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CRUZ or LOSE!Posted on 03/27/2015 8:35:25 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
A broad cross-section of Republican officeholders, major donors and conservative pundits are agreed on one thing: Ted Cruz has no chance to be elected president. The junior senator from Texas marked the fifth anniversary of the signing of ObamaCare by announcing his candidacy for the presidency today at Liberty University in Lynchburg, Virginia and no one in the chattering classes thinks he has a prayer of being sworn into office as commander-in-chief in January 2017. Just about everyone thinks his positions on the issues are too extreme and that his advocacy of the 2013 government shutdown and the complete antipathy of the rest of the Senate and the party establishment make it impossible for him to win. Even those who sympathize with his politics tend to agree that he just isn’t likeable enough to gain his party’s nomination, let alone win a general election against a Democrat. But his detractors need to understand something. As his announcement this morning showed us, he is a fabulous speaker and a dynamic personality with a unique appeal. The scenario that Cruz is hoping will make him the GOP nominee may be a very shot indeed but it is not crazy.
When stacked against those of his Republican competitors, it’s easy to see why few think the Texan has much of a chance. The party elites that are, as Nate Cohn rightly points out in his New York Times Upshot column about Cruz today, still important to winning nominations, are united in their opposition to him. He will raise money but nowhere near as much as Jeb Bush or even other conservatives like Scott Walker. Nor can he claim to be the sole candidate seeking to appeal to Tea Party conservatives, who tend to adore him, or even the evangelicals that he is courting by announcing at the school founded by the Rev. Jerry Falwell.
Cruz is also widely hated by most of his Senate colleagues and tends not to come across as a guy most people would want to have a beer with. Last week’s viral story about Cruz supposedly scaring a little girl at a New Hampshire event was inaccurate and unfair. If anything, a look at the tape of the encounter showed him to be sensitive and actually quite caring about the child’s reaction to his rhetoric about President Obama setting the world on fire. But it resonated because that is how most adults, Republicans and Democrats alike, tend to think about him. Indeed, I think the likeability factor is a much more important obstacle for Cruz to overcome than his ideology. As a recent Wall Street Journal poll illustrated, the number of those who can envision supporting him barely outnumber those who say they can never back him.
But even if admit up front that Cruz’s path to victory is as steep as can be imagined, the party establishment and others that loathe him would still be foolish to underestimate him or his power to play a serious role in the GOP race.
If there is anything that we have learned about him in the two and a half years since he began throwing bombs in the Senate and upsetting his colleagues, it is that Cruz is utterly undaunted by criticism or long odds. In the view of more moderate conservatives, that makes him unwilling to listen to common sense. But it also gives him a certain power that more realistic figures lack. You may think Ted Cruz is over-the-top but he does not care.
He brings to the race certain strengths that his rivals lack. As I noted backed in December, “If you’re going to make comparisons to 2012 candidates, imagine someone with the folksiness of Rick Perry (albeit in a Cuban Texan version), the passion of Santorum on populist and social conservative issues, the debating skill of Newt Gingrich, and the wonkish grasp of details of a Mitt Romney and you have a fair idea of what Cruz brings to the table.”
Though debates will not be as ubiquitous this time as they were in 2012, they will still be crucial. Cruz’s ability to eviscerate opponents is something his opponents should fear. Nor is he, despite his embrace of suicidal tactics like the shutdown, someone who will embrace crackpot positions on vaccines or show ignorance about foreign policy.
Jeb Bush is the darling of the establishment. Scott Walker is in a sweet spot that can embrace the party establishment, Tea Partiers and evangelicals. Rand Paul has the libertarians. Marco Rubio is the strongest voice on foreign policy and can also appeal to both wings of the party. Mike Huckabee will compete with him for the populist vote and Rick Santorum for religious conservatives. Others will have their own strengths. But the sheer size and strength of this field (especially compared to 2012) makes is more likely that someone we now consider an outlier may break through. Cruz isn’t likely to be the one who will do so but neither is it insane to think that he might. Others also face long odds, but few have his potent political skills.
The problem for those writing off Cruz’s candidacy as absurd is that the very same factors that make him so unappealing to his Senate colleagues and the party establishment can endear him to grassroots voters. He may be inexperienced in office with only two years in the Senate on his resume but he is also untainted by the compromises that responsible officials must make because he has never compromised on any issue. If Cruz can tap into the Tea Party base and become its standard bearer, he will be a formidable candidate in the early primary states. After that, it will be anyone’s game. Right now, that’s about as realistic a scenario as any of his competitors can claim.
None of that changes the fact that it is hard to see how he could win a general election and Republicans who want to win are not only never going to consider him but will move heaven and earth to stop him if he does get close to the nomination. But they should not assume that this is a possibility they’ll never have to contemplate. The Ted Cruz scenario for Republicans is a very long shot but those chuckling about his early announcement are making assumptions that the party base may not back up.
If Obama can win, anybody can win.
I think too many people are lumping in his chances at nomination and his chances of being elected President.
His chance of getting elected once nominated even against Hillary are quite good. Getting the nomination is Cruz’s #1 problem now.
“In the view of more moderate conservatives, that makes him unwilling to listen to common sense. “
There is a name for a moderate conservative. It’s called a liberal. This is the problem with “Conserative commentators.” They believe you can run from right of the middle and wing. You cannot. Ask McCain, Dole and Romney.
The tagine? Is your cat helping you type?
A huge grass roots funding will help take a few degrees off the slope - as it levels out, it might actually tip in the other direction. He announced early and we can give him a solid boost early.
Every single one of us have the opportunity every day to engage someone and let them know who Ted Cruz is. Enthusiasm has a way of being contagious. Every time someone laments the condition of our country, tell them why this man gives us real hope. Grassroots has been the key to every historical movement. Find out what their major concern is and tell them what Ted’s position is. We are far more potent than a media that no one trusts.
I think FR should have a ‘pitch’ page for the candidates freepers wish to pitch... help us distill the info ...I sure would benefit...otherwise I am tongue tied....like a list something I could memorize
CRUZ or LOSE!I predict a 46-48 state shellacking, if he is the won.
If a punk like Ibama can become President anyone can.
True, but they’ll need Axlegrease and Plouffy doing the dirty work. I’m convinced those guys could elect Charles Manson as POTUS.
I have watched Mr. Cruz and his views. I do not see anything that looks ‘extreme’ to me. They look more like ‘common sense’ views/issues.
I heard an interesting statement, I think from Mark Davis.
Obama proved that a one term senator can win the Presidency, which means Cruz could do it too.
Several different Freepers post such things on threads, but perhaps such a thread, just for reference would help you and many others. I don't wish to steal those Freepers' thunder, so the next time I see such a post, I'll ask that Freepr/s to start such a page.
Somet5hing = Something
Where are “leftys” talking points? I must have missed them.
If you go to other sites, where everyone can post, the lefties all say the same things; oh a word may be changed, here and there, but it’s the same damned cant over and over again...no matter what the poster’s nic is, or the subject.
OFA does send out talking point sheets and for all I know, so does the DNC, etc.! How they get them, I don’t know, but they all have them, or copy what other lefty posters post.
HA....I thought you were referring to a FREEPER named “lefty”....
Mitt Romney was the darling of the establishment...
and we see where that got us.
Oooooooooooh...no, I wasn’t; sorry to not have been more clear.
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