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Gold is doomed
Washington Post ^ | July 25, 2015 | Matt O'Brien

Posted on 07/27/2015 4:19:44 AM PDT by expat_panama

A little less than four years ago, the world looked like it was about to end and gold hit an all-time high of $1,895 an ounce.

The United States had manufactured a debt crisis, and Europe hadn't been able to manufacture a solution to its actual debt crisis, so panicky investors sought safety...

[snip]

That didn't mean, though, that gold wasn't a good short-term investment. It was. Just not for the reason goldbugs thought. Now, the problem with gold is it doesn't pay any interest or dividends, but it does cost money to store. So you have to pay up in the hope that it will pay off by going up in price. That usually makes it a pretty lousy investment. That calculus changes, though, when you're being paid to borrow—that is, when you're paying a negative real interest rate. But when does that happen? Well, when inflation is high but interest rates aren't quite as high, like in the 1970s, or when inflation is low but interest rates are lower still, like today. And that, as Paul Krugman and Larry Summers argued, is why gold prices were going up so much even though inflation wasn't.

It almost makes you feel bad for the goldbugs, until you remember that some substantial number of them are just trying to scare seniors out of their money. But the ones who aren't really thought the 1970s showed that gold went up when inflation did, so the fact that gold was going up now meant inflation couldn't be far behind.

[snip]

That sound you hear is goldbugs insisting that this is just a flesh wound.

[snip]

But don't feel too bad for the goldbugs. The best thing about predicting the apocalypse is you get to try again and again and again.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: economy; gold; investing
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Here are the numbers:

The long term  price of gold in 2015$ shows the average is around $800 and a drop below say, $500 wouldn't be unusual.

1 posted on 07/27/2015 4:19:44 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

If it drops under $600 buy, buy and buy some more. The so-called “manufactured debt crisis” is real.


2 posted on 07/27/2015 4:26:53 AM PDT by Russ (Repeal the '17th amendment.)
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To: expat_panama

If it drops under $600 buy, buy and buy some more. The so-called “manufactured debt crisis” is real.


3 posted on 07/27/2015 4:26:54 AM PDT by Russ (Repeal the '17th amendment.)
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Anyone buying gold as an investment is a fool.

Gold is a hedge, an insurance policy against inflation.

Act accordingly.


4 posted on 07/27/2015 4:28:42 AM PDT by Vermont Lt
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To: expat_panama

Anyone who buys gold as an investment is dumb. The purpose of gold is insurance.


5 posted on 07/27/2015 4:29:03 AM PDT by astroaddict
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To: Vermont Lt

Beat me.


6 posted on 07/27/2015 4:29:36 AM PDT by astroaddict
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To: 1010RD; A Cyrenian; abb; Abigail Adams; abigail2; AK_47_7.62x39; Aliska; aposiopetic; Aquamarine; ..

Monday morning.   Where's my coffee.  Stock index futures are down to -0.51% and metals are seen up +0.11% although gold right now is trading at $1,099.20 and silver's $14.74.   Durables come out today.   Some more headlines:


7 posted on 07/27/2015 4:29:42 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: astroaddict; Vermont Lt; Russ

Y’all may be right but let’s keep in mind that we all got opinions and feelings while the world gives us facts. Them that tried to ‘insure’ against inflation a couple years ago are not feeling very well protected right now.


8 posted on 07/27/2015 4:36:35 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

Is this why that gold guy who advertises on Rush is now pushing silver?


9 posted on 07/27/2015 4:39:16 AM PDT by Steely Tom (Vote GOP: A Slower Handbasket)
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To: expat_panama

What does Glenn Beck say about this. He’s Mr. Goldline.


10 posted on 07/27/2015 4:50:15 AM PDT by MNDude (God is not a Republican, but Satan is certainly a Democrat.)
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To: expat_panama

Why not? If you bought gold as insurance (the only reason to buy it), then fluctuations in price shouldn’t mean shit to you.

If one bought gold trying to predict inflation, you were essentially just gambling. Too bad for these people.


11 posted on 07/27/2015 4:54:42 AM PDT by astroaddict
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To: expat_panama

I would agree that gold is going to around $500 if...

Governments around the world didn’t have insane debts that can never be paid back.

We have never been here before with governments (to include America) with debts 100%+ GDP.

Default on the city/state and national stage is coming.

Many “paper” assets are going to wiped out or confiscated.


12 posted on 07/27/2015 4:58:21 AM PDT by 2banana (My common ground with terrorists - they want to die for islam and we want to kill them)
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To: Vermont Lt

Forget gold..buy more ammo .223 and 5.56.


13 posted on 07/27/2015 5:01:27 AM PDT by Ouderkirk (To the left, everything must evidence that this or that strand of leftist theory is true)
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To: expat_panama

China is looking a little ruff this morning

Chinese Stocks Suffer Second Biggest Crash In History, 1,500 Companies Halted Limit Down
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3317069/posts


14 posted on 07/27/2015 5:04:49 AM PDT by Lurkina.n.Learnin (It's a shame nobama truly doesn't care about any of this. Our country, our future, he doesn't care)
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To: expat_panama

“but it does cost money to store”

How much storage do you need? Thirty pounds of gold coins can fit in a small case and has half a million USD value at today’s gold prices.

Perhaps the author means the cost to protect and insure the gold which may not have much value in an apocalyptic scenario anyway.


15 posted on 07/27/2015 5:05:21 AM PDT by unlearner (RIP America, 7/4/1776 - 6/26/2015, "Only God can judge us now." - Claus Von Stauffenberg / Valkyrie)
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To: Ouderkirk

Better yet, buy .223 made out of gold..just a thought.


16 posted on 07/27/2015 5:05:58 AM PDT by richardtavor
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To: richardtavor

For use against vintage Dr.Who cybermen. Unit had some.


17 posted on 07/27/2015 5:11:24 AM PDT by wally_bert (There are no winners in a game of losers. I'm Tommy Joyce, welcome to the Oriental Lounge.)
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To: richardtavor

Or silver - you get more rounds per dollar, and as a bonus, you’re protected against vampires!


18 posted on 07/27/2015 5:12:11 AM PDT by Stosh
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To: MNDude
What does Glenn Beck say about this. He’s Mr. Goldline.

Whatever Goldline pays him to say.

19 posted on 07/27/2015 5:16:21 AM PDT by DoodleDawg
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To: Steely Tom

Silver is about $14.50/oz right now.

Some junk silver or peace cartwheels would be cheap insurance. At least silver can be used to buy or barter.

Could somebody explain how gold would be used to buy necessities? No comparisons with 1923 Germany; IIRC Germans with gold exchanged it for hard currencies like Swiss francs which they then spent in Germany, thus making things worse for the mark.


20 posted on 07/27/2015 5:17:09 AM PDT by elcid1970 ("The Second Amendment is more important than Islam.")
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