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A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
Fivethirtyeight ^ | 8/31/2015 | Nate Silver

Posted on 08/31/2015 1:58:17 PM PDT by rickyrikardo

One question we’ve asked about Donald Trump’s campaign is what would happen if another candidate were to get a surge of media coverage, throwing a wrench in the works of Trump’s perpetual attention machine. Based on the latest polls, we may soon get the best test of this question since Trump entered the race.

The potential surger is Ben Carson, the much-awarded neurosurgeon who is running for political office for the first time. Carson is near the top of the Republican field in two new polls of Iowa. A Monmouth University poll has Carson with 23 percent of the vote and tied for the lead with Trump, while the Des Moines Register’s poll has Carson in second place, with 18 percent of the vote to Trump’s 23 percent. Carson has also been gaining ground in national polls and is in second place behind Trump, according to Huffington Post Pollster’s averaging method.

Carson’s gains in the polls have come organically — in fact, he’s been receiving remarkably little media attention. From June 28 through Aug. 20, Carson received only 0.9 percent of the news coverage of the top 161 Republican candidates, based on the number of Google News “hits” he received. That puts him at 14th in the field. Trump has received about 60 times more media coverage than Carson.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2016election; 2ndamendment; carson; news; trump
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To: longtermmemmory

That is not enough money to compete. He needs to raise at least $50 or $60 Million right no to stay in the race for the early primaries.

This may be a small surge but Carson still needs major money to compete.


81 posted on 08/31/2015 3:41:22 PM PDT by Captain Peter Blood
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To: The Sons of Liberty
I like Carson and what he says...

But when asked whether people should be allowed to own "semi-automatic weapons,(by Glenn Beck)" the doctor replied: "It depends on where you live. I think if you live in the midst of a lot of people, and I'm afraid that that semi-automatic weapon is going to fall into the hands of a crazy person, I would rather you not have it," Carson elaborated. However, if you live "out in the country somewhere by yourself" and want to own a semi-automatic weapon, he added, "I've no problem with that."

Dude's channeling Jim Crow. He's a dangerous fraud.

82 posted on 08/31/2015 3:42:45 PM PDT by Stentor ("The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity.")
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To: Sacajaweau

Keep in mind that other than jet fuel Trump has not spent much money. If a number of these candidates cannot raise any serious money to stay in the race a number of them will be out by the end of September.


83 posted on 08/31/2015 3:43:20 PM PDT by Captain Peter Blood
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To: rickyrikardo

I guess we’ll all have to take our vaccines... with a side of formaldehyde and mercury.


84 posted on 08/31/2015 3:43:26 PM PDT by proust
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To: LS

Second place in the polls doesn’t make you a VP choice. He’s a doctor through and through...not a Businessman...a CEO....not a Leader....and politics is about leadership and business.


85 posted on 08/31/2015 3:43:54 PM PDT by Sacajaweau
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To: erkelly

Right....a little business in a little box.


86 posted on 08/31/2015 3:45:07 PM PDT by Sacajaweau
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To: Original Lurker
Carson IS a gun grabber. He IS a GUN GRABBER..

Not even close. Carson has never said that the government should take away anyone's guns, or prevent anyone from buying a gun (excepting felons and the mentally ill). He is even opposed to any kind of registration.

He DID express an opinion on whether people in urban areas should keep semi-automatic weapons. That concern was over such weapons being stolen and used in crimes. He never advocated that you shouldn't be ALLOWED to own them - just that he preferred they not be available in urban environments. And I think even that sentiment is probably due to conflating automatic and semi-automatic weapons...

Since Trump advocated for the assault weapons ban and longer waiting periods in the past, anyone supporting Trump should have no problems with Carson's record on the 2nd Amendment.

87 posted on 08/31/2015 3:45:32 PM PDT by CA Conservative (Texan by birth, Californian by circumstance)
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To: All

Filing Reveals Details of Ben Carson’s Campaign Fundraising, Spending

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3311999/posts


88 posted on 08/31/2015 3:45:47 PM PDT by proust
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To: Buckeye McFrog

We need a thumb up “LIKE” button. You’d get a hit from me!


89 posted on 08/31/2015 3:46:59 PM PDT by nfldgirl
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To: CA Conservative

Only Prob is Trump said it 15 years ago, and Carson’s anti-gun rhetoric was more recent.


90 posted on 08/31/2015 3:47:00 PM PDT by proust
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To: erkelly

Doctors doctor, the hospital staff does the business end.


91 posted on 08/31/2015 3:48:18 PM PDT by g.orwell
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To: SamAdams76

I doubt it about Carly. She is a McCain shill.She worked in his campaign.


92 posted on 08/31/2015 3:48:44 PM PDT by dforest
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To: proust

Who the Hell is Ben Carson? Has he been running? For what? I thought he was looking for Surgeon General?


93 posted on 08/31/2015 3:49:53 PM PDT by Safetgiver ( Islam makes barbarism look genteel.)
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To: Buckeye McFrog

“Republican presidential candidates Ben Carson and Donald Trump were criticized by pro-life activists this week after they waffled on their positions regarding abortion, research on aborted baby body parts and funding Planned Parenthood.

After Carson indicated support for the abortion drug RU-486 in the case of rape or incest, Cavuto asked Carson, “At the point of conception do you see that as life Doctor?”

“Certainly once the heart starts beating, certainly at that point,” replied Carson.”

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3324910/posts


94 posted on 08/31/2015 3:51:00 PM PDT by trisham (Zen is not easy. It takes effort to attain nothingness. And then what do you have? Bupkis.)
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To: longtermmemmory
Carson fails on the second amendment civil rights issue.

If Carson fails on that issue, then so does Trump. Trump has advocated for much more liberal positions on guns than Carson ever did. Both have made later statements that changed or clarified their previous positions.

95 posted on 08/31/2015 3:52:15 PM PDT by CA Conservative (Texan by birth, Californian by circumstance)
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To: Safetgiver

carson has no executive experience, sitting on a BOD is mostly a no show job.

You don’t run anything, your name is on a letterhead.

Trump has an international company, jobs in lots of foreign places. Trump has run bigger business than most states budgets.


96 posted on 08/31/2015 3:54:36 PM PDT by Zenjitsuman
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To: skeeter

The media is pushing Carson now. They’ve really puffed him up in the last few days. That ought to clue everyone in. Destroy Trump with Carson, and Carson is easily rolled over later by Jeb and Co.

All the news is coordinated by the powers that be:

https://youtu.be/PStpvviPgxk

Its like living in a Soviet bloc country.


97 posted on 08/31/2015 3:55:09 PM PDT by ballearthout
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To: rickyrikardo

Carson is not packing 30,000 into stadiums. Trump is not being challenged. This is one poll. In every other poll Trump is leading by a wide margin.


98 posted on 08/31/2015 3:59:13 PM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose o f a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: proust
Only Prob is Trump said it 15 years ago, and Carson’s anti-gun rhetoric was more recent.

Okay, let's run with that. Carson made some referrals to some women with babies that had severe genetic deformities to another doctor who would do abortions back in the early 90's. Trump was pro-abortion until about 2011. So we should consider Trump to still be pro-abortion because he didn't change until then?

Carson clarified the statement that everyone jumped on about semi-automatic weapons, but no one wants to give that any credence, for some reason.

"However, on Monday, Carson told TheBlaze he does not believe in limits on semi-automatic weapons or that gun control is a local option.

“Totally not,” Carson said Monday. “What I was trying to get across is that the place where dangerous weapons are most likely to fall into the hands of crazies are crowded places. They are not likely to happen in some remote place. But in no way do I think we should restrict the rights, particularly the rights of law abiding citizens to have guns.”"

99 posted on 08/31/2015 3:59:40 PM PDT by CA Conservative (Texan by birth, Californian by circumstance)
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To: Georgia Girl 2

Even more importantly than being one poll, it’s one *Iowa* poll.


100 posted on 08/31/2015 4:02:41 PM PDT by I Hired Craig Livingstone (DT16. Deal with it.)
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