year old middle school students are unemployed? Eighty-year-old retirees are unemployed? Stay-at-home moms are unemployed? People medically incapable of working are unemployed? Because the only way you can come up with at 210 million adult figure is to reduce the definition of adult to well below 16. And the only way you can calculate that unemployment rate is to include the people I mentioned.

64 posted on 09/28/2015 1:29:21 PM PDT by DoodleDawg
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To: itsahoot

“...and wallah, you have...”

I think the word you’re looking for is “voila!”


65 posted on 09/28/2015 1:53:42 PM PDT by PLMerite ("The issue is never the issue. The issue is the Revolution.")
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To: TexasCajun

I don’t know what the real rate of unemployment is - I’m not sure anyone really knows, but, I do know that here in Ohio, several friends and family members have recently been employed - however, most are part-time jobs. This, is due probably to Obamacare guidelines. However, they are working and Ohio is doing rather well in the jobs market. Okay - John Kasich is our governor, so there’s that. (I’m not a supporter of Kasich for president - just saying).


66 posted on 09/28/2015 2:01:16 PM PDT by Catsrus ( I callz 'em as I seez 'em.)
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To: TigerClaws
One commentator said Trump will be attacked on this,

which is how the LSM/Establishment tells the LIVs what to get outraged about....yawn...

67 posted on 09/28/2015 2:04:55 PM PDT by uncitizen (Make America Great Again!)
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To: DoodleDawg

“I think it’s Trump that is cooking the books on this one.”

Okay, so what do *you* think the real unemployment rate is, the 5.whatever% figure the gov’t is pushing or something else?


68 posted on 09/28/2015 2:08:03 PM PDT by PLMerite ("The issue is never the issue. The issue is the Revolution.")
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To: TigerClaws

“I had some lib tell me last week we have a great economy.”

Was he actually stupid enough to believe it?


69 posted on 09/28/2015 2:21:35 PM PDT by RipSawyer (Racism is racism, regardless of the race of the racist.)
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To: PLMerite
Okay, so what do *you* think the real unemployment rate is, the 5.whatever% figure the gov’t is pushing or something else?

I think it's something else. Especially when you take into account the under-employed and those who have to work part time even though they want to work full time I think it's considerably north of 5%. But to say it's 35% or 40% makes no sense at all.

70 posted on 09/28/2015 3:35:49 PM PDT by DoodleDawg
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To: TigerClaws

Exactly!

Thankfully we have a Candidate that ADMITS the truth.

I’m sick of all the lies in the media.


71 posted on 09/28/2015 3:37:55 PM PDT by Enlightened1
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To: Sacajaweau
"he’s absolutely right. The figures are phony. We all know plenty of folks who left the workforce and never went back."

Or...
* Sold their business because Obamacare would have killed them anyway and the downturn was too much to take so the sold to a competitor.
* And all the folks that went on disability as Obama loosened those reg's up
* And all the folks that went on for 99 weeks, that got Obama-phones and went on food-stamps etc etc and were never the type to do it because they had lost hope. Which is just what Obingo wanted...

72 posted on 09/28/2015 3:42:29 PM PDT by taildragger (It's Cruz & Walker. Anything else is a Yugo with Racing Stripes....)
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To: TigerClaws
WRONG.
It counts those 20 and older, not kids.


Your link itself mentions 16 and older in the first section, then 20 and older in the second. And why would they cut the numbers at 20? 16 is the generally accepted age to start working. You leave high school at 18. Your link is to an article from some website. If you go to the link I provided in 37, it's straight from BLS, where I don't even see a '20 and above' number used:

The survey excludes people living in institutions (for example, a correctional institution or a residential nursing or mental health care facility) and those on active duty in the Armed Forces. The survey is designed so that each person age 16 and over (there is no upper age limit) is counted and classified in only one group. The sum of the employed and the unemployed constitutes the civilian labor force. People not in the labor force combined with those in the civilian labor force constitute the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years and over.
73 posted on 09/28/2015 3:54:02 PM PDT by Svartalfiar
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To: Aut Pax Aut Bellum
If I look at a jobs listing, the government considers me to be “employed”!

No, you're considered unemployed. But, if you already have a 5hr/week part time job, the survey ignores your job search and consideres you employed.

Either way, you are considered as in the labor force.
74 posted on 09/28/2015 3:56:23 PM PDT by Svartalfiar
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To: DoodleDawg
So by that measure 10 year old middle school students are unemployed? Eighty-year-old retirees are unemployed? Stay-at-home moms are unemployed? People medically incapable of working are unemployed? Because the only way you can come up with at 210 million adult figure is to reduce the definition of adult to well below 16. And the only way you can calculate that unemployment rate is to include the people I mentioned.

No, no, maybe, maybe. And how are you crunching that number? there are about 320Mil US citizens. Quick Google search shows about 65-70Mil to be under 16. so that gives us 250Mil. there's maybe 30Mil or so of college age. BUT! anyone who is in college or high school, and has a part time job is considered employed, and not all of those people at that age are even in college. So maybe 5Mil just-students? So to get to your number, we have 45 or 50Mil retires/stay-at-home moms. I haven't seen too many moms who don't hold at least some kind of job on the side, or helping with the family-owned business. As for retirees, they aren't considered unemployed unless they are looking for a job. They're considered 'not in the labor force'.
75 posted on 09/28/2015 4:06:33 PM PDT by Svartalfiar
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To: PLMerite
I think the word you’re looking for is “voila!”

Gads, I think you have it.

76 posted on 09/28/2015 5:03:39 PM PDT by itsahoot (55 years a republican-Now Independent. Will write in Sarah Palin, no matter who runs. RIH-GOP)
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To: PLMerite
I think the word you’re looking for is “voila!”

I'm more entertained by "viola." Well, I've heard talking heads pronounce it "VOY-la" before, and that was fun, too.

77 posted on 09/28/2015 5:06:54 PM PDT by RegulatorCountry
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To: RegulatorCountry

“I’m more entertained by “viola.” “

Yeah, I used to think that’s what it was when I saw it written. I couldn’t understand why they were talking about a stringed instrument like that.


78 posted on 09/28/2015 6:47:13 PM PDT by PLMerite ("The issue is never the issue. The issue is the Revolution.")
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To: DoodleDawg; kabar
See kabar's post -- if you have a further specific question, he probably has the data or can get it!

(Thanks, kabar!!!)

Anecdotally, the situation I see around me, in terms of people not working, is really lousy. Worse yet is (as I see it) a BIG problem with too many people working, but not working to their ability / talents. It's almost as bad as what I saw in the Philippines: College grads, often with degrees in "good" fields (not fluff like art or Radio-TV), and others with GOOD resumes / backgrounds, manning the checkouts in the stores, etc. It's no wonder so many look for employment even in Muslim countries, and scary to think we are heading that way.

I suspect that some of the middle class are not doing poorly, but that major portions are barely holding their own, or sinking, economically (not even counting ObamaCare premiums, constantly rising local and state taxes, and so on.) Who can afford to work their way through college (or if parents, send their kids to college) without financial aid? Who can afford an average cost new car?

It's important to remember that even a slight oversupply of almost anything can really drive the "cost" down, and we have more than a slight oversupply of labor in many employment arenas.

Maybe ol' kabar has some charts that would illustrate the subject of the "plight" of the middle class, especially in certain job type areas, "by the numbers"?

79 posted on 09/28/2015 9:33:47 PM PDT by Paul R.
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To: DoodleDawg

Actually, Stockman’s analysis makes perfect sense IF one has comparable numbers to go by, for at least the last several decades. Ie., by Stockman’s method, maybe 20% “unemployment” is normal. Context is everything, in this case.

Maybe someone can find or create a chart...


80 posted on 09/28/2015 10:00:05 PM PDT by Paul R.
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