Posted on 07/07/2015 3:28:43 PM PDT by VinL
Look closer at Donald Trump’s recent surge in the polls, and you’ll see the Manhattan mogul’s base of support is suddenly growing, but he’s taking up oxygen from the sorts of conservative candidates who have in previous years drawn the excitement and attention of conservatives.
A testament to that fact: Texas senator Ted Cruz has gone out of his way to defend Trump in the wake of the firestorm surrounding the celebrity mogul’s recent comments on illegal immigrants, evidence that he is trying to elbow his way into the limelight and win the favor of the sizeable number of voters who are telling pollsters they’re supporting Trump. He may never rise above 15 percent in the polls, but it doesn’t mean he won’t affect the race.
Merely by making himself the center of attention, he has the potential to prevent other, more serious candidates on the right from gaining traction. ”Ted Cruz, among the more serious tier of candidates, had staked out probably the hardest line on immigration,” says Rick Wilson, a Florida-based Republican consultant. “He touches the same deeply angry, populist, and extremely vocal segment of the GOP that is furious over immigration, illegal and otherwise.
Trump directly draws from that hyper-populist pool, and Cruz realizes it, since he seems to be the last Republican still not knocking Trump’s block off.” Trump jumped from 3 percent at the end of May to 12 percent at the end of June in CNN’s national poll, putting himself in second place. In those same two surveys, Cruz dropped from 8 percent to 3 percent. Marco Rubio dropped from 14 percent to 6 percent, and Scott Walker dropped from 10 percent to 6 percent. In Fox News’s national poll, Trump leapt from 4 percent to 11 percent in a three-week stretch in June. Meanwhile, Cruz dropped from 8 percent to 4 percent; Rubio gained a point, and Walker dropped from 12 percent to 9 percent. ‘Trump directly draws from that hyper-populist pool, and Cruz realizes it, since he seems to be the last Republican still not knocking Trump’s block off.’
History, of course, suggests we should take Trump’s early polling strength with a grain of salt. In April 2011, the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling found Trump at the top of that cycle’s GOP field with 26 percent, ahead of Mike Huckabee at 17 percent and Mitt Romney at 15 percent. A week later, Gallup’s first national poll found Trump debuting in a first-place tie with Huckabee at 16 percent, while Romney languished in second at 13 percent. By mid-April, however, Trump had dropped to 8 percent in a Fox News poll, and he held steady there through early May, before announcing that he would not run for president after all.
Still, Trump’s latest surge is a problem for any number of other candidates in the field: It seems pretty clear that the mogul’s current fan base consists of the party’s most conservative voters — those who have in previous years rallied behind candidates such as former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum.
Many of the same voters, in fact, who warmly welcomed Ted Cruz into the race this time around. “Donald Trump is a salesman — he understands that a dispirited portion of the Republican primary electorate wants to hear that mountains can be moved and battles long ago lost can be successfully re-litigated, and he cannot resist making that pitch,” says Noah Rothman, an assistant editor at Commentary. “Ted Cruz, on the other hand, knows full well that the claims he has made regarding the introduction of a constitutional amendment that would subject Supreme Court justices to retention elections and advising states to ignore the Court’s ruling with regard to gay marriage are not only bad ideas but they are unfeasible. He, too, is pitching disaffected GOP voters.”
Liz Mair, a GOP consultant who formerly worked with Scott Walker, sees Trump benefiting from his high name ID, the usual bump that occurs after a campaign’s announcement, and his ability to reflect and amplify the base’s anger.
“There is a portion of the GOP electorate who are just mad as hell and aren’t going to take it anymore, who tend to show support for whoever also sounds the maddest or most inclined to stick it to the powers-that-be at any given time,” says Mair. “Trump is likely benefiting from a shift in support among people in the latter category away from candidates including Cruz, who is probably retaining support from conservatives who like his principles first and foremost, but may be losing out a little among the ‘burn the house down’ types,” she adds. “Those people want a presidential candidate who essentially allows them to vent their frustrations, by proxy; and Trump has a huge megaphone to amplify said venting.”
Well how else are you going to "overwhelm the system"/
There ya go.
SElf deport would happen quicker is there were no benefits and jobs. They save thousands to pay the coyote let them pay their own way home
Drug cartels would soon have transportation problems
Sorry, I meant to put a question mark at the end of my sentence.
I think you have summed it up VERY nicely. Well said.
“He stated a problem. Big deal. What’s he going to DO about the problem. He’s running his mouth. I’ve dealt with dozens of people that were loud and said they stood for something, when they didn’t do anything except talk.”
As you probably have noticed, it is the custom of candidates for office to tell the voters (running their mouths: how else are they supposed to do it?) what their concerns are. Trump has spelled out his concerns (absolute lack of border control, illegal immigration, illegal alien crime, de-industrialization) and what he intends to do about them. He is not yet in office. Obama is president. His analysis of the problems is what is causing problems with liberals, Republican and democrat and the media, and some offended posters here. Why are you so offended by what he says?
Yep, they make it seem that the only solution is amnesty. Why the urgency to do anything with the lawbreakers save making it more difficult for them to live and work here? Why should we reward them with the object of their crime? What message does it send to others contemplating entering this country? These lawbreakers have not only entered illegally, they have committed other crimes including identity theft, tax evasion, working illegally, lying on employment forms, etc.
Agreed. We have admitted over 30 million legal permanent immigrants since 1990—almost the equivalent of the total population of Canada. In 1970 there were 9.7 million foreign born; today it is 41.5 million. We are being colonized by the Third World. Demography is destiny.
Cruz - 2016!
If that doesn't get attention nothing will. That's the equivalent of adding 30 major cities of 1 million each to our country.
Did they ever mention a cut off date or number? Or should America expect more of the same for the next 25 years?
These are serious reckless polices no matter what their agendas are.
you have been on the GOPe plantation too long. Free yourself. :-)
http://www.campaignmoney.com/biography/donald_trump.asp
Political Campaign Contributions by Donald Trump (1999 to Present) - $898,300
DEMOCRAT: 37.80% REPUBLICAN: 62.20%
While I support Cruz as the best candidate - I’m enjoying Trumps brash outspokenness- so fun seeing him tie the liberal media up in knots.
According to this chart - he is a pragmatist, donates to both parties as many big business types do but it does look like he’s dontated more to Rs than Ds, at least as of the time this chart was made. I don’t think it really proves anything about what he really believes on the issues.
Secondly, it makes no mention of the $22k he gave to Ed Rendell or the $25k he gave to Terry McAwful.
Nice try, though.
Are you really so deluded so as to consider Ted Cruz part of the GOPe?
Yes, I suppose in your world he would be.
You embarrass yourself more with each post.
The current total cap is about 1.1 million a year. This could go up because certain categories are unlimited, e.g., spousal visas. We now accept gay couples, which could be exploited as another way to bring people in. We have just had the two largest decades of legal immigration in US history.
And if we have an amnesty, those legalized will be able to bring in tens of millions of their relatives thru chain migration, i.e., family reunification.
You are going after arguments I never made.....I was simply parroting, or perhaps parodying those on here who do indeed look at amnesty just exactly as I stated.
The 6 columns on the right seem to have a pattern heading off the chart,From 1965 Immigration law. Our generosity should be limited and within reason. We don’t have that either.
Seems like Jim had one motive - to trash Cruz. Trump in the headlines is mentioned 29 times but Cruz is also mentioned a lot - 15 times and several with derogatory statements by others included.
I love what Trump is doing and I love that "they" are so obviously not going to stop fearing Cruz, but are worried that what he stands for will become even more apparent to Conservatives and gain him increased attention.
Yeah, the leftist media and Rinos are having a field day with Trumping conservatives as racists (as is usual), but the Rinos are proven stupid losers who get beaten like a red headed step child in every election, over and over again. Nothing to be proud of.
I’m also a Ted Cruz supporter. He and Trump are the only two candidates with a chance to win the general election. Anybody else and you can start saying President Clinton.
Your problem is that that you still listen to the GOPe and buy into this Trump is a clown, Trump is a Liberal Democrat nonsense. Get off the plantation.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.