Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

The reason oil could drop as low as $20 per barrel
Reuters ^ | December 19, 2014 | Anatole Kaletsky

Posted on 12/19/2014 12:11:58 PM PST by C19fan

How low can it go — and how long will it last? The 50 percent slump in oil prices raises both those questions and while nobody can confidently answer the first question (I will try to in a moment), the second is pretty easy.

Low oil prices will last long enough for one of two events to happen. The first possibility, the one most traders and analysts seem to expect, is that Saudi Arabia will re-establish OPEC’s monopoly power once it achieves the true geopolitical or economic objectives that spurred it to trigger the slump. The second possibility, one I wrote about two weeks ago, is that the global oil market will move toward normal competitive conditions in which prices are set by the marginal production costs, rather than Saudi or OPEC monopoly power. This may seem like a far-fetched scenario, but it is more or less how the oil market worked for two decades from 1986 to 2004.

(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.reuters.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Foreign Affairs; Russia; Syria; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: crimea; donetsk; energy; iran; lebanon; oil; opec; ruble; russia; saudiarabia; syria; ukraine
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-8081-83 next last
To: Paladin2

There are stations around selling alcohol-free gasoline; it’s slightly more expensive, but the increased mileage usually offsets the higher price per gallon.


21 posted on 12/19/2014 12:39:15 PM PST by Redbob (W.W.J.B.D.: "What Would Jack Bauer Do?")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: Monty22002

Agree... the supply and demand aspect of Oil effects it about 10%. The major factors are geo-political... and its been that way for decades.


22 posted on 12/19/2014 12:40:05 PM PST by kjam22 (my music video "If My People" at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74b20RjILy4)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Jewbacca

Exactly.


23 posted on 12/19/2014 12:41:34 PM PST by Wyatt's Torch
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: vpintheak

And let’s not forget, our Fearless Leader (”Fearful Leader?”) has hugely devalued the dollar, thus hugely increasing the cost of imported crude and gasoline - and of course, everything else as well.


24 posted on 12/19/2014 12:41:54 PM PST by Redbob (W.W.J.B.D.: "What Would Jack Bauer Do?")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: Redbob; Red Badger
Congradulations Redbob for stating the obvious reply.

It did rise up and briefly reach today's price, but fell back down in 2004.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

25 posted on 12/19/2014 12:47:48 PM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: Paladin2
Pure-Gas.org lists locations that sell 100% gasoline. They list them by state and city.

In our area the marinas, on the fresh water lakes, all sell gasoline with no ethanol. But many of them are not listed at the Pure-Gas web site.

26 posted on 12/19/2014 12:56:11 PM PST by TYVets
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: C19fan

On the other hand, propane is going thru the roof.


27 posted on 12/19/2014 12:59:21 PM PST by who knows what evil? (Yehovah saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Redbob

Seems like a decade ago.............


28 posted on 12/19/2014 12:59:38 PM PST by Red Badger (If you compromise with evil, you just get more evil..........................)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: Red Badger

The KSA is selling below production cost. Their production cost is around $50 or so per BBL.

They have $800B in reserves, so they can do this for a while.


29 posted on 12/19/2014 1:04:04 PM PST by RinaseaofDs
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Red Badger
Makes you wonder, if they can sell it for $50 a barrel now, why couldn’t they 10 years ago?.............

they could have except that OPEC controlled the market because they controlled supply. With the Obama administration's efforts to keep oil production low in the U.S., they ,(OPEC), could maneuver the oil prices as they wished, and they wished them high.Now that independent oil producers in this country have ignored Obama, advanced new techniques such as Fracking, and created an overwhelming new supply of oil at a reasonable price, the middle east is in a panic. They keep the price low now to attempt to put the U.S. out of the production business....it is more expensive to explore and develop new sources that to just pump existing ones....won't happen, the prices will stay low for a little while and they gradually increase to where they belong and in my opinion that is about 60-70 dollars per bbl.

30 posted on 12/19/2014 1:04:48 PM PST by terycarl ( common sense prevails over all)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: RinaseaofDs

They’ll havta do without that new RR every six months................poor babies...........


31 posted on 12/19/2014 1:18:06 PM PST by Red Badger (If you compromise with evil, you just get more evil..........................)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: thackney

But when the price goes back up again, the drillers will be back on the market..........up,down,up down,like a roller coaster..............


32 posted on 12/19/2014 1:20:24 PM PST by Red Badger (If you compromise with evil, you just get more evil..........................)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: who knows what evil?
Yup.

People need propane. Best price for my PADD (2) is usually 1st week of September. It varies, but it will rise steadily until march and then decline through summer.

People do not need gasoline, except those of us who are still working. Most folks only need enough gas to go to the grocery store to use their food stamps.

33 posted on 12/19/2014 1:23:22 PM PST by fireforeffect (A kind word and a 2x4, gets you more than just a kind word.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: Red Badger

Of course, as it always has been.

The ultimate cure for high oil prices is caused by high oil prices.

The ultimate cure for low oil prices is caused by low oil prices.

It really is supply and demand, combined with a market with limited elasticity and restricted ability for fast growth of supply.


34 posted on 12/19/2014 1:25:03 PM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: Red Badger

Price fixing.


35 posted on 12/19/2014 1:29:37 PM PST by muglywump (Seven days without laughter makes one weak.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: who knows what evil?
On the other hand, propane is going thru the roof.

Where?

It has fallen nearly 50% in 3 months for the suppliers.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Residential prices are dropping slightly nearly everywhere.

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_wfr_a_EPLLPA_PRS_dpgal_w.htm

36 posted on 12/19/2014 1:34:05 PM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: thackney

It’s like feeding monkeys.
Throw one peanut and they all pile on to get it.
Throw a hand full and they each seek their own............


37 posted on 12/19/2014 1:35:17 PM PST by Red Badger (If you compromise with evil, you just get more evil..........................)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: thackney

Not in Red Hampshire...up 80 cents per gallon since mid-October...for consumers, that is.


38 posted on 12/19/2014 1:40:14 PM PST by who knows what evil? (Yehovah saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]

To: central_va
"Dang I may have to buy a Hemi Challenger......"

This could change your mind?


39 posted on 12/19/2014 1:42:10 PM PST by TexasGator
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: who knows what evil?
Interesting, the state average doesn't show that climb.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

40 posted on 12/19/2014 1:43:50 PM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-8081-83 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson