Posted on 07/07/2015 3:28:43 PM PDT by VinL
Look closer at Donald Trump’s recent surge in the polls, and you’ll see the Manhattan mogul’s base of support is suddenly growing, but he’s taking up oxygen from the sorts of conservative candidates who have in previous years drawn the excitement and attention of conservatives.
A testament to that fact: Texas senator Ted Cruz has gone out of his way to defend Trump in the wake of the firestorm surrounding the celebrity mogul’s recent comments on illegal immigrants, evidence that he is trying to elbow his way into the limelight and win the favor of the sizeable number of voters who are telling pollsters they’re supporting Trump. He may never rise above 15 percent in the polls, but it doesn’t mean he won’t affect the race.
Merely by making himself the center of attention, he has the potential to prevent other, more serious candidates on the right from gaining traction. ”Ted Cruz, among the more serious tier of candidates, had staked out probably the hardest line on immigration,” says Rick Wilson, a Florida-based Republican consultant. “He touches the same deeply angry, populist, and extremely vocal segment of the GOP that is furious over immigration, illegal and otherwise.
Trump directly draws from that hyper-populist pool, and Cruz realizes it, since he seems to be the last Republican still not knocking Trump’s block off.” Trump jumped from 3 percent at the end of May to 12 percent at the end of June in CNN’s national poll, putting himself in second place. In those same two surveys, Cruz dropped from 8 percent to 3 percent. Marco Rubio dropped from 14 percent to 6 percent, and Scott Walker dropped from 10 percent to 6 percent. In Fox News’s national poll, Trump leapt from 4 percent to 11 percent in a three-week stretch in June. Meanwhile, Cruz dropped from 8 percent to 4 percent; Rubio gained a point, and Walker dropped from 12 percent to 9 percent. ‘Trump directly draws from that hyper-populist pool, and Cruz realizes it, since he seems to be the last Republican still not knocking Trump’s block off.’
History, of course, suggests we should take Trump’s early polling strength with a grain of salt. In April 2011, the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling found Trump at the top of that cycle’s GOP field with 26 percent, ahead of Mike Huckabee at 17 percent and Mitt Romney at 15 percent. A week later, Gallup’s first national poll found Trump debuting in a first-place tie with Huckabee at 16 percent, while Romney languished in second at 13 percent. By mid-April, however, Trump had dropped to 8 percent in a Fox News poll, and he held steady there through early May, before announcing that he would not run for president after all.
Still, Trump’s latest surge is a problem for any number of other candidates in the field: It seems pretty clear that the mogul’s current fan base consists of the party’s most conservative voters — those who have in previous years rallied behind candidates such as former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum.
Many of the same voters, in fact, who warmly welcomed Ted Cruz into the race this time around. “Donald Trump is a salesman — he understands that a dispirited portion of the Republican primary electorate wants to hear that mountains can be moved and battles long ago lost can be successfully re-litigated, and he cannot resist making that pitch,” says Noah Rothman, an assistant editor at Commentary. “Ted Cruz, on the other hand, knows full well that the claims he has made regarding the introduction of a constitutional amendment that would subject Supreme Court justices to retention elections and advising states to ignore the Court’s ruling with regard to gay marriage are not only bad ideas but they are unfeasible. He, too, is pitching disaffected GOP voters.”
Liz Mair, a GOP consultant who formerly worked with Scott Walker, sees Trump benefiting from his high name ID, the usual bump that occurs after a campaign’s announcement, and his ability to reflect and amplify the base’s anger.
“There is a portion of the GOP electorate who are just mad as hell and aren’t going to take it anymore, who tend to show support for whoever also sounds the maddest or most inclined to stick it to the powers-that-be at any given time,” says Mair. “Trump is likely benefiting from a shift in support among people in the latter category away from candidates including Cruz, who is probably retaining support from conservatives who like his principles first and foremost, but may be losing out a little among the ‘burn the house down’ types,” she adds. “Those people want a presidential candidate who essentially allows them to vent their frustrations, by proxy; and Trump has a huge megaphone to amplify said venting.”
I’d vote for Perot again if I had it to do all over again...And with what we know now, so would most everyone else...
Trump is so funny. He thought everyone was getting their knife out to play mumbley peg. Now he hs media knives in his chest, GOP knives in his flank and Rat knives in his back. He shoulda done a “shock and awe” on the enemedia immediately.
Only if the rest of the field isn't smart enough to follow the trail Trump is blazing. Only Senator Cruz was smart enough to say the Donald is right.
Cruz wants that 15% Trump tapped into. All the rest are telling that 15% to learn Spanish. Or FOAD.
Clown Car, right out of the DNC playbook. If not for Trump there would be no discussion about illegal aliens.
Pray America is waking
“...he has the potential to prevent other, more serious candidates on the right from gaining traction.”
In Geraghty’s little mind, I wonder why he would consider Trump so blemished that he cannot possibly be considered a serious candidate. That is the standard meme from liberals in the media. When Reagan ran, after he had been a successful governor of California for eight years, he was a non-serious candidate because he was a Hollywood actor, and too old, and too conservative. As Rush pointed out, (and others on this site also have), these Trump detractors NEVER challenge what Trump is saying, they, (along with a lot of people on this site), just attack Trump.
Dr Ben has said he is right and even Rubio said this afternoon the message was correct. He just questioned the delivery and its results
Classy. You should learn from your boy Cruz on how to handle comments.
“Cruz knows Trump is driving the clown car so when he implodes...”
Just interested — what has Trump said or done that would qualify him to be called a clown? Just one example would suffice.
Georgiagirl, you nailed that one.
Said a supporter of Donald Trump. lol!
National review is all in for amnesty.Just another hit piece against the truth that Trump is outing.
Sucking the air from rinos. You make it sound like its a bad thing.
With that said, he is still a LIFELONG LIBERAL DEMOCRAT and as such deserves no serious consideration for the Republican nomination.
If you remain confused in the future please refer back to this post.
Hear,hear!
The no holds barred delivery is part of the winning formula. PC is a turn off for conservatives. Cruz said he does not talk that way but The Donald does and that is OK. Cruz then praised Trump for bringing this important message to the debate.
I doubt the colonel will get back to you.
Geez. 4 times in one thread. You really think your changing any minds?
Here’s two:
Trump said that Oprah Winfrey would make a great running mate.
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/Decoder/2015/0617/Trump-Oprah-2016-A-match-made-in-reality-TV-heaven-video
Trump said that Bill Clinton was the best president of the last four.
http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/Donald-trump-bill-clinton-president-best/2015/06/17/id/651031/
your = you’re
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.