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A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
Fivethirtyeight ^ | 8/31/2015 | Nate Silver

Posted on 08/31/2015 1:58:17 PM PDT by rickyrikardo

One question we’ve asked about Donald Trump’s campaign is what would happen if another candidate were to get a surge of media coverage, throwing a wrench in the works of Trump’s perpetual attention machine. Based on the latest polls, we may soon get the best test of this question since Trump entered the race.

The potential surger is Ben Carson, the much-awarded neurosurgeon who is running for political office for the first time. Carson is near the top of the Republican field in two new polls of Iowa. A Monmouth University poll has Carson with 23 percent of the vote and tied for the lead with Trump, while the Des Moines Register’s poll has Carson in second place, with 18 percent of the vote to Trump’s 23 percent. Carson has also been gaining ground in national polls and is in second place behind Trump, according to Huffington Post Pollster’s averaging method.

Carson’s gains in the polls have come organically — in fact, he’s been receiving remarkably little media attention. From June 28 through Aug. 20, Carson received only 0.9 percent of the news coverage of the top 161 Republican candidates, based on the number of Google News “hits” he received. That puts him at 14th in the field. Trump has received about 60 times more media coverage than Carson.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2016election; 2ndamendment; carson; news; trump
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To: detective

And if Trump is critical of Carson, they will whip out the race card so fast it will be on fire.


21 posted on 08/31/2015 2:07:50 PM PDT by joshua c (Please dont feed the liberals)
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To: rickyrikardo

Not really.

Trump will just pour in money and people in the end. Polls for Iowa are not polling for a primary, and most people are not going to be in a caucus. So they are pretty useless for much of anything.

Carson is just the “generic candidate” safe choice like Scott Walker was for the people that aren’t ok with supporting Trump.

Neither are going after each other, so they will stay cool.


22 posted on 08/31/2015 2:08:02 PM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: Hostage

Exactly what I believe too!!!!!


23 posted on 08/31/2015 2:08:38 PM PDT by Guenevere (If the foundations are destroyed, what can the righteous do....)
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To: rickyrikardo

The rich elites are trying to separate the religious right from Trump.

I think they are faking the polls.


24 posted on 08/31/2015 2:09:41 PM PDT by donna (Pray for Revival.)
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To: Hostage

Bingo!


25 posted on 08/31/2015 2:10:10 PM PDT by Jane Long ("And when thou saidst, Seek ye my face; my heart said unto thee, Thy face, LORD, will I seek")
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To: glenduh
Personally, I think the media is setting Trump & his supporters up. The scarlet R has been such a potent method for suppressing dissent I can't see them not employing it at some point during the primaries (they've tried to alledge hispanic racism but that appears to have not worked very well).

Carson's candidacy provides the opportunity and the stakes for the establishment are too high.

26 posted on 08/31/2015 2:11:11 PM PDT by skeeter
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To: rickyrikardo

Carson IS a gun grabber. He IS a GUN GRABBER..
Being a gun grabbers exemplifies a VERY FUNDAMENTAL lack of the very BASICS of the US constitution.

I think it’s very well time to move beyond race-based politics.

Good man, yeah. Presidential?, fnck no!!!


27 posted on 08/31/2015 2:13:05 PM PDT by Original Lurker
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To: rickyrikardo

All polls I saw had Carson under 10%. If you can point me to an Iowa poll prior to yesterday that says different then by all means post it.


28 posted on 08/31/2015 2:13:12 PM PDT by skeeter
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To: canuck_conservative

Trouble for Carson is, he might be smart, but he has no business or administrative experience.

<><><><

I don’t know what counts for you in terms of business and administrative experience but he is on the board of directors of several extremely large US organizations.


29 posted on 08/31/2015 2:14:55 PM PDT by dmz
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To: skeeter

If Carson is of such high moral character, how could he go along with it?


30 posted on 08/31/2015 2:18:29 PM PDT by glenduh
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To: skeeter

You’re the one who has to point to an Iowa poll from last week, since you are the one who made the claim.


31 posted on 08/31/2015 2:19:09 PM PDT by rickyrikardo
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To: rickyrikardo
This article is likely a result of the gOpee Team Jeb's newest strategy - push Ben Carson to "test" Trump. FAIL. DOA.
32 posted on 08/31/2015 2:19:33 PM PDT by Servant of the Cross (the Truth will set you free)
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To: SamAdams76

The good news is the leading candidates on our side are ones that don’t have law degrees!


33 posted on 08/31/2015 2:20:43 PM PDT by nascarnation (Impeach, convict, deport)
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To: rickyrikardo

Nothing against Carson but I do not see how or where he got 23 percent in any poll.


34 posted on 08/31/2015 2:21:06 PM PDT by 48th SPS Crusader (I am an American. Not a Republican or a Democrat)
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To: glenduh
I wouldn't blame the doctor. Obviously he wants the nomination. He can be forgiven if he assumes his sudden rise in the polls were due to his campaign.

How would anyone know what the media were up to? These kinds of shenanigans come to them instinctively.

Anyway, its my theory.

35 posted on 08/31/2015 2:22:12 PM PDT by skeeter
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To: dmz

So was Hillary an d many others who get paid for being on boards, but really have NO say at all.


36 posted on 08/31/2015 2:23:54 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: skeeter

Reality TV horse race promotion. Keep you eye on the lame Congress and Zer0. That is where the real action is.


37 posted on 08/31/2015 2:24:11 PM PDT by Paladin2 (Ive given up on aphostrophys and spell chek on my current device...)
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To: Buckeye McFrog
he is anti-liberty on vaccines

In other words, he treats vaccines as a public health benefit whether or not they benefit any individual. Sounds pretty rational to me. Also in the big picture it is a minor issue.

38 posted on 08/31/2015 2:25:01 PM PDT by palmer (Net "neutrality" = Obama turning the internet into FlixNet)
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To: The Sons of Liberty

Agreed. He be a good cabinet pick, though.


39 posted on 08/31/2015 2:25:08 PM PDT by Puppage (You may disagree with what I have to say, but I shall defend to your death my right to say it)
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To: rickyrikardo
What I said was I haven't seen a poll where the Dr received more than single digits. That means any poll.

Maybe he's more popular in Iowa, but I find it very hard to believe he's suddenly in first place in that state while polling 15 or 20 puts behind the leader in others. If you have proof that he's been polling in the 20% in Iowa specifically then go ahead and provide a link.

Until then color me very skeptical.

40 posted on 08/31/2015 2:26:18 PM PDT by skeeter
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