Posted on 02/25/2015 6:54:01 AM PST by SeekAndFind
An early look at likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants shows a strong conservative tilt as Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker leads the pack with 25 percent, twice as high as his nearest rival, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Voters who identify as "very conservative" make up 45 percent of the caucus participants surveyed by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Tea Party supporters make up 32 percent of likely caucus-goers and Walker gets 33 percent of that Tea Party vote.
There is a horse race for second place, with 13 percent for U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, 11 percent each for Michigan physician Ben Carson and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and 10 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. No other candidate is above 5 percent and 9 percent are undecided.
Walker gets 13 percent when caucus participants name their second choice, with 11 percent for Bush and 9 percent each for former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Paul.
In a combination of first and second choices, Walker tops the list with 37 percent, with 21 percent for Paul, 20 percent for Bush, 19 percent for Carson and 18 percent for Huckabee.
"Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is taking the Republican political world by storm," said Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant Director Peter A. Brown. "He's gone from being unknown outside Wisconsin to the hot candidate, poised to become the front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination. Front-runner status would make it easier for Gov. Walker to raise money and recruit top talent for his staff, but it also puts a target on his back.
"Perhaps most impressive about Walker's numbers is that 57 percent view him favorably to only 7 percent who view him unfavorably - a heck of a first impression."
"It's worth remembering that former Sen. Rick Santorum and former Gov. Mike Huckabee won the last two caucuses and neither came close to the nomination," Brown added.
Perhaps the biggest losers in Iowa are Bush and New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie as each gets 26 percent when likely Republican Caucus participants name a candidate they "would definitely not support."
Christie and Bush also are lowest in favorability, with mixed or negative scores: 41 - 40 percent favorable for Bush; 30 - 54 percent favorable for Christie; 57 - 7 percent favorable for Walker; 51 - 5 percent favorable for Carson; 46 - 19 percent favorable for U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas; 63 - 24 percent favorable for Huckabee; 41 - 9 percent favorable for Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal; 17 - 6 percent favorable for Ohio Gov. John Kasich, with 77 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion; 58 - 22 percent for Paul; 56 - 22 percent favorable for Perry; 48 - 15 percent favorable for U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida; 54 - 23 percent favorable for former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania. Walker gets 26 percent of men and 22 percent of women. Voters who say they are moderate or liberal go 21 percent for Paul and 17 percent for Bush.
By a 64 - 21 percent margin, likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants prefer a presidential candidate with experience as a governor or administrator, rather than experience as a Senator or member of Congress.
Only 8 percent of caucus participants are less likely to vote for Walker because he does not have a college degree, while 82 percent say that makes no difference in their vote. Because his father and brother were presidents, 25 percent say they are less likely to vote for Jeb Bush, but 63 percent say it makes no difference.
From February 16 - 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 623 likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percent. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.
I’m still going for Ted Cruz. They are setting Walker up so they can knock him down.
Increasingly, Scott Walker’s influence is fraying nerves among those in the political commentary community, as though the galling and naked effort by the press to tar Walker as both bigoted and cowardly didn’t give that away. Some in the media who do not hide their liberal proclivities have determined to do away with nuance and are sounding the alarm bells. Take, for example, the New Yorker’s John Cassidy who recently called the sleepy-eyed, soft-spoken Wisconsinite “dangerous.”
“In a more just world, Walker’s indecent and craven antics would disqualify him from playing any further role in the Presidential race,” Cassidy wrote. This harsh verdict having been reached after Walker replied “I don’t know” to questions involving issues that have nothing to do whatsoever with governance. “But in the current political environment, his tactics, far from hurting him, may well bolster a candidacy that is already thriving.”
He is right about that, although Cassidy apparently hasn’t considered that excessive bouts of pique like this column are creating the very conditions he laments.
Cassidy went on to denounce Walker as an “odious politician whose ascension to the Presidency would be a disaster,” but he also warned that his unassuming origins and his status as self-made nouveau roturier will contrast sharply with Hillary Clinton’s inauthenticity and familiarity.
Several days ago, electoral politics analyst Brandon Finnigan observed that the nation’s progressive political establishment created the Scott Walker that today threatens to upend conventional political wisdom. “The attempt to boot Walker by Wisconsin progressives and labor activists accomplished a rare feat: absolute party unity,” Finnigan wrote. He observed that Walker’s three massive statewide victories created the crucible in which a formidable candidate was forged.
Now that Walker has emerged from his Badger State incubator fully capable of waging a competitive campaign against Hillary Clinton for the presidency, the press is going about consolidating the support of the rest of the country’s Republicans behind Walker. Hounding the governor with the aim of forcing him to denounce his fellow Republicans or seeking to compel him to genuflect at the altar of political civility by asking for his subjective thoughts on President Barack Obama’s level of devotion as a Christian have fostered a sense of sympathy for Walker. Despite the fact that he declined to answer either question, the press went about decoding his responses, dramatically pantomiming personal slight over the results of their decryption efforts, and insisting that Walker had disqualified himself from the presidency. This absurd display is a familiar one to Republicans. The GOP can see the target the media has painted on Walker’s back, and nothing so energizes Republicans like the prospect of rewarding one of their own for offending the delicate coastal sensibilities of the political press.
If the progressive left made Scott Walker into a presidential candidate, the media is busily elevating him into the top tier. If the progressive community is not careful, they will destroy Scott Walker all the way into the Oval Office.
I want walker to challenge Jeb. hopefully it will split the GOPe vote.
I’ll take either or both! Get John Bolton in there somehow too. But I think Cruz can handle the media best...he does need to lighten up a bit to warm up to the stupid middle.
I prefer Cruz, but will take Walker. If it is Jebby or Mittens I will be sitting this one out.
And the thing is that some of us see it coming from a mile away. Not sure if Walker does.
Luckily for him the media shot themselves in the foot the first go around. They will be back though.
I’m for Wlaker. Cruz wife is a CFRer, Goldman Sachs transnationalist.
Who’s setting him up? The media or the party poobahs?
Agree. It's way too early.
The media. They are positioning him as the front runner and biggest competitor to Bush so that when they destroy him, and they are sure they can, Bush can cruise to a primary victory where he can get crushed by the Democratic nominee.
Wow, could be a sea change.
People are fed up with big names and slick rhetoric.
They want results.
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