Gruber model errs in Colorado as Vermont prepares to rely on data

Jonathan Gruber’s health care forecasting is failing in Colorado as Vermont’s Gov. Peter Shumlin prepares to use the economist’s math for single-payer health care.

As Vermonters anxiously await a Gruber-modeled financing plan for Green Mountain Care, modeling done for Colorado’s health exchange by Jonathan Gruber Associates has proven wildly erroneous.

In 2011, following Colorado’s decision to set up a state health exchange for Obamacare, the state hired Gruber to forecast enrollment trends from which the state and federal government could estimate costs.

According to a presentation delivered to the Colorado Health Benefit Exchange Board on Sept. 16, 2011, and provided to Watchdog.org, Gruber predicted Medicaid enrollment in Colorado would grow from 440,000 enrollees in 2011 to 710,000 enrollees in 2016.

Actual 2014 data reported by the Colorado Department of Health Care Policy and Financing shows the number of people enrolled in the state’s Medicaid program has grown to more than 1.1 million — a miscalculation of about 400,000 enrollees.

The miscalculation is growing rapidly, as the state reported 12,533 new Medicaid sign-ups in the two-week period between Nov. 15 and Nov. 30.

Jonathan Gruber’s answers to the Oversight Committee should give Vermonters pause. Governor Shumlin should fully terminate Prof. Gruber from his Vermont contract. Now that Gov. Shumlin and Vermonters have seen how deceitful and calculating he is, there is no way to trust his professional judgment or his economic modeling

Chairman Darrel Issa has subpoenaed all documents relating to the work Gruber did in about 15 states....estimated to have earned him some $5 million.

NOTE: When Pelosi said ACA was a "jobs bill" she was right---except that Gruber got all the jobs.

Cong Issa asserted that Gruber repeatedly refused to tell the taxpayers (and Congress) the amount of taxpayer funds he received for his work on ObamaCare......and that a full accounting was required. Issa's subpoena means that Gruber (and the Dumbocrats) will be media fodder for the time being.

One FReeper----a former contracting officer in the military----posted that single source personal service contracts, especially ones of O/Care's dollar value, require an authorization document trail miles long. Good fodder for a Nobel Prize.

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UPDATE Michigan legislators will request that relevant state agencies investigate the state’s deal with Gruber...... they want to know (1) how Gruber was selected, and, (2) what services he provided for the money.

The states' selection process is crucial----(1) to scrutinize the credentials Gruber presented to states, (2) his monetary requirements, and, (3) what he based his expertise on.

“Mr. Gruber appears to be a very devious man – perhaps with a proclivity for fraud,” Michigan state Rep. McMillin said in an email.

Obama is downplaying Gruber's role, claiming he had no part in passing O/care. But if Gruber was NOT the Obamacare architect---then Gruber took money from states under false pretenses and should be prosecuted for govt fraud.

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FREEPER GAFFER INSIGHTFULLY POSTED---there is a fixed cost for the “program model” he uses and likely some sort of licensing fee. However, some of these contracts have “consulting” components which usually involve estimates of time needed. There are only about 1900-2000 work hours per year in normal situations. If you couple that with the amount of time he gets paid as an MIT professor, where did Gruber get the time to work all these contracts?

How were Gruber's contracts bid? What was the pricing structure. Did he falsify his work schedule? Was he working on simultaneous govt contracts, and getting paid as a "full-time" consultant? The WH can give out contracts however they want (e.g., sole source), but the contract eventually has to go through some sort of award audit for review and approval......

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LAUGH BREAK Can't you just hear Democrats---abject in defeat---say they had nothing to do with ACA because the Republicans stole it, changed it, and duped Dumbocrats into passing it by an historic straight party-line vote?

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