Do you think Cruz would be in the top three if Trump weren’t in the picture.
That is one of the “what ifs” I cannot figure out. And I guess we’ll never know.
Trump has brought up a lot of good issues, but I would have loved to see Ted on top.
I think Trump’s voters would be dispersed but I could be wrong. Maybe they would go to Ted.
I think Trumps voters would be dispersed but I could be wrong. Maybe they would.
Cruz is generally thought to be in "fifth" place now - so I think him being in the top 3 had Trump not entered is reasonable. But when you change one thing, all kinds of other factors change too. Nothing happens in a vacuum. Without Trump, it would be an entirely different ballgame.
Having said that, I think there's no doubt that Trump's big personality has made some people forget that Cruz has been fighting many of these same fights far longer than Donald has. I also think there are a LOT of folks who are Trump-Cruz in that order - many who used to support Cruz but who now think Donald's fearless in your face persona is the best alternative.
If Trump declines, rapidly or slowly, I think those two categories would gravitate towards Cruz in far greater numbers than they would towards anyone else for sure.
Another theory I have is this - that Trump was not in it to win it initially, but that he certainly is now. I never believed that Trump and Cruz were in any kind of teamwork structure - but even if that were true, it is not true now.
That last is the problem right now. All these Trump bashers must assume EVERY Trump supporter will go over to Ted - a far reach IMO.
If Trump goes down now, his supporters will scatter to the fourth winds, including some RINOs - especially when the Establishment pours money behind Jeb again.
At this point, warts and all, Trump's my boy. If Cruz ever gets the traction he doesn't have now, and it boils down to those two, I will rethink my position, but right now, let's kill all the Rino contenders off first.