Posted on 03/27/2015 7:19:49 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
This might surprise you, but it appears that key GOP activists and influential party members do not see Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) as having much of a shot at becoming the party’s 2016 nominee. Now, anyone looking at the early state polls at this stage of the race might say the same thing. Cruz is not polling competitively in Iowa as of today, and he’s certainly not over-performing in New Hampshire. But these “insiders” who responded to a Politico Caucus survey don’t think Cruz can win either primary state. What’s more, they do not believe he can prevail against Hillary Clinton if he were to miraculously win the nomination.
The quotes provide to Politico via unnamed but reportedly influential figures within the party are illuminating, and they reflect a conventional wisdom about Cruz that appears accurate: He is a deeply polarizing figure, even among Republicans.
“The shutdown made him infamous to most and loved by a vocal few,” said a New Hampshire Republican.
“His supporters see his fight as a badge of honor,” said an Iowa Republican. “Undecided caucus-goers will likely see his shutdown strategy as a major blunder.”
…
“His fighter mentality will play well with conservative activists and those who listen to talk radio,” said an Iowa Republican, “but it’s not like he has scored any real accomplishment on rolling back the Affordable Care Act.”“Ted Cruz has a legislative record that has no positive accomplishments,” said another. “He will be in a field with many people that can point to positive accomplishments, either as governors or senators.”
“He is the reason Democrats can call Republicans ‘the Party of No,’” said a third Republican.
Sometimes, the conventional wisdom isn’t wrong, and Cruz’s approach to legislating since he took a seat in the Senate 26 months ago has been confrontational, self-aggrandizing, and alienating to adversaries and allies alike. Just because Cruz is a polarizing figure who fails to appeal to Republicans outside the most deeply conservative elements of the GOP coalition, however, does not mean that this talented orator and capable operator cannot outperform expectations.
In the commentary community, the race for the GOP nomination in 2016 has increasingly come to be characterized by lanes; a moderate lane, a tea party lane, an evangelical lane, a libertarian lane, et cetera. Rarely do these lanes merge. At least, not until the early state primaries are out of the way. For The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake, Cruz is better positioned than anyone in the field of Republican candidates to dominate multiple lanes.
So, Cruz is, without question, the dominant figure in the Tea Party lane. What that means — particularly in the early stages of the primary process in places like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina — is that he will likely be able to win, place or show repeatedly, wracking up enough strong-ish performances to keep going even as the Establishment lane and the Social Conservative lane begin to thin out. (Cruz’s ability to raise money, which remains a question, is less important for him than it is for other candidates — especially those in the Establishment lane. His people are going to be for him no matter how much — or little — communicating he does with them.)
And, according to The New York Times, Cruz’s strategy is to stay in his tea party lane, so to speak, while building inroads with the social conservative community. He reckons that this is the cycle that the Republican Party’s moderate wing, crowded as it is with capable 2016 prospects, will fail to unite behind one candidate in time to muscle the more conservative Republican out of the race.
Mr. Cruz’s early entry into the race, according to people briefed on his strategy, is a deliberate effort to recapture the attention of his party’s right wing as he seeks to build a coalition of Tea Party conservatives and evangelical Christians to try to cut through a crowded field of Republican contenders.
Does Cruz have the ability to prove all those voices who doubt his staying power wrong? That remains to be seen. The junior Texas senator has his own crowded field of conservative and evangelical candidates to best before he can make the case to the GOP electorate to take a chance on a firebrand in 2016. If the commentary class is right and the GOP insiders are wrong, however, Cruz could be in this race well into the spring of next year, if not longer.
Ha! I hope that a LOT of democrats come out in support for him, show these “insiders” that the people have been waiting for a candidate that they can trust. It is one thing for a candidate to say what you think are the important things, but it’s another for a candidate to stick to his word. Even people who might not agree with everything a candidate does stand for can appreciate honesty. You know what they WILL stand for and that they will not lie to you, which is the current situation in the beltway. These politicos think that the people expect them to lie to them and they can get away with it.
GWB was a big exception to the rule that, going back to Goldwater, GOP contenders never get the nomination on the first try. But he had his father’s contacts to rely on, to fundraise and strategize for a national campaign. And the Bush name is an illustrious one, even to the point that Jeb Bush is automatically a contender for the GOP nod despite the disastrous poll numbers GWB racked up as his presidency ended. Cruz is pretty much out there on his own.
Remember, the average low info voter will vote on looks, and “What can you give me?” instead of who is the most qualified.
I remember the Kennedy-Nixon debates from 1960.
Those who heard the debate on radio realized NIXON wiped the floor with Kennedy.
Those who saw it on TV saw a Presidential Kennedy and a Shifty NIXON.
ROMNEY failed because of ONE thing. He is a Mormon.
I do like that he knocked Dewhurst off.
These are the same insiders who brought us the Romney campaign, and the asinine image of asshat Karl Rove protesting the Ohio call on Election Night 2012.
Hundreds of millions of dollars flushed down the toilet in an effort to beat an eminently beatable incumbent, and after royally screwing-up they want us to take them seriously? Pah!
We’ve tried things their way for how many cycles now? These “insiders” can sit and spin.
I would have liked it better if he had run against George P Bush and knocked *him* off.
Jebster, he’s the designated loser this time around.
The Democrat in an R jersey that we’re supposed to vote for or we’re electing a Democrat.
This is like my 4 time married mother giving me advice on finding a husband....
If we follow the advice of these guys, we are doomed to defeat.
Cruz or lose. If thus man isn’t our nominee then I will sit out the election for the first time in my life and get busy on my stocks and ammo.
and just WHO are the insiders? the libs? the rinos? We haven’t even began to decide, so whoever the INSIDERS are, go to hell !!!
WE are individuals and WE will decide for ourselves, we don’t need you INSIDERS doing our thinking for US!
I am not a GOP insider and I do not think Cruz can top 15% if that. Walker has a much better chance and he is no where near as divisive.
Tell me all the conservative types who put their hat in the ring in 2008 and 2012?
He has all of 5.6 % now.
Cruz Will Lose.
From the EXPERTS who told us Romney,McCain could win
The GOP wants another Romney type ... like Jeb Bush.
How did that work out for them last time?
Idiots.
“Insiders” are out of touch with the GOP conservitive base, this is to be expected.
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