Posted on 07/07/2015 3:28:43 PM PDT by VinL
Look closer at Donald Trump’s recent surge in the polls, and you’ll see the Manhattan mogul’s base of support is suddenly growing, but he’s taking up oxygen from the sorts of conservative candidates who have in previous years drawn the excitement and attention of conservatives.
A testament to that fact: Texas senator Ted Cruz has gone out of his way to defend Trump in the wake of the firestorm surrounding the celebrity mogul’s recent comments on illegal immigrants, evidence that he is trying to elbow his way into the limelight and win the favor of the sizeable number of voters who are telling pollsters they’re supporting Trump. He may never rise above 15 percent in the polls, but it doesn’t mean he won’t affect the race.
Merely by making himself the center of attention, he has the potential to prevent other, more serious candidates on the right from gaining traction. ”Ted Cruz, among the more serious tier of candidates, had staked out probably the hardest line on immigration,” says Rick Wilson, a Florida-based Republican consultant. “He touches the same deeply angry, populist, and extremely vocal segment of the GOP that is furious over immigration, illegal and otherwise.
Trump directly draws from that hyper-populist pool, and Cruz realizes it, since he seems to be the last Republican still not knocking Trump’s block off.” Trump jumped from 3 percent at the end of May to 12 percent at the end of June in CNN’s national poll, putting himself in second place. In those same two surveys, Cruz dropped from 8 percent to 3 percent. Marco Rubio dropped from 14 percent to 6 percent, and Scott Walker dropped from 10 percent to 6 percent. In Fox News’s national poll, Trump leapt from 4 percent to 11 percent in a three-week stretch in June. Meanwhile, Cruz dropped from 8 percent to 4 percent; Rubio gained a point, and Walker dropped from 12 percent to 9 percent. ‘Trump directly draws from that hyper-populist pool, and Cruz realizes it, since he seems to be the last Republican still not knocking Trump’s block off.’
History, of course, suggests we should take Trump’s early polling strength with a grain of salt. In April 2011, the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling found Trump at the top of that cycle’s GOP field with 26 percent, ahead of Mike Huckabee at 17 percent and Mitt Romney at 15 percent. A week later, Gallup’s first national poll found Trump debuting in a first-place tie with Huckabee at 16 percent, while Romney languished in second at 13 percent. By mid-April, however, Trump had dropped to 8 percent in a Fox News poll, and he held steady there through early May, before announcing that he would not run for president after all.
Still, Trump’s latest surge is a problem for any number of other candidates in the field: It seems pretty clear that the mogul’s current fan base consists of the party’s most conservative voters — those who have in previous years rallied behind candidates such as former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum.
Many of the same voters, in fact, who warmly welcomed Ted Cruz into the race this time around. “Donald Trump is a salesman — he understands that a dispirited portion of the Republican primary electorate wants to hear that mountains can be moved and battles long ago lost can be successfully re-litigated, and he cannot resist making that pitch,” says Noah Rothman, an assistant editor at Commentary. “Ted Cruz, on the other hand, knows full well that the claims he has made regarding the introduction of a constitutional amendment that would subject Supreme Court justices to retention elections and advising states to ignore the Court’s ruling with regard to gay marriage are not only bad ideas but they are unfeasible. He, too, is pitching disaffected GOP voters.”
Liz Mair, a GOP consultant who formerly worked with Scott Walker, sees Trump benefiting from his high name ID, the usual bump that occurs after a campaign’s announcement, and his ability to reflect and amplify the base’s anger.
“There is a portion of the GOP electorate who are just mad as hell and aren’t going to take it anymore, who tend to show support for whoever also sounds the maddest or most inclined to stick it to the powers-that-be at any given time,” says Mair. “Trump is likely benefiting from a shift in support among people in the latter category away from candidates including Cruz, who is probably retaining support from conservatives who like his principles first and foremost, but may be losing out a little among the ‘burn the house down’ types,” she adds. “Those people want a presidential candidate who essentially allows them to vent their frustrations, by proxy; and Trump has a huge megaphone to amplify said venting.”
I provided links to stories about both statements. Donald Trump made boh of those statements and I can guarantee you that they will be used against him by Republican Primary opponents.
I want Trump in the debates. Aside from the entertainment value, he will force the others to take positions on issues they would rather not discuss. Immigration is the one issue that the GOPe would rather not have discussed.
I am unaware of any conservative who has given 6-digit figures to the Clinton Foundation. Trump has.
I don't know of any other conservative who has city contracts in Chicago, NY and NJ. Context matters.
I am unaware of any conservative who says, "people here ILLEGALLY should have 'a road to legal status' if they work hard and contribute to the country." Liberal Donald Trump said just that.
You're against people working hard and paying taxes in this country actually having a path to staying here. Noted.
I am unaware of any conservative who wants to ban "assault weapons". There is no such thing you know. "Assault weapon" is a term created by anti-gun liberals so they could ban guns based on cosmetic appearances...and Trump, being the liberal that he is, fell for it.
So if assault weapons are a lib fantasy, who cares if a fantasy is banned?
I am unaware of any conservative who has said they want to extend the waiting periods to purchase a gun. Trump has.
Crap. I better vote for Bush. Trump said 72 hours 15 years ago. Reagan was a Democrat a long time ago too.
I am unaware of any conservative who has praised as "Brilliant" gun-grabbing leftist Michael Bloomberg for "Putting His Money Where His Mouth Is" on guns.
Again, city contracts, which they are now trying to pull.
I am unaware of any conservative saying they "probably identify more as Democrat" like Trump has.
I could pull quotes from Reagan about being a Democrat, but I'm not going to change any minds here.
I think you are on to the strategy. Trump has drawn attention to the illegal immigration issue. That is what is driving his surge. Ultimately folks are going to figure out that Cruz has the same position and he knows how to get it implemented. Trump is a businessman, but Cruz has the legal mind necessary to get this done.
My hope is they will work together for the good of the country and that voters will tap into that spirit of patriotic cooperation.
So Rubio is trying to backtrack now after telling the folks in New Hampshire that he still supports amnesty? Unbelievable.
I wish folks would stop saying Cruz supports amnesty when he has NEVER supported amnesty and has a voting record to prove it. He said NO AMNESTY EVER for anyone here illegally.
Clearly drag queen, you have no sense of humor. Your personality by pass operation was clearly a momentous success.
No no no....you see, you don’t understand “amnesty” on FR...on FR, anything other than we can deport them all this week is amnesty.
You need to get your FR mind right............
Really? You’re gonna embarrass yourself with the Reagan / Trump analogy? Why don’t you get back to me after Trumps been governor of a major state AND spent 30 years giving conservative addresses and commentaries and columns.
I’m waiting.......
Yep, and Cruz has already handled it deftly....the only one. The fact is these are the two feistiest candidates (along with Carly) - and there is a craving for that combative fearless spirit. And at the end of the day, Cruz is a far more solid conservative than Trump has ever been or ever will be.
He chose his words carefully and spoke slowly. Did not personally attack Trump nor react to anything Trump had said about him. Sort of like dealing with a rattle snake -RRRespect!
Why is no one using it now? You know, as a momentum stopper?
He was asked about that by George Stephanoupolous on ABC news, during his interview, as a joke, and he was laughing about it, and laughed it off. The only place I hear about it is on this site. If you are hanging hopes on that piece of nonsense, be prepared to be disappointed.
Aside from your mischaracterization of Cruz, it was your boi said those illegals who are working can stay.........
Nice try. He didn't have contracts with all the far left kooks he has given to money to or in the cities they represented.
You're against people working hard and paying taxes in this country actually having a path to staying here. Noted..
I'm not for ILLEGAL aliens benefitting from their ILLEGAL entry into this county. That you are has been duly noted.
So if assault weapons are a lib fantasy, who cares if a fantasy is banned?
My, but you really are uninformed. The "assault weapons" ban was created so liberals could ban guns they couldn't ban otherwise. One this farce of legislation was passed, guns could then be banned based solely on cosmetic appearances as defined by the "assault weapon" ban. This was a far-left anti-gun ploy and dumbass Donald Trump fell for it just as you are falling for him now.
Crap. I better vote for Bush. Trump said 72 hours 15 years ago. Reagan was a Democrat a long time ago too.
You are but the latest on a long list of uninformed Trump supporters who have compared this liberal democRAT to President Reagan. Reagan was once a Democrat, but he was a conservative Democrat, that is why he switched parties. And once he switched he never looked back, he never supported the democRAT party or its members and once he did leave he certainly never said "I probably identify more as a democRAT".
Again, city contracts, which they are now trying to pull.
He has given generously to far left kooks who represented cities he did not have contracts with and to democRAT committees as well.
I could pull quotes from Reagan about being a Democrat, but I'm not going to change any minds here.
I'll provide one for you. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zh2DeQtVyJM
You’re dealing with someone who’s IQ is sub 50 and who’s kool aid quotient is off the charts!
He has achieved some action and fought the battle: He has told the truth about immigration and he has not backed down. Cruz, on the other hand, voted to give Obama more power on TPA. That is action, is it not?
You know they're not the brightest when they stoop to that.
dragqueen? lol!
True. But a lot of folks around here shouldn't try analogy at home....it's not as easy as people think apparently. The shallow mind will find ONE or TWO little things in common, and BOOM, make a whole full fledged (but flawed) analogy on it. One or two things does not an analogy make...they are merely factoids and/or coincidences.....
I watched your fellow Trump opponents from the MSM, evil liberal networks, Mexico, and the corrupt pre-paid mouths in D.C.
Looking sharp Edmond.
You folks might be successful yet removing Trump.
Then they can all go back to business as usual looting Americans and what’s left of the American treasure. The rest of America will have figured out they’ve just been betrayed again.
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