The beauty of the Academy is that their votes are private. Undoubtedly, there will be many Academy members saying, "Let someone else vote for Selma. I'm not. I'm voting for American Sniper (or Birman or Boyhood or whatever)."
Personally, I don't expect AS to win but I don't expect Selma to win either. I'm guessing the Academy will play it safe with one of the other two films I mentioned taking home the big awards.
I’m expecting Selma after all the stink by the racialists who complained of zero black nominees. It seems to me the voters will throw this bone to the race hustlers to shut them up.
We watched boyhood last weekend. It was very well done. I would recommend it. They filmed it over Twelve years with the same actors(2002-2014). I have never seen anything like it.
Be warned, it is long.