Posted on 04/28/2015 7:08:22 AM PDT by SoConPubbie
The past week was a very good one for Ted Cruz in South Carolina, as he swept the straw polls at four bi-annual Republican county conventions, and one county GOP Executive Committee bi-monthly meeting.
The first came as Cruz won the Anderson County GOP convention straw poll as follows: Cruz 27%, Walker 25%, Rubio 15%, Huckabee 9%, Graham and Perry 6% each, Santorum 5%, Bush, Paul and Carson 1% each.
But the biggest prizes came for Cruz as he won Greenville, Spartanburg and Aiken GOP convention straw polls all on the same day as follows:
Greenville: Cruz 28%, Walker 22%, Carson 8.5%, Rubio and Santorum 8% each, Bush 5%, Paul and Huckabee 3% each, Graham 3%, Perry 2%, Fiorina 1%
Spartanburg: Cruz 32%, Walker 30%, Santorum 14%, Paul 7%, Others 16% combined.
In the Aiken straw poll, voters could vote for multiple candidates by listing their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd choices. Scott Walker got the most total votes, but Cruz edged Walker out in 1st choice votes as follows: Cruz 36%, Walker 32%, Rubio 14%, Santorum 9%, Paul 6%
And finally, late last week came the Dorchester county GOP Executive Committee straw poll: Cruz 30%, Walker 25%, Carson 16%, Rubio 11%, Paul 7%, Graham 4%, Santorum 2%, Kasich 2%
Greenville and Spartanburg are by far the two largest and most populated GOP voting counties in the state and count for more than 20% of the total GOP primary vote. The two counties accounted for nearly half of Governor Haley’s 2010 general election net votes.
In order to vote in a GOP convention straw poll, a person must attend their bi-annual precinct reorganization meeting, an be elected as a delegate to their county convention, and pay a registration fee to attend. In the case of the Dorchester Executive Committee, individuals have to attend their precinct reorganization meetings and be elected as a Precinct Committeeman which makes them a voting member of the county Executive Committee. So these straw polls are not ones that can have outside people brought in to vote and sway the results.
While GOP convention and Executive Committee straw polls do not fully represent the primary electorate as a whole, they are a sampling of the most active members of the Republican Party and conservative activists. Having command of their early support can help propel a candidate to later success with the general electorate.
When looking at the numbers from all 5 straw polls combined, four interesting things stand out as a pattern:
1. Ted Cruz won each poll by a pretty consistent margin, and with a pretty consistent percentage of the vote.
2. Similarly, Scott Walker came in a consistent 2nd place by a similar margin, and took a similar percentage of the vote in each poll.
(Take a look at the matchup in all five polls between Cruz and Walker.)
Greenville: Cruz 28%, Walker 22%
Spartanburg: Cruz 32%, Walker 30%
Anderson: Cruz 27%, Walker 25%
Dorchester: Cruz 30%, Walker 25%
Aiken: Cruz 36%, Walker 32%
3. Jeb Bush did not get above 5% of the vote in any of the polls, and in Dorchester and Aiken he received zero votes.
4. Similar to Jeb Bush, Rand Paul scored very low in all polls, especially in Greenville 3%, and Anderson 1%.
Steven Wright, a conservative activist from Dorchester was a voting member in Dorchester’s straw poll. Wright said that he is excited to be helping with the grassroots effort for the Ted Cruz campaign. “The American people are ready for a leader that does what he promises. Senator Cruz has been an active fighter for freedom and limited government in the U.S Senate. I see a large amount of grassroots support here in the Low Country for Senator Cruz. The grassroots are ready to take our country back and we see Senator Cruz as the only candidate in the race who will do that.” Wright said
One of biggest GOP straw poll prizes in SC will be awarded this Saturday evening as paying attendees of the annual Silver Elephant Banquet cast their votes. Ted Cruz will be one of the attending speakers. Unlike the county conventions, attendees to the banquet do not have to be elected, merely purchase a $40 ticket. It will be interesting to see the results.
I’m glad to hear it as I’m getting a gag reflex from having Mitt Walker jammed down my throat.
You speak the truth.
Cruz support is building all across the country.
Good news!
I’m near the max now.
Keep the fundraising up, folks who can. We need to scare off the also-rans, consolidate conservatives, and fund the later rounds that go broader.
Core Conservatives have their biggest chance to influence NOW.
Later is good, but NOW is BEST.
Whuh-oh. Even in a straw poll that is not good.
One really has to scour the internet for positives on Sen. Cruz. Yesterday-
Iowa’s Deace-
“If you look at how Cruz has stood out on the religious freedom issue and how quickly he has come here and organized Iowa, if the caucuses were held today, he would win. And, he might even win convincingly,” said Deace, who lives with his wife and children in Iowa. “Cruz right now is putting together the parameters of an organization that, if he stays on the road he is on, he will be difficult to beat here.”
Bill Kristol of Sen. Cruz at the “Adelson Primary”
Kristol, who attended the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas over the weekend, said he was very impressed with Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, the first Republican to declare his candidacy for president.
“The big story of the weekend was Cruz. Ted Cruz gave a speech and … it was just outstanding. Five standing ovations,” Kristol said.
“I’ve seen Cruz many times and he’s always very good, but at times he can be a little overbearing or a little preachy or maybe not quite thick with the audience. But he really hit on all cylinders.”
Kristol said he talked to a number of Republicans before the Cruz speech who told him, “’Well, I respect Cruz and he’s good on Israel, but I couldn’t nominate him, he’s too conservative, too confrontational.’”
But afterward, Kristol said the mood was different.
“It was, ‘Boy that was something. I still worry that maybe he couldn’t win, but boy, I got to rethink this.’”
Deace is interesting because if Huckabee, Santorum or Jindal wanted traction, Deace would be a guy they would have to look to. However, Deace is wrong about Cruz ‘winning’ (at this point), as Iowa Gov. Branstad has his establishment backing Walker.
Looks like Grahamnesty is not getting much traction even though he is the home boy. Maybe there is some buyer’s remorse over reelecting the jerk last year.
Awesome baby !
Impressive until “Loveable Lindsey” tells them they can’t go with Cruz.
SC people believe they are right; they hesitate to defeat an incumbent because that would mean they were previously wrong. Ditto MS people.
I hope this “Deace” is right, but it is IA, and they might just resurrect ol’ neighbor Dole there.
Maybe GWB will come out of “retirement” and come to SC and tell them to go with Jebbie.
Maybe there ARE enough smart people who are sick of lies and corruption!
Maybe enough people UNDERSTAND the Constitution or have even heard of it!!!
Uh oh, I am daring to dream!!!!
3. Jeb Bush did not get above 5% of the vote in any of the polls, and in Dorchester and Aiken he received zero votes.
Some things just make you smile. Cue Lily Allen song.
I’m near the max now.Your commitment is remarkable and THANK YOU! Many at FR are aware of the "300 Club" of loyal FReepers who contribute at least $100/Qtr to fund Free Republic. Cruz for President had its own version of 300+ people that gave the maximum of $2700 in the first nine days of the campaign.Keep the fundraising up, folks who can. We need to scare off the also-rans, consolidate conservatives, and fund the later rounds that go broader.
For others reading this, I want to stress that the NUMBER of people donating to Cruz for President is just as important as the amount donated per person. More than you imagine, the Cruz campaign was ecstatic that of the $4.3 million raised in 9 days in March, 95% came from donations of $100 or less. A total of 51,081 contributions were made from 46,871 individual donors across all 50 states.
Might be too early for that but I do see your point.
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