The U.S. Economy Just Had Its Worst Month Since the Recession

WSJ ^ | 14 May 2015 | Ben Leubsdorf

[Theoria]

The U.S. economy had a really bad March, the worst since the financial crisis. But don’t panic.

The broadest gauge of U.S. economic output, from the Commerce Department, tracks the economy on a quarterly basis. The private forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers provides a measure to track gross domestic product on a monthly basis, highlighting some of the volatility that gets smoothed out in the official quarterly figures.

Macroeconomic Advisers on Thursday said its monthly estimate showed GDP fell an inflation-adjusted 1% in March, the largest drop since December 2008, “when the U.S. economy was in the throes of recession,” the firm said. Monthly GDP had climbed 0.3% in February and ticked up 0.1% in January after falling 0.4% in December, the firm said.

The key reason not to worry too much: The contraction reflected a drop in net exports related to the resolution of a labor dispute at West Coast ports, the firm said.

“Because the decline in monthly GDP was driven by a surge in imports that was probably unrelated to current production, we are suspicious of it and believe it overstates the underlying weakness in the economy,” Macroeconomic Advisers said in a note to clients.

The Commerce Department’s initial estimate of first-quarter GDP pegged growth at a 0.2% seasonally adjusted annual pace. An updated figure due out May 29 is expected to show the economy actually contracted.

[DannyTN]

Tariffs never caused depressions.

We had tariffs greater than 20% all during the roaring 20's. And the Smoot-Hawley tariff wasn't passed until we were a year and a half into the Great Depression. Not only that, but back then imports were equal to 5% of our GNP. Imports just weren't big enough to account for the Great Depression.

[sefarkas]

Looks like predicting recessions that never occur. Should be having the fourth one by now using that chart. The data is very noisy. I do not understand how they can replicate the Commerce Department survey(s).

[St_Thomas_Aquinas]

When Reagan was president the economy was adding 700k jobs per month.

Bonehead and McTurtle could learn something.

Zero and Liawatha, not eaven a hope.

[Theoria]

Looking back, I tend to believe Reagan had it easy. In a globalized structure today, it will be harder and harder to grow compared to the past. Reagan[US] didn't compete with China and such back then. Today is vastly different.

The US has taken longer and longer to recover after each recession.

[wally_bert]

Half way expecting a real life 10-289 directive.

[roadcat]

I guess that’s why the media is pouring out those “Everything is looking up” stories.

But it is! Obama just gave a speech a few days ago, saying the nation is growing and prospering, and the recession is long over! /s

[Joe Boucher]

doing a great job there obammy,
ya marxist dumbass.

[SumProVita]

Most people are not seeing REALITY.

Here’s what Bill Holter of Miles Franklin has to say:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60sA0iDQtLI

“That didn’t take long did it? I of course am speaking of the second overnight and global meltdown of the credit markets …in the last four business days! Before getting into this topic which I believe will soon be seen in retrospect and by historians far into the future as “THE” trigger event.” (sic) http://blog.milesfranklin.com/a-foundation-of-bad-credit-is-no-foundation-at-all

Pray ... and prepare!

[notdownwidems]

And Eastasia has always been at war with Oceania

[1010RD]

I don’t think so. All the most popular video games involve trading and earning.