Posted on 12/13/2014 7:30:05 AM PST by george76
Jonathan Gruber’s health care forecasting is failing in Colorado as Vermont’s Gov. Peter Shumlin prepares to use the economist’s math for single-payer health care.
As Vermonters anxiously await a Gruber-modeled financing plan for Green Mountain Care, modeling done for Colorado’s health exchange by Jonathan Gruber Associates has proven wildly erroneous.
In 2011, following Colorado’s decision to set up a state health exchange for Obamacare, the state hired Gruber to forecast enrollment trends from which the state and federal government could estimate costs.
According to a presentation delivered to the Colorado Health Benefit Exchange Board on Sept. 16, 2011, and provided to Watchdog.org, Gruber predicted Medicaid enrollment in Colorado would grow from 440,000 enrollees in 2011 to 710,000 enrollees in 2016.
Actual 2014 data reported by the Colorado Department of Health Care Policy and Financing shows the number of people enrolled in the state’s Medicaid program has grown to more than 1.1 million — a miscalculation of about 400,000 enrollees.
The miscalculation is growing rapidly, as the state reported 12,533 new Medicaid sign-ups in the two-week period between Nov. 15 and Nov. 30.
...
Jonathan Gruber’s answers to the Oversight Committee should give Vermonters pause. Governor Shumlin should fully terminate Prof. Gruber from his Vermont contract. Now that Gov. Shumlin and Vermonters have seen how deceitful and calculating he is, there is no way to trust his professional judgment or his economic modeling
(Excerpt) Read more at watchdog.org ...
so....we are all pregnant with anticipation of Herr Gruber’s return of the monies to Colorado he received for the defective work. /s
I predict that Shumlin will go right along with the plan. The socialist people of Vermont will cry loudly if he doesn’t.
Colorado gets Gruberized.
Chickenlooper couldn’t WAIT to be all progressive and all.
Putz
Health Care for Dummies.
unexpected (now can i get a phd in economics from mit?)
Too many dopers moved to Colorado.
Colorado Ping ( Let me know if you wish to be added or removed from the list.)
Yes.
Big Putz
I lived there for 8 years and my in laws live there still. I have no doubt you are correct.
It is debatable as to whether those most inept at math go into politics or economics.
in the case of Grubdork, he has managed to be a massive fail at both low IQ tasks.
The Gruber model relies on global warming.
...and a thousand answers.
The states that authorized the Medicaid expansion are going to get creamed. Our federal taxes pick up most of the tab for the first few years, but then more and more falls on the state. Then the state taxpayers get soaked.
McAuliffe has been pushing this hard in VA, but so far the legislature has said no. Examples like VT and CO are going to make it even harder for states who have resisted to adopt the expansion.
Colorado’s $800 m cost over run on this puts in in a league with Boston’s Big Dig. Plus, I guess the cost of the Medicaid expansion runs to perpetuity.
Gruber knew the state exchanges were critical to Obamacare. If he’d told the truth about what it was going to cost the state, they might have said “forget it”.
...and a thousand answers.
And NONE of them right.
Just the beginning as the illegals and other lazy lefties will move to states with the most free stuff.
Then move on to the next host when the current host dies.
Herr Gruber is as brilliant as most professors are…a legend in his own mind. Exhibit A: Barack Obama.
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