Posted on 05/07/2015 1:09:16 PM PDT by UKrepublican
:: Follow the election results live on skynews.com, our mobile apps and on Sky News TV from 10pm.
Voters are going to the polls across the country to decide who will form the next government.
Polling stations opened at 7am and close at 10pm in the United Kingdom's 650 constituencies.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.sky.com ...
First result - more numbers
Posted at 22:56
More on Houghton and Sunderland South. UKIP took 8,280 votes, the Conservatives 7,105, the Greens 1,095 and the Lib Dems 791. There was a 7% swing from Labour to UKIP.
It looks like the LD are going to be decimated. Labor looks to lose many seats thanks to the SNP. UKIP is making a splash and could outpoll the LD.
Houghton & Sunderland South has the first counts to be announced; I heard of it as a safe Labour seat, and 55% of the votes went to Labour. I mention it mainly because UKIP got second place, and according to what I was just hearing, there was a swing of 7% from Labour to UKIP.
Yes good show for UKIP.
Exit poll had them in 3rd place.....
Yep they will be taken out thankfully.
Very interesting. UKIP pulled about 9% higher than predicted on the site associated with 538.com, pulling from both the predicted Liberal and Conservative totals. If this is indicative, they may be in for a breakthrough that should pull seats from both of the two major parties. Of course, one data point isn’t much to work with.
Sunderland Central has the second counts to be announced; again, Labour held this seat. UKIP got third place, but it had a 17% increase since the 2010 election, the largest positive swing of any of the parties.
2nd seat in—UKIP about higher than model prediction, almost all at the expense of the Conservatives.
Washington & Sunderland West has the third counts to be announced, and yet again Labour held this seat. UKIP got into second place here, with a 16% swing since 2010 (the largest positive swing of any party) and a 6.9% swing from Labour to UKIP.
3rd seat in—UKIP almost 7% higher than model projection, about half from Conservatives and the rest (I think) from the LDs—Labour spot on. (The model may be found here http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/uk-general-election-predictions/ )
UKIP running second thus far.
If the model diverges from reality in the direction indicated by the first three seats, it looks bad for the Conservatives. That said, it is likely that people in competitive seats and in safe Conservative seats will behave somewhat differently.
If this trend keeps up for UKIP, what we would have here is called the Bradley effect—a significant percentage of people lying to posters because they perceive their actual action as socially unacceptable. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect
Hmmm. Maybe folks are lying to the pollsters.
Yup. I couldn’t remember the name for it.
I cant make heads or @#$234ing tails of what’s going on :)
There is actually a different name for it in England—the “Shy Tory” effect. (see the 7:08 post here http://fivethirtyeight.com/liveblogs/uk-general-election-2015/
If the first three ridings in are indicative, and they may very well not be as they are both contiguous and safe Labour, what seems to have been going on is that a significant chunk of the people initially planning to vote Conservative or UKIP were admitting neither, and a significant number of people who voted UKIP have told the exit polls “Conservative.”
If this is the case, it will be a very interesting night, and the worst case scenario ends up looking a great deal like Alberta (the NDP took a solid majority on Tuesday on the strength of 40% of the vote)>
Bradley Effect
The bookies have turned on Farage in his seat, seems he might lose. Would be a devastating loss for British politics.
BBC isn’t even showing UKIP in their live count.
Just “other”
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