Much of what you say is true, but I think you underplay the significance of the TPP treachery in all this. Further polls and contributions data will tell the tale.
I also have a somewhat different explanation for Ben Carson, who does happen to be a Doctor regardless of whether its in quotes or not. He is the one of the few upper tier candidates who does not have a background in politics. The public’s aversion to politics, and more importantly the aversion to those elected to office is showing up in the candidate selections and polls. There is some logic to it. If you take the point of view that people elected to serve in Washington quickly become amoral scuzzballs, then you probably want to elect those who have never been there on the hopes that you might get a few years of decent governance before they go over to the dark side. I don’t agree, but see the logic in it.
I think we’re better off not wasting our time.
you are correct ... “time will tell ...”