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The $500 Million Powerball Jackpot And Why It's Not Worth Buying A Ticket
BI ^ | 2-11-2015 | Andy Kiersz

Posted on 02/11/2015 2:49:21 PM PST by blam

Andy Kiersz
February 11, 2015

The Powerball lottery drawing for Wednesday evening has an estimated jackpot prize of $500 million.

While that's a huge amount of money, buying a ticket is still probably a losing proposition.

Consider the expected value

When trying to evaluate the outcome of a risky, probabilistic event like the lottery, one of the first things to look at is "expected value". The expected value of a randomly decided process is found by taking all of the possible outcomes of the process, multiplying each outcome by its probability, and adding all of these numbers up. This gives us a long-run average value for our random process.

Expected value is helpful for assessing gambling outcomes: If my expected value for playing the game, based on the cost of playing and the probabilities of winning different prizes, is positive, then in the long run, the game will make me money. If expected value is negative, then this game is a net loser for me.

(snip)

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: gambling; lottefy; odds; powerball
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To: blam

That’s way too much money. I’ll take my chances on the state lotto for $5 million. Slightly better odds. My best ever was 4 of 6 numbers matched, won $56.


121 posted on 02/11/2015 4:38:42 PM PST by 38special (For real, y'all.)
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To: RandallFlagg
It's never too late......

What do you have that suppressor screwed to?

122 posted on 02/11/2015 4:40:41 PM PST by Osage Orange (I have strong feelings about gun control. If there's a gun around, I want to be controlling it.)
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To: Tijeras_Slim

If I had a million dollars
Well, I’d buy you a fur coat
But not a real fur coat, that’s cruel


123 posted on 02/11/2015 4:44:16 PM PST by Smellin Salt
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To: Tijeras_Slim

You have good comebacks! I’ve made mental note of them for future use.


124 posted on 02/11/2015 4:45:30 PM PST by LostInBayport (When there are more people riding in the cart than there are pulling it, the cart stops moving...)
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To: Osage Orange

My Springfield XDm .45 bitone. If you look at my posting history, there’s a pic somewhere.


125 posted on 02/11/2015 4:48:33 PM PST by RandallFlagg (Vote fraud solution: Stake, Rope, Sugar and Bullet Ants.)
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To: aumrl
The thing is you should buy tickets when the pot is smaller. Odds improve greatly.

How so? The numbers are going to be the same set of winning numbers whether there are ten ticket buyers or 10 billion ticket buyers.

126 posted on 02/11/2015 4:48:57 PM PST by Lizavetta
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To: moovova
If they would divide up the $500 million into 500 separate $1,000,000 prizes...I’d buy tickets.

Sales would skyrocket. It is beyond me why no one has done that here. They do something like that in Spain, I think.
127 posted on 02/11/2015 4:50:30 PM PST by LostInBayport (When there are more people riding in the cart than there are pulling it, the cart stops moving...)
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To: Tijeras_Slim

It’s technically a tax on those who don’t understand statistics.

However, on an incidental play like the last few 300+ million, what am I out..a few bucks. I could waste the same six dollars on a single drink at the bar.

It’s worth what I have into it...a small entertainment value, for the chance at serious wealth.

Most who win lotteries and end up broke, waste the money on hookers, drugs and gambling.


128 posted on 02/11/2015 4:52:11 PM PST by Ouderkirk (To the left, everything must evidence that this or that strand of leftist theory is true)
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To: aumrl

That would be incorrect....the odds are always the same.


129 posted on 02/11/2015 4:55:28 PM PST by Osage Orange (I have strong feelings about gun control. If there's a gun around, I want to be controlling it.)
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To: CharlesWayneCT

I think you can figure about 1/3 the pot.....in most states.


130 posted on 02/11/2015 4:59:53 PM PST by Osage Orange (I have strong feelings about gun control. If there's a gun around, I want to be controlling it.)
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To: Zuse
If I win I’m going to buy myself a Congressman.

Senators are cheaper.

131 posted on 02/11/2015 5:03:55 PM PST by MaxMax (Pay Attention and you'll be pissed off too! FIRE BOEHNER, NOW!)
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To: CharlesWayneCT
You want a buzz kill..?

Took my girl to see a movie this afternoon...I'd heard it was good. A comedy I was told.

So here we are sitting in this movie house watching "Birdman"...kept waiting for the humor. This movie was pure TORTURE!~! And we walked out....

Now THAT was a buzz kill!!

LOL!!!

132 posted on 02/11/2015 5:09:18 PM PST by Osage Orange (I have strong feelings about gun control. If there's a gun around, I want to be controlling it.)
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To: blam
While that's a huge amount of money, buying a ticket is still probably a losing proposition.

Of course it is! However buying a ticket is a guarantee that you MIGHT win while not buying one is a definite guarantee that you won't win...........

I forgot the drawing was tonight otherwise I would have purchased a few............

133 posted on 02/11/2015 5:13:19 PM PST by Hot Tabasco (Uncle Sy: "Beavers are like Ninjas, they only come out at night and they're hard to find")
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To: MplsSteve

You have a better chance with lightning!


134 posted on 02/11/2015 5:14:45 PM PST by US_MilitaryRules (The last suit you wear has no pockets!)
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To: MplsSteve
I bought one. Yeah, my chances of winning are just about nil - but what the hell?

Look at the bright side, your chances of winning were a hell of a lot better than mine since I forgot to purchase a ticket.......LOL!

135 posted on 02/11/2015 5:15:20 PM PST by Hot Tabasco (Uncle Sy: "Beavers are like Ninjas, they only come out at night and they're hard to find")
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To: blam
"While that's a huge amount of money, buying a ticket is still probably a losing proposition."

If you don't buy one, it's guaranteed.

I'll spring for two bucks for a shot at dreamland.

136 posted on 02/11/2015 5:16:36 PM PST by Colonel_Flagg (You're either in or in the way.)
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To: blam

we got 20 bucks worth


137 posted on 02/11/2015 5:19:09 PM PST by al baby (Hi Mom)
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To: Tijeras_Slim

Yes it is. Lottery money coming in. 1/2 goes to the gov schools, etc... The other half to the winner! Oh yea the gov gets 1/2 of that to. That means if you win you get about 25% of total sales and the government gets 75%! And if you don’t spend it all before you die, they get over half of that to. Aren’t lotteries fun! Oops! I mean a great investment! lol


138 posted on 02/11/2015 5:20:43 PM PST by US_MilitaryRules (The last suit you wear has no pockets!)
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To: BBB333

That’s one of the things I’ve thought about if I won something that big! Million dollar donation to Free Republic? Yep! Wouldn’t that make some lib heads EXPLODE!? I’m just hoping to contribute to this freepathon before it’s over now that my hubby is employed again (with a GOOD job!).


139 posted on 02/11/2015 5:21:16 PM PST by Mama Shawna
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To: Tijeras_Slim

ROTLMAO!!!


140 posted on 02/11/2015 5:23:41 PM PST by moehoward
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