Saudi Arabia’s oil war against Iran and Russia

The New York Post ^ | Sunday, December 14, 2014 | Ralph Peters

[Star Traveler]

Good for Saudi Arabia, doing to Iran what Obama won't!

[Democrat_media]

I think it’s Saudi Arabia’s war against U.S.A. oil producers

The threat that is Islam: the Muslim plan for world domination.

http://www.nowtheendbegins.com/pages/iran/muslims_plan_for_world_dominance.htm

[thackney]

This price plunge has been driven by Saudi Arabia,

Driven by doing nothing? They haven't raised their production levels, that is the US and to a lesser amount, Canada.

[justa-hairyape]

The drop in oil price hurts all producers cause they have fixed costs. The drop in the ruble value verses the dollar helps Russian oil producers cause they sell in dollars and their costs are in rubles.

[Star Traveler]

That is a “side benefit” for Saudi Arabia, but even that side benefit won’t make any difference for shale oil. They’ll pick right back up again, as the price climbs up and some shale oil will be okay at $40 a barrel from what I read.

The real damage is to Iran, and I’m cheering Saudi Arabia on ... :-) ...

[fatez]

Good for Saudi Arabia, doing to Iran what Obama won't!

While I understand your sentiments and agree with you, this could also backfire (the law of unintended consequences)...

With the Russian economy cratering, it might be time for Putin to prop up oil prices and his own image by starting a war. Iran may do the same. I am sure that Putin is already blaming the sanctions for his bad economy and will demagogue this issue. This may be the fuse that lights a world war...

Consumers definitely benefit as do India and China. Russian is definitely getting pounded.

[Star Traveler]

Doing nothing in a glut is “doing something” ... :-) ...

[thackney]

So how is Saudi Arabia driving it any differently than any other country in the world that isn’t cutting production?

[Old Teufel Hunden]

"With the Russian economy cratering, it might be time for Putin to prop up oil prices and his own image by starting a war. Iran may do the same."

That is my fear also. Russia rolling tanks into her former satallite neighbors. Iran could try to close off the Straits of Hormuz which would entail a Naval war on the level of Operation Preying Mantiss. I'm not as worried about Iran because we know how that little sea battle in the 80's turned out and they are weaker now than then. However, Russia rolling her tanks into countries could be a major problem and something we should be cognizant of.

[Sequoyah101]

You keep saying that they have not raised their production and you are correct. In fact, it is somewhat lower than last year.

However, not only have they not reduced production they have repeatedly released pronouncements to NOT reduce production under any circumstance and loudly announced innervating notices to all who will hear that consumption is down and will go lower when in fact it is the rate of consumption that has moderated and it is still expected to increase but not as fast as previously thought.

Basically, the Saudis are putting gasoline on a fire every time they get a chance.

[thackney]

I find it amazing that capitalists are complaining that OPEC won’t work as an effective cartel to hold back production and raise prices.

[fatez]

It wouldn’t take much to reverse the trend in oil pricing, shutting down the Strait, taking out a few Iraqi, Saudi Arabian or and Kuwaiti facilities would have a nice ripple effect. Putin knows rumors of wars are good for black gold, I think we will definitely see some saber rattling at a minimum...

[thackney]

they have repeatedly released pronouncements to NOT reduce production under any circumstance

So members yes. More members want to cut production, but it takes a unanimous vote. Saudi has expressed they are no longer willing to "take one for the team" to subsidize out of control spending by Iran, Venezuela and others.

[Star Traveler]

It’s like a price war with gas stations, if they all stay cutthroat and don’t give an inch on the price, then it keeps going ... but if a major player backs off, the others fall into line and back off, too, then the price goes back to normal.

Saudi Arabia is not “backing off” their production levels even in the face of this glut, so giving the signal to all other players to not back off either ... and Saudi Arabia is counting on being “the last man standing” (in terms of costs to them) and running everyone else into the ground ... and primarily that’s Iran and Russia.

[fatez]

I find it amazing that capitalists are complaining that OPEC won’t work as an effective cartel to hold back production and raise prices.

I have really noticed this too. I am wondering if the derivative markets are getting real squeamish and that is what we are hearing. Low energy prices are a boon. Only investors in the energy sector get knocked, but transportation and manufacturing love the low prices. As a consumer, I love it (I do have some stocks in the energy sector, but they will be fine long term).

[Old Teufel Hunden]

"It wouldn’t take much to reverse the trend in oil pricing, shutting down the Strait, taking out a few Iraqi, Saudi Arabian or and Kuwaiti facilities would have a nice ripple effect."

That used to be the case. However, look at the current Middle East instability. We have ISIS rampaging all through Iraq, the Syrian civil war and in North Africa Libya is nowhere near it's production output since the downfall of Khadaffi. If these things were happening 10 years ago, prices would have been through the roof, yet, we have an oil glut. I think that if the Iranians shut down the strait of Hormuz for a few days and then we blew the rest of their Navy apart to open it up, it would have barely a ripple in the oil market.

[fatez]

And Venezuela, remember, they are the ones that called for new quotas at the OPEC meeting in November. I bet the government in Venezuela is panicking now...

[fatez]

Yeah, which is why I think it will take the Iranians destroying a few Saudi facilities rather than the Strait. We live in interesting times...

[Democrat_media]

what they are saying and what i also think is that Saudia Arabia STATE controlled cartels artificially caused supply disruptions in the past leading to unnatural numbers. in a truly free market (free market capitalism) state controlled cartels would not restrict production for so long creating artificially high prices for so long which now lead to the bursting of the artificial bubble. in a free market without huge state controlled cartels wherein states control production rates supply would be more gradually in tune with demand and price would be more stable

[thackney]

what they are saying and what i also think is that Saudia Arabia STATE controlled cartels artificially caused supply disruptions in the past leading to unnatural numbers

You may blame Saudi for Libya's supply disruptions. But I find that Libya was the ultimate source of their eventual supply disruptions. Same with Iran and the economic sanctions.