Posted on 06/25/2015 4:46:03 AM PDT by expat_panama
The U.S. economy contracted in the first three months of the year, just not as much as previously estimated. More recent data show that the weakness was largely temporary, with a rebound in the works for the April-June quarter.
The economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, shrank at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.2 percent from January through March, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. That's better than last month's estimate of a 0.7 percent decrease.
Harsh winter weather slowed spending by keeping consumers away from shopping malls and auto dealerships. The trade deficit ballooned, slicing growth by the most since 1985 as exports fell and imports rose.
Yet consumers stepped up their spending in May, and home sales are climbing — signs that the economy is back on track. In addition, many of the headwinds the economy faced in the first quarter — from an increase in the dollar's value to spending cutbacks by oil drillers — are fading.
"Growth should remain near 3 percent in the second half of the year as the dampening effects of a strong dollar and oil industry slump fade," Sal Guatieri, an economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note to clients.
Forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisors predicts growth will reach 2.7 percent in the second quarter. And many economists agree with Guatieri that growth should reach 3 percent in the second half of the year.
Still, that would leave growth in the first half at a weak 1.2 percent annual rate. The economy appears to be on track for another year of modest 2 percent to 2.5 percent growth.
That's far below the optimism at the beginning of the year, when lower oil prices and healthy hiring led many economists to forecast growth above 3 percent...
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.townhall.com ...
It could be that a lot people have adjusted to a new normal of less job stability, lower wages, and thinking about how their money is being spent.
FWIW, my neighbor works in a large nursery. They've had very good business this year. One big item is organic seeds.
Maybe things are a bit better.
Summer of Recovery Version 7.0!
I manage a Garden Center and sales are UP this season - but then, I haven’t had a down year in the past ten - some just ‘less’ UP than others. :)
We also sell seeds, and seed sales and sales of veggie plants are through the roof, again - this has been trending for the past decade, as well. People DO want to become more self-sufficient. Not enough to make a big difference if TSHTF, but consistently more and more, year over year.
Perennial plants and tree and shrub sales are also up - people ARE staying out and improving their yards and enjoying ‘stay-cations’ more than before.
The only time I’ve ever ‘suffered’ due to economics was when I was a teen and Carter was in office. Oh, Man! If you lived through those days, you know what things were like! At least inflation THEN was out in the open for all to see. It truly IS hidden these days, with the help of the Enemy Media.
But, climate change is killing the planet!!!
Don’t seem to remember this ongoing first quarter ‘harsh weather’ problem during the Reagan recovery...guess it never snowed during those years.
You know that not wanting to see things to improve is crazy. Funny thing is that I'm also constantly fighting to keep from wanting bad news too!
Oh, the article would have looked like reality. But this is the era of the affirmative action president where almost 7 years of poor economic performance is ignored and swept under the rug.
--and it's because competent folks do well no matter what. Good going!
You want fries with that shi! sandwich?
You want fries with that shi! sandwich?
Sorry to poke a hole in your theory, but the same four people have been working here for the last 10 years. However, this is the busiest we have been in all those years.
I think business just TRIES to improve despite obstacles and roadblocks thrown up by this administration. I mean, after all, people are trying to feed their families. Another explanation, is we do business with places that rely on government money (grants, etc.), so they’re flush with the fruit of our labors.
There are sector variations. Cyclicals. Curiously, the myth is that medical gets better the worse the economy gets.
Well gee, this is what the NYT said in May when those numbers came out:
"The United States economy got off to an even weaker start this year than first thought, the government reported Friday, as economic activity contracted because of a more dismal trade performance and continued caution by businesses and consumers alike."
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/30/business/economy/us-economy-gdp-q1-revision.html?_r=0
That is curious, and would explain why things are doing “better” in Minnesota? (I also like to attribute it to ND’s success with the oil fields... love to rub that in the faces of lib “friends”).
No question. Especially if you are in oil field supply.
Chicago RE has heated up.
You notice what’s been happening in the Shanghai market? A few months ago, I posted a note about how EVERYBODY in China seemed to be obsessed with the growth in their stock market.
It looked like a SUPER BUBBLE to me... and, it sure looks now like they’re at the beginning of a major correction.
The conspiracy-nut in me wonders whether the US has done anything to facilitate this... you know, as a little undercover payback for all the snooping and hacking they’ve been doing??
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